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FX – MORNING UPDATE :

FX – MORNING UPDATE :
  • By Goodwill
  • 1,182 Comments
  • February 9, 2024

FX – MORNING UPDATE :

USDINR opened at 82.95 y’day and the pair traded in the 82.90-83.01 range. Spot USDINR closed at 82.98, gain of 1 ps for USD as against prior close of 82.97.

RBI reference rate was fixed at 82.97 on 08/02. Feb USD/INR closed at 83.01, loss of 3 ps for USD as compared to prior day’s close of 83.04. Feb Euro/INR closed at 89.46, GBP/INR at 104.65 and Yen/INR at 55.87. 1 year USDINR fwd premia was trading at around 1.78% p.a.  FX reserves stood at USD 616.73 bn, as on Jan 26 th.

PAIRS

RBI REF RATE (08/02)

USDINR

82.97

EURINR

89.46

GBPINR

104.78

JPYINR

55.81

In Feb, FPI’S have bought Rs 312 Cr of Equities and bought Rs 2267 Cr of debt . In last calendar year, FII’S have net bought Rs 172853 Cr of Equities and have net bought Rs 70489 Cr of debt.

Benchmark Nifty declined 212 points (0.97%) y’day. US S&P climbed 3 points (0.06%) y’day. Nikkei climbed 2.09% and Hang Seng declined 1.27% y’day.

Euro is now at 1.0776, Pound at 1.2618, Yen at 149.27.

Commodities: Gold is now at USD 2034 and WT1Crude at USD 76.30/Brent at USD 81.30.

Interest rates: USD 10 Yr yield is at 4.15% and 3 m libor closed at 5.52%. Indian 10 yr benchmark yield closed at 7.09%.

Economic news: RBI kept repo rates unchanged at 6.5%. FY 2025 GDP is expected to be 7% and inflation is expected to taper to 4.5% in FY 25.

China’s CPI took a notable dip in January, registering decrease of -0.8% yoy, marking a significant deepening of deflationary pressures from the previous month’s -0.3% and falling short of expectation -0.5% yoy. 

Resilience of US economy is supporting USD, Yields and Stocks in tandem. This is a rare occurrence of all three asset markets moving in tandem.

Data highlights: – US Weekly jobless claims dipped to 218k.

Friday’s calendar : –  No major data release.

USD/INR

 

  

 83.01

82.90

EUR/USD

1.0776

  

1.0789

1.0741

GBP/USD

1.2618

  

1.2639

1.2572

USD/JPY

149.27

  

149.49

147.93

Daily Support/Resistance table

Currency Pairs

Pivot

R1

R2

R3

S1

S2

S3

EURO/USD

1.0769

1.0797

1.0817

1.0845

1.0749

1.0721

1.0701

GBP/USD

1.2610

1.2648

1.2677

1.2715

1.2581

1.2543

1.2514

USD/JPY

148.90

149.87

150.46

151.43

148.31

147.34

146.75

USD/INR

82.96

83.02

83.07

 

82.91

82.85

 

MAJOR SUPPORTS/RESISTANCES AND TREND TABLE

Currency Pair

Supports

Resistances

Trend

Remarks

EURO/USD

1.0770/1.0725

1.09

SIDE

UP>1.09

GBP/USD

1.2560/1.2480

1.28

SIDE

UP>1.28

USD/JPY

146/144.35

148.90/150

UP

SIDE<145.90

USD/INR

82.80

83.18/83.24

SIDE

UP>83.35

USD/CHF

0.8550

0.8850

SIDE

DN>0.8550

Technicals: Spot closed below 20 and 50 day average but above 200 day moving averages.20 day moving average is at 83.05. 50 day moving average is at 83.17.200 day moving average is at 82.78. Daily MACD is in sell zone. Important support is at 82.80 and important resistance is at 83.08/83.18. Spot closed  above the average level of the day.

Intraday supports and resistances for Feb contract are:

PP: 83.06, S1:82.95, S2:82.88, R1:83.06, R2:83.12.             

Hedging strategy: Hedging decisions be taken according to comfort and accounting rates.

However on directional basis, suggest the following:

USD exports be hedged at 83.35/83.40. Imports be hedged at 82.92/82.80 for 3 months.

CROSS CURRENCY TECHNICALS:

EURO/USD: The pair is between major moving averages. Major resistance is at 1.09/1.10. Next major support is at 1.0770/1.0725. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying an important top at 1.1275. Weekly MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.0450.

GBP/USD: The pair is between major moving averages. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.2810 and weekly MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.25. Important support is at 1.2550/1.2480. Important resistance is at 1.28/1.30.

USD/YEN: The pair is above all major moving averages. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 145.90. Important resistance is at 148.90/150 and support is at 145.90/144.35.

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