• By Goodwill
  • November 29, 2023


Major developments:

USD is now at 83.29. USDINR opened at 83.31. Fwd premia – 1 year fwd premia is at 1.55% p.a
-Indian GDP is to be released on Nov 30 th. Q2 GDP is expected to have climbed by 6.8%.
-S&P raised Indian FY 24 GDP growth to 6.4% from 6%.
-Rupee gained from 83.40 to 83.29. 
-US PCE, ISM and spending data will dominate the narrative regarding future rate path.
-OPEC is meeting this week after last week meeting was deferred. Saudi Arabia may insist on extending voluntary supply cut to be extended.
-EU inflation data is another important release.
USDINR outlook: RBI has been selling USD at higher levels, but accepting modest decline. On Oct end USDINR was at 83.26. If Rupee closes below 83.40, it confirms the view that RBI is tolerant to Rupee decline aligned with fwd curve plus few ps. Dollar buying demand is evident as premia is insignificant for near term. FII’S have been net buyers in both Equity and debt segments in Nov. Rupee can gain modestly if FII inflows surface due to MSCI rebalancing. RBI could keep Rupee in the 83.25-83.45 range for some more weeks.
RBI rates
Trade Date  1 USD 1 GBP 1 EUR 100 YEN
28-Nov-23 83.39 105.3 91.31 56.24
-USDINR is at 83.29.Prior day’s close was 83.33.
-Indian Equity indices climb.
-Indian 10 year G-SEC yield is at 7.24%.
-USDINR 1 yr fwd premia is at 1.55%.
USDINR @ 83.29, EUR/USD@ 1.1001, GBP/USD @ 1.2709, USD/JPY @ 147.19, EUR/INR @ 91.63, GBP/INR @ 105.86, JPY/INR @ 56.59 Gold@2043, Brent Crude @ 81.45, Nifty @ 20008(+120), 10 Year G-SEC @ 7.24%.
USDINR payables can be hedged on dips to 83.25 . Eur receivables can be hedged now GBPINR receivables can be hedged now.
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