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FX – MORNING UPDATE :

FX – MORNING UPDATE :
  • By Goodwill
  • 121 Comments
  • October 16, 2023

FX – MORNING UPDATE :

USDINR opened at 83.23 on Friday and the pair traded in the 83.21-83.30 range. Spot USDINR closed at 83.28, gain of 5 ps for USD as against prior close of 83.23.

RBI reference rate was fixed at 83.25 on 13/10. Oct USD/INR closed at 83.31, gain of 2 ps for USD as compared to prior day’s close of 83.29. Oct Euro/INR closed at 87.74, GBP/INR at 101.50 and Yen/INR at 55.88. 1 year USDINR fwd premia was trading at around 1.72% p.a.  FX reserves declined by USD 3 bn and stood at USD 584 bn as on Oct 6 th.

PAIRS

RBI REF RATE (13/10)

USDINR

83.25

EURINR

87.76

GBPINR

101.52

JPYINR

55.60

In Oct, FPI’S have sold Rs 6916 Cr of Equities and bought Rs 3146 Cr of debt . In 2022-23 fiscal year, FII’S have net sold Rs 27593 Cr of Equities and have net bought Rs 838 Cr of debt.

Benchmark Nifty declined 43 points (0.22%) on Friday. US S&P declined 21 points (0.50%) . Nikkei declined 0.61% and Hang Seng declined 2.73%.

Euro is now at 1.0510, Pound at 1.2144, Yen at 149.57.

Commodities: Gold is now at USD 1932 and WT1Crude at USD 87/Brent at USD 91.

Interest rates: USD 10 Yr yield is at 4.61% and 3 m libor closed at 5.65%. Indian 10 yr benchmark yield closed at 7.32%.

Economic news: Safe haven assets like Gold soared on Middle East tension. Oil climbed past USD 90. Equity markets steered clear of any big decline despite deep worries. Higher inflation is persistent and looks threatened again by Oil prices. Fed rate expectations and how long will higher rates be maintained seems to weigh down on Crosses and Equities. Though economic data is pivotal, it may be temporarily overshadowed by expansion of conflict in Middle East.

Fed officials have been increasingly vocal about the impact of soaring treasury yields, suggesting that their ascent could reduce the need for further monetary tightening.

Data highlights: – EU industrial production climbed 0.6% m/m.

Monday’s calendar : No major data release.

USD/INR

 

  

 83.30

83.22

EUR/USD

1.0510

  

1.0558

1.0495

GBP/USD

1.2144

  

1.2226

1.2122

USD/JPY

149.57

  

149.83

149.45

Daily Support/Resistance table

Currency Pairs

Pivot

R1

R2

R3

S1

S2

S3

EURO/USD

1.0521

1.0547

1.0584

 

1.0484

1.0458

 

GBP/USD

1.2164

1.2206

1.2268

 

1.2102

1.2060

 

USD/JPY

149.61

149.78

149.99

 

149.39

149.13

 

USD/INR

83.26

83.31

83.34

 

83.22

83.18

 

MAJOR SUPPORTS/RESISTANCES AND TREND TABLE

Currency Pair

Supports

Resistances

Trend

Remarks

EURO/USD

1.0450/1.0250

1.0630/1.0740

DN

SIDE>1.0740

GBP/USD

1.2040/1.18

1.2330/1.2440/1.25

SIDE

DN<1.2110

USD/JPY

147.50/146.50

150

UP

SIDE<146.50

USD/INR

83.10/82.80

83.35/83.47

UP

SIDE<82.78

USD/CHF

0.9025/0.89

0.9250/0.9450

UP

SIDE<0.89

Technicals: Spot closed above 50 and 200 day moving averages.20 day moving average is at 83.18. 50 day moving average is at 82.99.200 day moving average is at 82.43. Daily MACD is in sell zone. Important support is at 83.10/82.80 and important resistance is at 83.35. Spot closed above the average level of the day.

Intraday supports and resistances for Oct contract are:

PP: 83.30, S1:83.27, S2:83.23, R1:83.34, R2:83.37.             

Hedging strategy: Hedging decisions be taken according to comfort and accounting rates.

However on directional basis, suggest the following:

USD exports be hedged at 83.30/83.50. Imports be hedged at 83.10 for 3 months.

CROSS CURRENCY TECHNICALS:

EURO/USD: The pair is below major moving averages. Major resistance is at 1.0740/1.0945. Next major support is at 1.0450/1.0250. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying an important bottom at 1.0450. Weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.1275.

GBP/USD: The pair is below 50 and 200 day averages. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.2035 and weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.3145. Important support is at 1.2035/1.18. Important resistance is at 1.2330/1.2440.

USD/YEN: The pair is above 50 and 200 day major averages. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 150.20. Important resistance is at 150.20 and support is at 147.50/146.50.

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