04/06/2018
USDINR opened at 67.42 on Friday and the pair traded in the 67.01-67.43 range. Spot USDINR closed at 67.05, loss of 35 ps for USD as against prior close of 67.40.RBI reference rate was fixed at 67.18. Rupee has gained closer to 2% since last week Thursday when it hit 67.42. Rupee gain is attributed to decline in Crude price and better than expected GDP data. June USD/INR closed at 67.25, loss of 32 ps for USD as compared to prior day’s close of 67.57. June Euro/INR closed at 78.81, GBP/INR at 89.70 and Yen/INR at 61.61.
FII’S sold Rs 8081 Cr of Indian Equities in May till date . FII’S also sold 17400 Cr of Indian debt securities in May . On a cumulative basis, FII’S have bought Rupees 334 Cr of Indian Equities till date for this calendar year and have sold Rupees 31172 Cr of Indian debt in this calendar year till date.
Benchmark Nifty declined 0.37% on Friday. DOW climbed 219 points (0.90%) on Friday.Nikkei declined 0.14% and Hang seng climbed 0.08% on Friday.
Euro closed the week at 1.1660, Pound at 1.3348,Yen at 109.53.
Commodities: Gold is now at USD 1293 and WT1Crude at USD 65.72.
Interest rates: USD 10 Yr yield is at 2.89% and 3 m libor closed at 2.36%. Indian 10 yr benchmark yield closed at 7.85%.
Economic news: US added 223k jobs last month and unemployment rate dipped further to 3.8%. This is the lowest in 13 years. Average hourly earnings rose 0.3% mom, beat expectation of 0.2% mom. This data is likely to strengthen Fed’s resolve to hike rates in June.
Data Highlights: -US ISM(mfrg) was better than expected at 58.7 and construction spending climbed 1.8% m/m. Prices paid component in ISM climbed to 79.5 vs consenus of 78.1.
-EU PMI(mfrg) was finalized at 55.2.
-UK PMI(mfrg) climbed to 54.4.
Monday’s calendar: – US factory orders
-EU sentix investor confidence and PPI
| USD/INR | 67.58 | 67.31 | |
| EUR/USD | 1.1660 | 1.1718 | 1.1617 |
| GBP/USD | 1.3348 | 1.3363 | 1.3252 |
| USD/JPY | 109.53 | 109.75 | 108.72 |
Daily Support/Resistance table
| CurrencyPairs | Pivot | R1 | R2 | R3 | S1 | S2 | S3 |
| EURO/USD | 1.1665 | 1.1713 | 1.1766 | 1.1612 | 1.1564 | ||
| GBP/USD | 1.3321 | 1.3390 | 1.3432 | 1.3279 | 1.3210 | ||
| USD/JPY | 109.33
|
109.94 | 110.36 |
|
108.91 | 108.30 |
|
| USD/INR | 67.16 | 67.32 | 67.59 | 66.88 | 66.73 |
MAJOR SUPPORTS/RESISTANCES AND TREND TABLE
| Curency Pair | Supports | Resistances | Trend | Remarks |
| EURO/USD | 1.1508 | 1.1820/1.1960 | DN | SIDE>1.1960 |
| GBP/USD | 1.3050 | 1.3450/1.3550 | DN | SIDE>1.3450 |
| USD/JPY | 108.10/107.78 | 111.40/113.75 | SIDE | DN<108.10 |
| USD/INR | 66.50 | 67.30/67.98 | SIDE | UP>67.98 |
| USD/CHF | 0.9650 | 1.0060 | UP | DN <0.9575 |
Technicals: Spot closed above 100 and 200 day major moving averages. 20 day moving is at 67.65. 50 day moving average is at 66.43. 200 day moving average is at 64.66. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying top at 68.42 . Important support zone is at 66.50. Important resistance is at 67.30 and later at 67.98. Spot closed below its average level of the day.
Intra day supports and resistances for June contract are:
PP: 67.36,S1:67.09, S2:66.92, R1:67.53, R2:67.80.
Hedging strategy for USD/INR: Hedging decisions be taken according to comfort and accounting rates.
CROSS CURRENCY TECHNICALS:
EURO/USD: The pair is below all major moving averages. Next Major resistance is at 1.1820 and later at 1.1960. Major support is at 1.1508. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying an important bottom at 1.1508. Weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.2560.
GBP/USD: Trend is bearish in daily chart. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.3205 and weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.4375. The pair is trading below all major moving averages. Important resistance is at 1.3450 and later at 1.3550. Important support is at 1.3205 and later at 1.3050.
USD/YEN: The pair is below 200 day major moving average, but above 20 and 100 day moving averages. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 111.40. Important support is at 108.10. Important resistance is 111.40 and later at 113.75.
