FX – MORNING UPDATE :
USDINR opened at 83.31 y’day and the pair traded in the 83.27-83.33 range. Spot USDINR closed at 83.31, loss of 3 ps for USD as against prior close of 83.34.
RBI reference rate was fixed at 83.30 on 24/04. Apr USD/INR closed at 83.32, loss of 3 ps for USD as compared to prior day’s close of 83.35. Apr Euro/INR closed at 89.01, GBP/INR at 103.65 and Yen/INR at 53.80. 1 year USDINR fwd premia was trading at around 1.62% p.a. FX reserves stood at USD 643 bn, as on April 12 th. Reserves decreased by USD 5 bn w/w.
|
PAIRS |
RBI REF RATE (24/04) |
|
USDINR |
83.30 |
|
EURINR |
89.11 |
|
GBPINR |
103.68 |
|
JPYINR |
53.77 |
In April, FPI’S have sold Rs 7608 Cr of Equities and sold Rs 10896 Cr of debt . In FY 23-24, FII’S have net bought Rs 206279 Cr of Equities and have net bought Rs 123120 Cr of debt.
Benchmark Nifty climbed 34 points (0.15%) y’day. US S&P closed flat (0%) y’day. Nikkei climbed 2.26% and Hang Seng climbed 2.21% y’day.
Euro is now at 1.0705, Pound at 1.2462, Yen at 155.45.
Commodities: Gold is now at USD 2310 and WT1Crude at USD 83/Brent at USD 88.
Interest rates: USD 10 Yr yield is at 4.65% and 3 m libor closed at 5.59%. Indian 10 yr benchmark yield closed at 7.18%.
Economic news: German Ifo Business Climate rose from 87.8 to 89.4 in April, above expectation of 88.5. Ifo said, “Companies were more satisfied with their current business. Their expectations also brightened. The economy is stabilizing, especially thanks to service providers.”
Bundesbank President and ECB Governing Council member, said that if data in the next six weeks bolster confidence in achieving ECB’s 2% inflation target, he would support a reduction in interest rates in June. However, he emphasized that “such a step would not necessarily be followed by a series of rate cuts.”
Data highlights: – US Durables order climbed 2.6% m/m.
-German Ifo survey climbed to 89.4.
Thursday’s calendar : – US Weekly jobless claims and pending home sales.
|
USD/INR |
|
83.33 |
83.27 |
|
|
EUR/USD |
1.0705 |
1.0715 |
1.0677 |
|
|
GBP/USD |
1.2462 |
1.2471 |
1.2421 |
|
|
USD/JPY |
155.45 |
155.38 |
154.73 |
Daily Support/Resistance table
|
Currency Pairs |
Pivot |
R1 |
R2 |
R3 |
S1 |
S2 |
S3 |
|
EURO/USD |
1.0696 |
1.0715 |
1.0733 |
1.0752 |
1.0677 |
1.0659 |
1.0640 |
|
GBP/USD |
1.2451 |
1.2481 |
1.2501 |
1.2531 |
1.2431 |
1.2401 |
1.2381 |
|
USD/JPY |
155.15 |
155.57 |
155.81 |
156.23 |
154.92 |
154.49 |
154.26 |
|
USD/INR |
83.30 |
83.34 |
83.36 |
|
83.27 |
83.24 |
|
MAJOR SUPPORTS/RESISTANCES AND TREND TABLE
|
Currency Pair |
Supports |
Resistances |
Trend |
Remarks |
|
EURO/USD |
1.06/1.0520 |
1.0725/1.08 |
DN |
UP>1.0885 |
|
GBP/USD |
1.2330/1.2220 |
1.2485/1.2540 |
DN |
UP>1.2540 |
|
USD/JPY |
152/150.80 |
154.80/156 |
UP |
SIDE<152 |
|
USD/INR |
83.27/83.17/83.10 |
83.47/83.70 |
UP |
SIDE<83.17 |
|
USD/CHF |
0.89 |
0.9230 |
UP |
SIDE<0.89 |
Technicals: Spot closed above major moving averages.20 day moving average is at 83.38. 50 day moving average is at 83.10. 200 day moving average is at 82.97. Daily MACD is in sell zone. Important support is at 83.27/83.17/83.10 and important resistance is at 83.47/83.70. Spot closed above the average level of the day.
Intraday supports and resistances for April contract are:
PP: 83.34, S1:83.28, S2:83.23, R1:83.40, R2:83.45.
Hedging strategy: Hedging decisions be taken according to comfort and accounting rates.
However on directional basis, suggest the following:
USD imports be hedged on decline to 83.27/83.17/83.10.
CROSS CURRENCY TECHNICALS:
EURO/USD: The pair is below major moving averages. Major resistance is at 1.0725/1.08. Next major support is at 1.06/1.0520/1.0450. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying an important top at 1.0885. Weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.1140.
GBP/USD: The pair is below major moving averages. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.2710 and weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.2895. Important support is at 1.2330/1.2230. Important resistance is at 1.2485/1.2540.
USD/YEN: The pair is above major moving averages. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 150.80. Important resistance is at 154.80/156 and support is at 152/150.80.
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