20/08/2018
USDINR opened gap up at 70.18 on Thursday and the pair traded in the 70.13-70.39 range. Spot USDINR closed at 70.15, gain of 25 ps ps for USD as against prior close of 69.90.RBI reference rate was fixed at 69.77. Rupee has declined 10% from its high levels of 63.25 in this calendar year. Equity markets remained unfazed by Rupee fall. Aug USD/INR closed at 70.26, gain of 26 ps for USD as compared to prior day’s close of 70. Aug Euro/INR closed at 79.98, GBP/INR at 89.32 and Yen/INR at 63.40.
FII’S have bought Rs 1504 Cr of Indian Equities in Aug till date . FII’S have bought Rs 4460 Cr of Indian debt securities in Aug till date . On a cumulative basis, FII’S have bought Rupees 3534 Cr of Indian Equities till date for this calendar year and have sold Rupees 36679 Cr of Indian debt in this calendar year till date.
Benchmark Nifty climbed 0.75% on Friday. DOW climbed 110 points (0.43%) on Friday. Nikkei climbed 0.35% and Hang seng climbed 0.42% on Friday.
Euro closed the week at 1.1439, Pound at 1.2751,Yen at 110.51.
Commodities: Gold is now at USD 1191 and WT1Crude at USD 65.91.
Interest rates: USD 10 Yr yield is at 2.86% and 3 m libor closed at 2.36%. Indian 10 yr benchmark yield closed at 7.86%.
Economic news: Global markets recovered and USD’S strength was checked. However, fall in Chinese markets and fear of break down of US-China trade talks will remain as major negatives for the present. FOMC minutes will be the focus event of this week.
Data Highlights : – US building permits was in line with consensus at 1.31mn, housing starts dipped to 1.17mn, weekly jobless claims was reported at 212k and Phily fed mfrg index dipped to 11.9.
-EU CPI climbed 2.1% y/y.
-UK retail sales climbed 0.7% m/m.
Monday’s calendar: – No major data release.
| USD/INR | 70.39 | 70.13 | |
| EUR/USD | 1.1439 | 1.1445 | 1.1366 |
| GBP/USD | 1.2751 | 1.2753 | 1.2698 |
| USD/JPY | 110.51 | 111.43 | 110.44 |
Daily Support/Resistance table
| CurrencyPairs | Pivot | R1 | R2 | R3 | S1 | S2 | S3 |
| EURO/USD | 1.1416 | 1.1467 | 1.1496 | 1.1387 | 1.1336 | ||
| GBP/USD | 1.2734 | 1.2770 | 1.2789 | 1.2715 | 1.2679 | ||
| USD/JPY | 110.79
|
111.14 | 111.78 |
|
110.15 | 109.80 |
|
| USD/INR | 70.22 | 70.31 | 70.48 | 70.05 | 69.96 |
MAJOR SUPPORTS/RESISTANCES AND TREND TABLE
| Curency Pair | Supports | Resistances | Trend | Remarks |
| EURO/USD | 1.13/1.1120 | 1.1510/1.1620 | DN | SIDE>1.1620 |
| GBP/USD | 1.26 | 1.2957/1.3050 | DN | SIDE>1.3050 |
| USD/JPY | 110.20/109.70 | 113.10 | UP | DN<109.70 |
| USD/INR | 69.70/69.10 | 70.40/70.75 | UP | SIDE<69.10 |
| USD/CHF | 0.9850/0.9785 | 1.0060 | UP | DN <0.9785 |
Technicals: Spot closed above 100 and 200 day major moving averages. 20 day moving is at 68.92. 50 day moving average is at 68.53. 200 day moving average is at 65.90. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying bottom at 68.30 . Important support zone is at 69.70 and later at 69.10. Important resistance is at 70.40. Spot closed below its average level of the day.
Intra day supports and resistances for Aug contract are:
PP: 70.30,S1:70.11, S2:69.96, R1:70.45, R2:70.64.
Hedging strategy for USD/INR: Hedging decisions be taken according to comfort and accounting rates.
CROSS CURRENCY TECHNICALS:
EURO/USD: The pair is below 100 and 200 day major moving averages. Next Major resistance is at 1.1510 and later at 1.1620. Major support is at 1.13. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying an important top at 1.1850. Weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.2560.
GBP/USD: Trend is bearish in daily chart. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.3215 and weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.4375. The pair is trading below all major moving averages. Important resistance is at 1.2957 and later at 1.3050. Important support is at 1.26.
USD/YEN: The pair is above major moving averages. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 113. Next important support is at 110.20 and later at 109.20. Important resistance is 113.
