16/04/2018
USDINR opened at 65.30 on Friday and the pair traded in the 65.18-65.30 range. USDINR closed at 65.20, loss of 5 ps for USD as against prior close of 65.25.RBI reference rate was fixed at 65.22. April USD/INR closed at 65.28, loss of 6 ps for USD as compared to prior day’s close of 65.34. April Euro/INR closed at 80.45, GBP/INR at 93.06 and Yen/INR at 60.67.
FII’S have sold Rs 1084 Cr of Indian Equities in April till date . FII’S have bought Rupees 3935 Cr of Indian debt securities in April . On a cumulative basis, FII’S have bought Rupees 13798 Cr of Indian Equities till date for this calendar year and have bought Rupees 2034 Cr of Indian debt in this calendar year till date.
Benchmark Nifty climbed 0.21% on Friday. DOW declined 122 points (0.50%) on Friday.Nikkei climbed 0.55% and Hang seng declined 0.07% on Friday.
Euro closed the week at 1.2330, Pound at 1.4239,Yen at 107.41.
Commodities: Gold is now at USD 1347 and WT1Crude at USD 67.33.
Interest rates: USD 10 Yr yield is at 2.83% and 3 m libor closed at 2.29%. Indian 10 yr benchmark yield closed at 7.43%.
Economic news: Indian exports dipped 0.66% to USD 29.1 bn in March and imports climbed 7.15% to USD 42.8 bn. Crude Oil imports rose 13.92% y/y to USD 11.1 bn in March. Gold imporst declined to USD 2.5 bn. Trade deficit stood at USD 13.7 bn. Exports climbed 9.78% for 2017-18 fiscal to hit USD 302.85 bn. Imports climbed 19..59% in 2017-18 to USD 459.67 bn. Trade deficit for the full year stood at USD 156.82 bn.
US launched strikes against Syrian targets and Russia said that it will have consequences. Though EURO bulls were disappointed by ECB minutes, Dollar is getting no support from Fed expectations with dollar index continuing to struggle in established range.
Data Highlights: No major data release.
Monday’s calendar: – US retail sales, NY mfrg index and TIC purchases.
-UK leading index.
| USD/INR | 65.30 | 65.18 | |
| EUR/USD | 1.2330 | 1.2348 | 1.2307 |
| GBP/USD | 1.4239 | 1.4298 | 1.4220 |
| USD/JPY | 107.41 | 107.78 | 107.19 |
Daily Support/Resistance table
| CurrencyPairs | Pivot | R1 | R2 | R3 | S1 | S2 | S3 |
| EURO/USD | 1.2328 | 1.2349 | 1.2369 | 1.2308 | 1.2287 | ||
| GBP/USD | 1.4252 | 1.4284 | 1.4330 | 1.4206 | 1.4174 | ||
| USD/JPY | 107.46
|
107.73 | 108.05 |
|
107.14 | 106.87 |
|
| USD/INR | 65.22 | 65.27 | 65.34 | 65.14 | 65.10 |
MAJOR SUPPORTS/RESISTANCES AND TREND TABLE
| Curency Pair | Supports | Resistances | Trend | Remarks |
| EURO/USD | 1.2210/1.2150/1.2090 | 1.2475/1.2555 | SIDE | SIDE<1.2150 |
| GBP/USD | 1.3965/1.3710 | 1.4345 | UP | DN<1.3710 |
| USD/JPY | 104.50 | 108 | DN | SIDE>108 |
| USD/INR | 64.85 | 65.60 | UP | SIDE<64.85 |
| USD/CHF | 0.9535/0.9435 | 0.9870 | UP | DN <0.9430 |
Technicals: Spot closed above 100 and 200 day major moving averages. 20 day moving is at 65.06. 50 day moving average is at 64.72. 200 day moving average is at 64.45. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying top at 65.44 . Important support zone is at 64.85. Important resistance is at 65.60. Spot closed below its average level of the day.
Intra day supports and resistances for April contract are:
PP: 65.32,S1:65.22, S2:65.16, R1:65.38, R2:65.48
Hedging strategy for USD/INR: Hedging decisions be taken according to comfort and accounting rates.
CROSS CURRENCY TECHNICALS:
EURO/USD: The pair is above 100 and 200 day major moving averages, but below 20 and 50 day moving averages. Next Major resistance is at 1.2475 and later at 1.2555. Major support is at 1.2150. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying an important bottom at 1.2215. Weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.2560.
GBP/USD: Trend is bullish in daily chart. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.3965 and weekly MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.3715. The pair is trading above 200 day major moving average. Important resistance is at 1.4345. Important support is at 1.3710.
USD/YEN: The pair is below major moving averages. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 104.56. Important support is at 104.56. Important resistance is at 108 and later at 110.40.
