FX – MORNING UPDATE :
USDINR opened gap up at 82.31 y’day and the pair traded in the 82.24-82.34 range. Spot USDINR closed at 82.25, unchanged for USD as against prior close of 82.25. RBI reference rate was fixed at 82.28 on 01/08. Aug USD/INR closed at 82.32, unchanged for USD as compared to prior day’s close of 82.32. Aug Euro/INR closed at 90.48, GBP/INR at 105.35 and Yen/INR at 57.91. 1 year USDINR fwd premia was trading at around 1.62% p.a. FX stood at USD 609 bn as on July 14 th.
| PAIRS | RBI REF RATE (01/08) |
| USDINR | 82.28 |
| EURINR | 90.46 |
| GBPINR | 105.57 |
| JPYINR | 57.69 |
In July ,FPI’S have bought Rs 33515 Cr of Equities and bought Rs 2469 Cr of debt . In 2022-23 fiscal year, FII’S have net sold Rs 27593 Cr of Equities and have net bought Rs 838 Cr of debt. Benchmark Nifty declined 20 points (0.10%) y’day. US S&P declined 12 points (0.27%) . Nikkei climbed 0.79% and Hang seng declined 0.28% y’day.. Euro is now at 1.0983, Pound at 1.2771, Yen at 143.28. Commodities: Gold is now at USD 1985 and WT1Crude at USD 82.25/Brent at USD 85.80. Interest rates: USD 10 Yr yield is at 4.03% and 3 m libor closed at 5.63%. Indian 10 yr benchmark yield closed at 7.17%. Economic news: Indian Core sector output climbed 8.2% with steel sector registering 21.9% growth. PMI(mfrg) dipped marginally to 57.7 in June. Fitch downgraded US Credit rating from AAA to AA+. EU and UK PMI(mfrg) sunk further with EU PMI data hitting 38 months low.US July ISM data remained in contraction mode for 9 th consecutive month. The past relationship between the Manufacturing PMI and the overall economy indicates that the July reading (46.4 percent) corresponds to a change of minus-0.8 percent in real gross domestic product (GDP) on an annualized basis.” U.S. crude inventories declined by 15.4 million barrels in the week to July 28.The draw was the largest seen in data stretching back to 1982, and indicated that crude supplies in the world’s largest economy were rapidly tightening amid slowing production and falling global supplies. Crude prices rose to cross USD 85. Rupee and Asian FX Currencies could come under pressure due to rise in Crude prices. BOE meeting, US employment and ISM data are key events for the week. Data highlights: US ISM(mfrg) dipped marginally to 46.4 and construction spending climbed 0.5% m/m. -EU PMI(mfrg-final) was reported at 42.7 and unemployment rate dipped to 6.4%. -UK PMI(mfrg-final) climbed marginally to 45.3. Wednesday’s calendar : – US ADP employment report.
| USD/INR | 82.34 | 82.24 | ||
| EUR/USD |
1.0983 |
1.1004 | 1.0951 | |
| GBP/USD |
1.2771 |
1.2843 | 1.2740 | |
| USD/JPY |
143.28 |
143.56 | 142.21 |
Daily Support/Resistance table
| Currency Pairs | Pivot | R1 | R2 | R3 | S1 | S2 | S3 |
| EURO/USD | 1.0979 | 1.1007 | 1.1031 | 1.1059 | 1.0954 | 1.0927 | 1.0902 |
| GBP/USD | 1.2787 | 1.2834 | 1.2889 | 1.2936 | 1.2731 | 1.2685 | 1.2629 |
| USD/JPY | 143.03 | 143.85 | 144.38 | 145.21 | 142.50 | 141.68 | 141.15 |
| USD/INR | 82.28 | 82.32 | 82.38 | 82.22 | 82.18 |
MAJOR SUPPORTS/RESISTANCES AND TREND TABLE
| Currency Pair | Supports | Resistances | Trend | Remarks |
| EURO/USD | 1.0940 | 1.1095/1.1140 | SIDE | UP>1.1150 |
| GBP/USD | 1.2760/1.2680 | 1.30/1.3140 | SIDE | UP>1.30 |
| USD/JPY | 138/137.35/135.50 | 142/145 | UP | DN<137.35 |
| USD/INR | 81.95/81.67 | 82.35/82.48/82.65 | SIDE | DN<82.05 |
| USD/CHF | 0.8565/0.8440 | 0.8820 | DN | SIDE>0.8820 |
Technicals: Spot closed below 50 but above 200 day moving averages.20 day moving average is at 82.17. 50 day moving average is at 82.26.200 day moving average is at 82.21. Daily MACD is in sell zone. Important support is at 81.67 and important resistance is at 82.34. Spot closed below the average level of the day. Intraday supports and resistances for Aug contract are: PP: 82.34, S1:82.28, S2:82.24, R1:82.38, R2:82.44. Hedging strategy: Hedging decisions be taken according to comfort and accounting rates. However on directional basis, suggest the following: USD exports be hedged at 82.70. CROSS CURRENCY TECHNICALS: EURO/USD: The pair is above major moving averages. Major resistance is at 1.1140/1.1275. Next major support is at 1.0945. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying an important top at 1.1275. Weekly MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.0635. GBP/USD: The pair is above 50,100 and 200 day moving averages . Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.3145 and weekly MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.1803. Important supports are at 1.2680/1.2590. Important resistance is at 1.30/1.3145. USD/YEN: The pair is above 50 and 200 day major averages. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 137.35. Important resistance is at 142/145 and support is at 137.50.
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