FX – MORNING UPDATE :
USDINR opened at 83.83 on Friday and the pair traded in the 83.83-83.87 range. Spot USDINR closed at 83.84, loss of 4 ps for USD as against prior close of 83.88.
RBI reference rate was fixed at 83.87 on 30/08. Sept USD/INR closed at 83.91, loss of 3 ps for USD as compared to prior day’s close of 83.94. Sep Euro/INR closed at 93.06, GBP/INR at 110.45 and Yen/INR at 58.16. 1 year USDINR fwd premia was trading at around 2.10% p.a. FX reserves stood at USD 681 bn, as on Aug 23 rd. Reserves climbed US D 7 bn w/w.
|
PAIRS |
RBI REF RATE (30/08) |
|
USDINR |
83.87 |
|
EURINR |
92.91 |
|
GBPINR |
110.49 |
|
JPYINR |
57.86 |
In Aug , FPI’S have bought Rs 11930 Cr of Equities and bought Rs 13897 Cr of debt . In FY 23-24, FII’S have net bought Rs 206279 Cr of Equities and have net bought Rs 123120 Cr of debt.
Benchmark Nifty climbed 84 points (0.33%) on Friday. US S&P climbed 56 points (1.01%) on Friday. Nikkei climbed 0.69% and Hang Seng climbed 1.14% on Friday .
Euro is now at 1.1047, Pound at 1.3126, Yen at 146.16.
Commodities: Gold is now at USD 2503 and WT1Crude at USD 73.50/Brent at USD 77.
Interest rates: USD 10 Yr yield is at 3.91% and 3 m libor closed at 5.32%. Indian 10 yr benchmark yield closed at 6.98%.
Economic news: Indian Q1 climbed 6.7% y/y as against 8.2% during the same period last year. Mfrg climbed 7%, construction sector climbed 10.5%, agri sector climbed 2%, mining and tertiary sector climbed 7.2%.
Private final consumption expenditure expanded at the fastest pace in seven quarters of 7.4 percent compared with 4 percent growth in the previous quarter and 5.5 percent in the first quarter of previous fiscal. Gross fixed capital formation (GFCF), which represents infrastructure investment, contributed 31.3 per cent to gross domestic product (GDP) in Q1FY25, as against 31.5 per cent in the preceding quarter. Government expenditure, measured by government final consumption expenditure (GFCE), contracted (-0.24 per cent) during the quarter. The share of GFCE in GDP fell to 10.2 per cent in Q1FY25 from 12.2 per cent in Q4FY24.
Core sector, comprising of eight industries climbed 6.1%.
US PCE price index rose 0.2% mom, while core PCE (excluding food and energy)rose 0.2% mom, both matched expectations. From the same month one year ago, PCE price index rose 2.5% yoy, unchanged from June’s reading, below expectation of 2.6% yoy Core PCE price index rose 2.6% yoy, unchanged from June’s reading, below expectation of 2.7% yoy.
USD rose despite softening Core PCE data. USD received support from climb in US 10 Year yield.
Focus will be on US employment data.
Data highlights: – US Personal income climbed 0.3% m/m, spending climbed 0.5% m/m, Core PCE climbed 0.2% m/m.
-EU CPI climbed 2.2% y/y.
Monday’s calendar : – EU PMI(mfrg) and German retail sales
-UK PMI(mfrg)
|
USD/INR |
|
83.87 |
83.83 |
|
|
EUR/USD |
1.1047 |
1.1096 |
1.1044 |
|
|
GBP/USD |
1.3126 |
1.3201 |
1.3118 |
|
|
USD/JPY |
146.16 |
146.26 |
144.66 |
Daily Support/Resistance table
|
Currency Pairs |
Pivot |
R1 |
R2 |
R3 |
S1 |
S2 |
S3 |
|
EURO/USD |
1.1062 |
1.1080 |
1.1114 |
|
1.1028 |
1.1010 |
|
|
USD/JPY |
145.69 |
146.72 |
147.29 |
|
145.12 |
144.09 |
|
|
GBP/USD |
1.3148 |
1.3178 |
1.3231 |
|
1.3095 |
1.3065 |
|
|
USD/INR |
83.84 |
83.86 |
83.88 |
|
83.81 |
83.80 |
|
MAJOR SUPPORTS/RESISTANCES AND TREND TABLE
|
Currency Pair |
Supports |
Resistances |
Trend |
Remarks |
|
EURO/USD |
1.10/1.0950 |
1.1210/1.1340 |
UP |
DN<1.0950 |
|
GBP/USD |
1.3045/1.2880 |
1.3270/1.3450 |
SIDE |
DN<1.2850 |
|
USD/JPY |
142 |
149/152 |
DN |
SIDE>149 |
|
USD/INR |
83.76/83.65 |
84.10/84.30 |
UP |
SIDE<83.76 |
|
USD/CHF |
0.84 |
0.86/0.8730 |
DN |
SIDE>0.8730 |
Technicals: Spot closed above 50 and 200 day moving averages.20 day moving average is at 83.91. 50 day moving average is at 83.71. 200 day moving average is at 83.35. Daily MACD is in sell zone. Important support is at 83.75/83.65 and important resistance is at 84.10/84.30. Spot closed at the average level of the day.
Intraday supports and resistances for Sep contract are:
PP: 83.91, S1:83.87, S2:83.84, R1:83.95, R2:83.98.
Hedging strategy: Hedging decisions be taken according to comfort and accounting rates.
However on directional basis, suggest the following:
USD exports be hedged above 84.10+.
CROSS CURRENCY TECHNICALS:
EURO/USD: The pair is above major moving averages. Major resistance is at 1.1205/1.1340. Next major support is at 1.10/1.0950. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying an important top at 1.1205. Weekly MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.06.
GBP/USD: The pair is above moving averages. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.2650 and weekly MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.23. Important support is at 1.3050/1.2850. Important resistance is at1.3270/1.3450.
USD/YEN: The pair is below major averages. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 141.65. Important resistance is at 149/152 and support is at 141.65.
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