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FX – MORNING UPDATE :

FX – MORNING UPDATE :
  • By Goodwill
  • 38 Comments
  • February 22, 2024

FX – MORNING UPDATE :

USDINR opened at 82.90 Y’day and the pair traded in the 82.86-82.96 range. Spot USDINR closed at 82.96, unchanged for USD as against prior close of 82.96. RBI reference rate was fixed at 82.89 on 21/02. Feb USD/INR closed at 82.98, unchanged for USD as compared to prior day’s close of 82.98. Feb Euro/INR closed at 89.64, GBP/INR at 104.66 and Yen/INR at 55.38. 1 year USDINR fwd premia was trading at around 1.74% p.a.  FX reserves stood at USD 617 bn, as on Feb 9 th.
PAIRS RBI REF RATE (21/02)
USDINR 82.89
EURINR 89.61
GBPINR 104.67
JPYINR 55.25
In Feb, FPI’S have sold Rs 5515 Cr of Equities and bought Rs 13966 Cr of debt . In last calendar year, FII’S have net bought Rs 172853 Cr of Equities and have net bought Rs 70489 Cr of debt. Benchmark Nifty declined 141 points (0.64%) Y’day. US S&P climbed 6 points (0.13%) y’day. Nikkei declined 0.17% y’day and Hang Seng climbed 1.57% y’day. Euro is now at 1.0828, Pound at 1.2641, Yen at 150.38. Commodities: Gold is now at USD 2025 and WT1Crude at USD 78/Brent at USD 83. Interest rates: USD 10 Yr yield is at 4.30% and 3 m libor closed at 5.52%. Indian 10 yr benchmark yield closed at 7.05%. Economic news: Rupee gained to 82.86, but weakened on intra day basis to close at 82.96. Early Rupee gains was driven by moderate weakness in USD index, ahead of FOMC minutes. FOMC minutes maintained a hawkish stance, as members felt that achieving inflation target will take time and the economy is robust to warrant rate cuts. However, members also felt that rate peak has been achieved. USD declined marginally, post Fed minutes. Data highlights: – EU Consumer confidence Thursday’s calendar : – US Weekly jobless claims, existing home sales -EU PMI(mfrg-flash), PMI(services-flash) and CPI -UK PMI(mfrg-flash) and PMI(services-flash)
USD/INR    82.96 82.86
EUR/USD

1.0828

 1.0825 1.0790
GBP/USD

1.2641

 1.2642 1.2602
USD/JPY

150.38

 150.40 149.85
Daily Support/Resistance table
Currency Pairs Pivot R1 R2 R3 S1 S2 S3
EURO/USD 1.0812 1.0834 1.0847 1.0869 1.0799 1.0777 1.0765
GBP/USD 1.2628 1.2654 1.2667 1.2693 1.2614 1.2589 1.2575
USD/JPY 150.20 150.55 150.74 151.09 150 149.66 149.46
USD/INR 82.92 82.99 83.02   82.88 82.82  
MAJOR SUPPORTS/RESISTANCES AND TREND TABLE
Currency Pair Supports Resistances Trend Remarks
EURO/USD 1.07 1.0890 SIDE UP>1.0890
GBP/USD 1.2480 1.2695/1.2775 SIDE UP>1.2695
USD/JPY 148.80/146 152 UP DN<144.35
USD/INR 82.92/82.80 83.18/83.24 SIDE UP>83.35
USD/CHF 0.8730 0.8850 UP DN<0.8620
Technicals: Spot closed below 20 and 50 day average but above 200 day moving averages.20 day moving average is at 83.03. 50 day moving average is at 83.12.200 day moving average is at 82.82. Daily MACD is in buy zone. Important support is at 82.80 and important resistance is at 83.15. Spot closed  above the average level of the day. Intraday supports and resistances for Feb contract are: PP: 82.95, S1:82.91, S2:82.85, R1:83.01, R2:83.05.              Hedging strategy: Hedging decisions be taken according to comfort and accounting rates. However on directional basis, suggest the following: USD exports be hedged at 83.35/83.40. Imports be hedged at 82.92/82.80 for 3 months. CROSS CURRENCY TECHNICALS: EURO/USD: The pair is below major moving averages. Major resistance is at 1.0830/1.0890. Next major support is at 1.07. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying an important support at 1.07. Weekly MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.0450. GBP/USD: The pair is between major moving averages. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.2810 and weekly MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.25. Important support is at 1.2480. Important resistance is at 1.2695. USD/YEN: The pair is above all major moving averages. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 145.90. Important resistance is at 152 and support is at 148.80/146.
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