FX MORNING UPDATE                    


USDINR opened gap down at 68.37 on Friday and the pair traded in the 68.31-68.53 range. Spot USDINR closed at 68.53, loss of 4 ps for USD as against prior close of 68.57.RBI reference rate was fixed at 68.41.July USD/INR closed at 68.64, loss of 3 ps for USD as compared to prior day’s close of 68.67. July Euro/INR closed at 79.86, GBP/INR at 90.11 and Yen/INR at 61.02.

FII’S have sold Rs 1377 Cr of Indian Equities in July till date . FII’S have sold Rs 1951 Cr of Indian debt securities in June till date . On a cumulative basis, FII’S have bought Rupees 160 Cr of Indian Equities till date for this calendar year and have sold  Rupees 43269 Cr of Indian debt in this calendar year till date.

Benchmark Nifty closed flat on Friday. DOW climbed 94 points (0.38%) on Friday.Nikkei climbed 1.85%  and Hang seng climbed 0.16% on Friday.

Euro closed the week at 1.1667, Pound at 1.3180,Yen at 112.60.

Commodities: Gold is now at USD 1241 and WT1Crude at USD 70.56.

Interest rates: USD 10 Yr yield is at 2.83% and 3 m libor closed at 2.36%. Indian 10 yr benchmark yield closed at 7.87%.        

Economic news: Indian trade deficit widened to 5 year highs of 16.6 bn in June from May data of USD 14.62 bn. Exports rose 17.57% in June to USD 27.7 bn while imports climbed 21.3% to USD 44.3 bn. Oil imports climbed 56.61% to USD 12.73 bn. Gold imports declined 2.8% to USD 2.39 bn.

Data Highlights : – No major data

Monday’s calendar: -US retail sales and NY mfrg index


USD/INR   68.53 68.31
EUR/USD 1.1686 1.1687 1.1613
GBP/USD 1.3236 1.3239 1.3103
USD/JPY 112.38 112.80 112.18

Daily Support/Resistance table

CurrencyPairs Pivot R1 R2 R3 S1 S2 S3
EURO/USD 1.1662 1.1711  1.1736    1.1637 1.1588  
GBP/USD 1.3192 1.3282  1.3328    1.3145 1.3056  
USD/JPY 112.45


112.72  113.07  


 112.10 111.83  


USD/INR 68.45 68.60 68.68   68.37 68.22  


Curency Pair Supports Resistances Trend Remarks
EURO/USD 1.1508 1.1853/1.1960 DN SIDE>1.1853
GBP/USD 1.3050 1.3365/1.3475/1.3650 DN SIDE>1.3365
USD/JPY 111.40/110.86 113.70 UP DN<110.85
USD/INR 68.35/67.70 69.10 UP SIDE<68.35
USD/CHF 0.9785/0.9650 1.0060 UP  DN <0.9785

Technicals: Spot closed above 100 and 200 day major moving averages. 20 day moving is at 68.52. 50 day moving average is at 67.93. 200 day moving average is at 65.55. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying top at 69.09 . Important support zone is at 68.30 and later at 67.70. Important resistance is at 69.10. Spot closed above its average level of the day.                                                                                                                                               

Intra day supports and resistances for July contract are:

PP: 68.56,S1:68.47, S2:68.31, R1:68.72, R2:68.81.                                                               

Hedging strategy for USD/INR: Hedging decisions be taken according to comfort and accounting rates.


EURO/USD: The pair is below all major moving averages. Next Major resistance is at 1.1850 and later at 1.1960. Major support is at 1.1508. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying an important bottom at 1.1508. Weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.2560.

GBP/USD: Trend is bearish in daily chart. Daily MACD  is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.3050 and weekly MACD is  in sell zone, implying important top at 1.4375. The pair is trading below all major moving averages. Important resistance is at 1.3365 and later at 1.3475/1.3650. Important support is at 1.3050.           

USD/YEN: The pair is above major moving averages. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 109.35. Next important support is at 111.40/110.85. Important resistance is  113.70.       

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