07/09/2018
USDINR opened at 71.65 y’day and the pair traded in the 71.64-72.11 range. Spot USDINR closed at 71.99, gain of 24 ps ps for USD as against prior close of 71.75.RBI reference rate was fixed at 71.92. Rupee has declined 12.5% from its high levels of 63.25 in this calendar year. Sep USD/INR closed at 72.15, gain of 23 ps for USD as compared to prior day’s close of 71.92. Sep Euro/INR closed at 83.98, GBP/INR at 93.37 and Yen/INR at 64.87.
FII’S have bought Rs 72 Cr of Indian Equities in Aug till 29/8 . FII’S have bought Rs 3801 Cr of Indian debt securities in Aug 29/8 . On a cumulative basis, FII’S have bought Rupees 2101 Cr of Indian Equities till date for this calendar year and have sold Rupees 37338 Cr of Indian debt in this calendar year till date.
Benchmark Nifty climbed 0.52% y’day. DOW climbed 20 points (0.08%) y’day. Asian markets are trading mixed today.
Euro is now at 1.1620 , Pound at 1.2925,Yen at 110.58.
Commodities: Gold is now at USD 1207 and WT1Crude at USD 67.80.
Interest rates: USD 10 Yr yield is at 2.88% and 3 m libor closed at 2.36%. Indian 10 yr benchmark yield closed at 8.06%.
Economic news: US President could announce tariff on additional USD 200 bn worth of Chinese imports as public comments on this proposal ends today. China is also prepared to retaliate against US action. Markets are cautious ahead of US employment report and trade tariff announcements.
Data Highlights: US weekly jobless claims declined to 203k, ISM(non mfrg) expanded to 58.5, factory orders declined -0.8% m/m and ADP employment report showed that pvt sector added 163k jobs last month.
-German factory orders declined -0.9% m/m.
Friday’s calendar: – US Non farm payrolls
-EU GDP and German industrial production.
| USD/INR | 72.11 | 71.64 | |
| EUR/USD | 1.1620 | 1.1658 | 1.1606 |
| GBP/USD | 1.2925 | 1.2961 | 1.2896 |
| USD/JPY | 110.58 | 111.45 | 110.46 |
Daily Support/Resistance table
| CurrencyPairs | Pivot | R1 | R2 | R3 | S1 | S2 | S3 |
| EURO/USD | 1.1628 | 1.1650 | 1.1680 | 1.1702 | 1.1598 | 1.1576 | 1.1546 |
| GBP/USD | 1.2927 | 1.2958 | 1.2992 | 1.3023 | 1.2893 | 1.2862 | 1.2828 |
| USD/JPY | 110.80
|
111.14 | 111.79 | 112.13
|
110.15 | 109.81 | 109.16
|
| USD/INR | 71.91 | 72.18 | 72.38 | 71.71 | 71.44 |
MAJOR SUPPORTS/RESISTANCES AND TREND TABLE
| Curency Pair | Supports | Resistances | Trend | Remarks |
| EURO/USD | 1.1510/1.13 | 1.1730/1.1960 | SIDE | DN<1.15 |
| GBP/USD | 1.2660 | 1.3050/1.3250 | SIDE | DN<1.28 |
| USD/JPY | 109.70 | 113.10 | UP | DN<109.70 |
| USD/INR | 70.30/69.50 | 72.60 | UP | SIDE<70.30 |
| USD/CHF | 0.9440 | 0.9850 | DN | UP >0.9850 |
Technicals: Spot closed above 100 and 200 day major moving averages. 20 day moving is at 70.18. 50 day moving average is at 69.28. 200 day moving average is at 66.22. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying bottom at 68.30 . Important support zone is at 71.20 and later at 70.30. Important resistance is at 72.60. Spot closed above its average level of the day.
Intra day supports and resistances for Sep contract are:
PP: 72.08,S1:71.87, S2:71.60, R1:72.35, R2:72.56.
Hedging strategy for USD/INR: Hedging decisions be taken according to comfort and accounting rates.
CROSS CURRENCY TECHNICALS:
EURO/USD: The pair is below 100 and 200 day major moving averages. Next Major resistance is at 1.1730 and later at 1.1960. Major support is at 1.13. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying an important bottom at 1.13. Weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.2560.
GBP/USD: Trend is bearish in daily chart. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.2662 and weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.4375. The pair is trading below all major moving averages. Important resistance is at 1.3050 and later at 1.3250. Important support is at 1.2660.
USD/YEN: The pair is above major moving averages. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 109.70. Next important support is at 109.70. Important resistance is 113.
