24/09/2018
USDINR opened gap down at 71.87 on Friday and the pair traded in the 71.76-72.46 range. Spot USDINR closed at 72.19, loss of 18 ps ps for USD as against prior close of 72.37.RBI reference rate was fixed at 71.85. Rupee gains could not sustain due to steep decline in Indian Equities. Sep USD/INR closed at 72.25, loss of 20 ps for USD as compared to prior day’s close of 72.45. Sep Euro/INR closed at 85.03, GBP/INR at 95.31 and Yen/INR at 64.11.
FII’S have sold Rs 1745 Cr of Indian Equities in Sept till 18/9 . FII’S have sold Rs 6140 Cr of Indian debt securities in Sept till 18/9 . On a cumulative basis, FII’S have sold Rupees 1745 Cr of Indian Equities till date for this calendar year and have sold Rupees 44914 Cr of Indian debt in this calendar year till date.
Benchmark Nifty declined 0.81% on Friday. DOW climbed 86 points (0.32%) on Friday. Nikkei climbed 0.82% and Hang seng climbed 1.73% on Friday.
Euro closed the week at 1.1749, Pound at 1.3069,Yen at 112.60.
Commodities: Gold is now at USD 1203 and WT1Crude at USD 70.72.
Interest rates: USD 10 Yr yield is at 3.07% and 3 m libor closed at 2.36%. Indian 10 yr benchmark yield closed at 8.08%.
Economic news: Indian Equity markets fell steeply as IL&FS defaulted on its liability obligations and a mutual fund sold DHFL bonds at discount, triggering panic in market. Hosuing finance companies and NBFC stocks fell due to default fears and higher borrowing costs. Nifty and bank Nifty plunged 3.2% and 5.7% last week. Yes bank shares fell as RBI turned down appointmemt of CEO for a further period of 3 years.
China cancelled trade talks with US as trade war and sanctions escalated between US and China. Pound reversed gains as UK PM said that there is an impasse in UK-EU talks over Brexit.
Data Highlights: – US housing starts climbed to 1.28 mn and building permits declined to 1.23mn. Existing home sales was reported at 5.34mn.
-US Weekly jobless claims declined to 201k and Phily fed mfrg index climbed to 22.9.
-EU conusmer confidence dipped to -3. PMI(mfrg) dipped marginally to 53.3 and PMI(services) climbed marginally to 54.7.
-UK CPI climbed 2.7% y/y, PPI(output)climbed 0.2% m/m and RPI climbed 3.5% y/y, Inflation data was above expectations. Retail sales climbed 0.3% m/m.
-Japanese CPI climbed 0.9% y/y.
Monday’s calendar: German Ifo survey
| USD/INR | 72.46 | 71.76 | |
| EUR/USD | 1.1749 | 1.1803 | 1.1669 |
| GBP/USD | 1.3069 | 1.3276 | 1.3056 |
| USD/JPY | 112.60 | 112.88 | 112.47 |
Daily Support/Resistance table
| CurrencyPairs | Pivot | R1 | R2 | R3 | S1 | S2 | S3 |
| EURO/USD | 1.1740 | 1.1811 | 1.1874 | 1.1677 | 1.1606 | ||
| GBP/USD | 1.3133 | 1.3211 | 1.3353 | 1.2990 | 1.2913 | ||
| USD/JPY | 112.65
|
112.83 | 113.06 |
|
112.42 | 112.24 |
|
| USD/INR | 72.13 | 72.51 | 72.83 | 71.80 | 71.43 |
MAJOR SUPPORTS/RESISTANCES AND TREND TABLE
| Curency Pair | Supports | Resistances | Trend | Remarks |
| EURO/USD | 1.1525/1.13 | 1.1790/1.1960 | SIDE | DN<1.1525 |
| GBP/USD | 1.3045/1.2990 | 1.3365 | SIDE | DN<1.2990 |
| USD/JPY | 109.70 | 113.10 | UP | DN<109.70 |
| USD/INR | 71.50/70.70 | 72.95 | UP | SIDE<71.50 |
| USD/CHF | 0.9535/0.9435 | 0.9785 | DN | UP >0.9785 |
Technicals: Spot closed above 100 and 200 day major moving averages. 20 day moving is at 71.50. 50 day moving average is at 69.94. 200 day moving average is at 66.68. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying bottom at 68.30 . Important support zone is at 71.50/70.70 and later at 70.30. Important resistance is at 72.95. Spot closed above its average level of the day.
Intra day supports and resistances for Sep contract are:
PP: 72.17,S1:71.84, S2:71.43, R1:72.58, R2:72.91.
Hedging strategy for USD/INR: Hedging decisions be taken according to comfort and accounting rates.
CROSS CURRENCY TECHNICALS:
EURO/USD: The pair is below 200 day major moving average, but above 50 day moving average. Next Major resistance is at 1.1790 and later at 1.1960. Major support is at 1.1525 and later at 1.13. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying an important bottom at 1.1525. Weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.2560.
GBP/USD: Trend is sideways in daily chart. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.2662 and weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.4375. The pair is trading below 200 day moving average. Important resistance is at 1.3364 and later at 1.3560. Important support is at 1.3045 and later at 1.2990.
USD/YEN: The pair is above major moving averages. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 109.70. Next important support is at 109.70. Important resistance is at 113.10.
