• By Goodwill
  • 60 Comments
  • December 13, 2023

FX – MORNING UPDATE :

USDINR opened at 83.36 y’day and the pair traded in the 83.35-83.40 range. Spot USDINR closed at 83.37, gain of 1 ps for USD as against prior close of 83.36.

RBI reference rate was fixed at 83.38 on 12/12Dec USD/INR closed at 83.40 y’day, loss of 1 ps for USD as compared to prior day’s close of 83.41. Dec Euro/INR closed at 90.13, GBP/INR at 104.85 and Yen/INR at 57.60. 1 year USDINR fwd premia was trading at around 1.62% p.a.  FX reserves stood at USD 604 bn as on Dec 1 st.  FX reserves climbed USD 6 bn.

PAIRS

RBI REF RATE (12/12)

USDINR

83.38

EURINR

89.80

GBPINR

104.86

JPYINR

57.34

In Dec, FPI’S have bought Rs 16761 Cr of Equities and bought Rs 5596 Cr of debt . In 2022-23 fiscal year, FII’S have net sold Rs 27593 Cr of Equities and have net bought Rs 838 Cr of debt.

Benchmark Nifty declined 90 points (0.43%) y’day. US S&P climbed 21 points (0.46%) y’day. Nikkei climbed 0.10% and Hang Seng climbed 1.33% y’day.

Euro is now at 1.0787, Pound at 1.2553, Yen at 145.61.

Commodities: Gold is now at USD 1979 and WT1Crude at USD 68/Brent at USD 73.

Interest rates: USD 10 Yr yield is at 4.19% and 3 m libor closed at 5.64%. Indian 10 yr benchmark yield closed at 7.28%.

Economic news: Indian CPI climbed 5.55% in Nov as against 4.87% in Oct. Food inflation rose to 8.7%. Headline inflation is within RBI band of 2 to 6%., IIP climbed 11.7%. Mfrg grew by 10.4%. Mining grew by 13.1% and power output rose 20.4%.

RBI has projected FY 24 inflation to average 5.4%.

US CPI rose 0.1% mom while CPI core ex food and energy) rose 0.3% mom. Energy index down -2.3% mom, food index rose 0.2% mom. For the 12 months period, CPI slowed from 3.2% yoy to 3.1% yoy. Core CPI was unchanged at 4.0% yoy.

US Fed meeting, ECB and BOE meetings will dominate Global market developments.

Data highlights: – US CPI climbed 0.1% m/m and Core CPI climbed 0.3% m/m.

-EU and German Zew survey climbed to 23 and 12.8 respectively.

-UK claimant count change declined to 16k and unemployment rate was reported at 4.2%.

Wednesday’s calendar : – US PPI

-EU Industrial production

-UK industrial and manufacturing production.

USD/INR

 

 

 83.40

83.35

EUR/USD

1.0787

 

1.0829

1.0759

GBP/USD

1.2553

 

1.2616

1.2513

USD/JPY

145.61

 

146.59

144.88

 Daily Support/Resistance table

Currency Pairs

Pivot

R1

R2

R3

S1

S2

S3

EURO/USD

1.0793

1.0827

1.0864

1.0898

1.0757

1.0722

1.0686

GBP/USD

1.2563

1.2613

1.2666

1.2716

1.2510

1.2460

1.2407

USD/JPY

145.45

146.16

146.91

147.63

144.70

143.99

143.24

USD/INR

83.37

83.40

83.43

 

83.34

83.31

 

MAJOR SUPPORTS/RESISTANCES AND TREND TABLE

Currency Pair

Supports

Resistances

Trend

Remarks

EURO/USD

1.0735/1.0665

1.0860/1.0960/1.1018

SIDE

UP>1.0860

GBP/USD

1.2450/1.2325

1.2745

SIDE

DN<1.2325

USD/JPY

141.50

147.15/149.70

DN

UP>149.70

USD/INR

83.03/82.80

83.47

UP

SIDE<83.02

USD/CHF

0.8650

0.8950

DN

UP>0.8950

Technicals: Spot closed above 50 day average and 200 day moving averages.20 day moving average is at 83.32. 50 day moving average is at 83.27.200 day moving average is at 82.62. Daily MACD is in buy zone. Important support is at 83.03/82.80 and important resistance is at 83.48. Spot closed at the average level of the day.

Intraday supports and resistances for Dec contract are:

PP: 83.40, S1:83.37, S2:83.35, R1:83.43, R2:83.45.             

Hedging strategy: Hedging decisions be taken according to comfort and accounting rates.

However on directional basis, suggest the following:

USD exports be hedged at 83.45/83.50. Imports be hedged at 83.05 for 3 months.

CROSS CURRENCY TECHNICALS:

EURO/USD: The pair is above 50, but below 100 and 200 day major moving averages. Major resistance is at 1.0860/1.0960/1.1018. Next major support is at 1.0735/1.0665. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying an important top at 1.1018. Weekly MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.0450.

GBP/USD: The pair is above all major moving averages. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.2735 and weekly MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.2035. Important support is at 1.2440/1.2325. Important resistance is at 1.2745.

USD/YEN: The pair is below 50,100 day major averages, but above 200 day average. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 151.75. Important resistance is at 147.15/149.70 and support is at 141.50.

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