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FX – MORNING UPDATE :

FX – MORNING UPDATE :
  • By Goodwill
  • 115 Comments
  • December 1, 2023

FX – MORNING UPDATE :

USDINR opened at 83.29 y’day and the pair traded in the 83.29-83.39 range. Spot USDINR closed at 83.38, gain of 9 ps for USD as against prior close of 83.29.

RBI reference rate was fixed at 83.35 on 30/11. Nov USD/INR closed at 83.42 y’day, gain of 6 ps for USD as compared to prior day’s close of 83.36. Nov Euro/INR closed at 91.10, GBP/INR at 105.39 and Yen/INR at 56.75. 1 year USDINR fwd premia was trading at around 1.55% p.a.  FX reserves stood at USD 595 bn as on Nov 17 th.  FX reserves climbed USD 5 bn.

PAIRS

RBI REF RATE (30/11)

USDINR

83.35

EURINR

91.48

GBPINR

105.86

JPYINR

56.68

In Nov, FPI’S have bought Rs 811 Cr of Equities and bought Rs 11599 Cr of debt . In 2022-23 fiscal year, FII’S have net sold Rs 27593 Cr of Equities and have net bought Rs 838 Cr of debt.

Benchmark Nifty climbed 36 points (0.18%) y’day. US S&P climbed 17 points (0.38%) y’day. Nikkei climbed 0.43% and Hang Seng climbed 0.18% y’day.

Euro is now at 1.0907, Pound at 1.2650, Yen at 147.72.

Commodities: Gold is now at USD 2042 and WT1Crude at USD 77.50/Brent at USD 82.

Interest rates: USD 10 Yr yield is at 4.25% and 3 m libor closed at 5.64%. Indian 10 yr benchmark yield closed at 7.26%.

Economic news: Indian GDP climbed 7.6% in Q2. Govt final consumption expenditure grew by 12.5% and Gross fixed Capital formation climbed 11.1% and led GDP growth on the input side. Mfrg climbed 13.9% in Q2, Construction climbed 13.3%, agriculture grew by 1.2%, Financial services climbed 6%. Mining grew by 10%. Trade, transport and Hotel sector climbed 11.3%. Private final consumption climbed only 3.1%. GDP for FY 24 has been retained at 6.5%,

Data highlights: – US Personal income grew 0.2% m/m, spending climbed 0.2% m/m, Core PCE Index climbed 0.2% m/m.

-US Weekly jobless claims dipped to 218k and pending home sales declined 1.5% m/m.

-EU CPI(flash) declined to 2.4% y/y and unemployment rate was reported at 6.5%.

Friday’s calendar : – US ISM(mfrg) and construction spending

-EU PMI(mfrg) and PMI(services)

-UK PMI(mfrg)

USD/INR

 

  

 83.39

83.29

EUR/USD

1.0907

  

1.0984

1.0873

GBP/USD

1.2650

  

1.2711

1.2603

USD/JPY

147.72

  

148.51

146.87

Daily Support/Resistance table

Currency Pairs

Pivot

R1

R2

R3

S1

S2

S3

EURO/USD

1.0916

1.0959

1.1028

1.1071

1.0848

1.0804

1.0736

GBP/USD

1.2649

1.2695

1.2757

1.2803

1.2587

1.2541

1.2479

USD/JPY

147.79

148.71

149.43

150.35

147.07

146.15

145.43

USD/INR

83.35

83.41

83.45

 

83.31

83.25

 

MAJOR SUPPORTS/RESISTANCES AND TREND TABLE

Currency Pair

Supports

Resistances

Trend

Remarks

EURO/USD

1.0850/1.0760

1.0960

UP

SIDE<1.0850

GBP/USD

1.2440/1.2375

1.2745

UP

SIDE<1.2440

USD/JPY

147

151.75

UP

SIDE<147

USD/INR

83.03/82.80

83.47

UP

SIDE<83.02

USD/CHF

0.8745

0.8950/0.9115

DN

UP>0.8950

Technicals: Spot closed above 50 day average and 200 day moving averages.20 day moving average is at 83.29. 50 day moving average is at 83.23.200 day moving average is at 82.61. Daily MACD is in buy zone. Important support is at 83.03/82.80 and important resistance is at 83.48. Spot closed above the average level of the day.

Intraday supports and resistances for Nov contract are:

PP: 83.37, S1:83.31, S2:83.27, R1:83.42, R2:83.47.             

Hedging strategy: Hedging decisions be taken according to comfort and accounting rates.

However on directional basis, suggest the following:

USD exports be hedged at 83.45/83.50. Imports be hedged at 83.05 for 3 months.

CROSS CURRENCY TECHNICALS:

EURO/USD: The pair is above all major moving averages. Major resistance is at 1.0960. Next major support is at 1.0850/1.0760. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying an important bottom at 1.0450. Weekly MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.0450.

GBP/USD: The pair is above all major moving averages. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.2035 and weekly MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.2035. Important support is at 1.2440/1.2375. Important resistance is at 1.2745.

USD/YEN: The pair is above 50 and 200 day major averages. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 151.75. Important resistance is at 151.75 and support is at 147.

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