06/07/2018
USDINR opened at 68.75 Y’day and the pair traded in the 68.68-69 range. Spot USDINR closed at 68.94, gain of 21 ps for USD as against prior close of 68.73.RBI reference rate was fixed at 68.75.July USD/INR closed at 69.09, gain of 15 ps for USD as compared to prior day’s close of 68.94. July Euro/INR closed at 80.92, GBP/INR at 91.69 and Yen/INR at 62.50.
FII’S have sold Rs 3637 Cr of Indian Equities in June till date . FII’S have sold 10043 Cr of Indian debt securities in June till date . On a cumulative basis, FII’S have sold Rupees 200 Cr of Indian Equities till date for this calendar year and have sold Rupees 41356 Cr of Indian debt in this calendar year till date.
Benchmark Nifty declined 0.19% y’day. DOW declined 132 points (0.54%) y’day.Nikkei declined 0.78% and Hang seng declined 0.21% y’day.
Euro is now at 1.1687, Pound at 1.3215,Yen at 110.65.
Commodities: Gold is now at USD 1254 and WT1Crude at USD 72.81.
Interest rates: USD 10 Yr yield is at 2.84% and 3 m libor closed at 2.36%. Indian 10 yr benchmark yield closed at 7.90%.
Economic news: Euro was supported by German Chancellor’s comments that EU could negotiate with US to drop auto tariffs on both sides and the same could be extended to other countries like Japan and South Korea. US data was also upbeat as ISM(non mfrg) climbed further. Focus is on US nonfarm payrolls data to be released later tonight.
Data Highlights : US Weekly jobless claims climbed to 231k, ISM (non mfrg) climbed higher to 59.1.
-US ADP employment report showed that private sector added 177k jobs in June.
-German factory orders climbed 2.6% m/m.
Friday’s calendar: US nonfarm payrolls data
| USD/INR | 69 | 68.68 | |
| EUR/USD | 1.1687 | 1.1684 | 1.1629 |
| GBP/USD | 1.3215 | 1.3252 | 1.3171 |
| USD/JPY | 110.65 | 110.64 | 110.28 |
Daily Support/Resistance table
| CurrencyPairs | Pivot | R1 | R2 | R3 | S1 | S2 | S3 |
| EURO/USD | 1.1687 | 1.1724 | 1.1757 | 1.1794 | 1.1654 | 1.1617 | 1.1584 |
| GBP/USD | 1.3234 | 1.3263 | 1.3303 | 1.3332 | 1.3194 | 1.3165 | 1.3125 |
| USD/JPY | 110.53
|
110.76 | 110.95 | 111.18
|
110.34 | 110.11 | 109.92
|
| USD/INR | 68.87 | 69.06 | 69.19 | 68.74 | 68.55 |
MAJOR SUPPORTS/RESISTANCES AND TREND TABLE
| Curency Pair | Supports | Resistances | Trend | Remarks |
| EURO/USD | 1.1508 | 1.1853/1.1960 | DN | SIDE>1.1853 |
| GBP/USD | 1.3050 | 1.3475/1.3550 | DN | SIDE>1.3475 |
| USD/JPY | 109.35/108.10 | 110.90/111.40 | UP | DN<108.10 |
| USD/INR | 67.80 | 69.10 | UP | SIDE<67.70 |
| USD/CHF | 0.98/0.9650 | 1.0060 | UP | DN <0.9785 |
Technicals: Spot closed above 100 and 200 day major moving averages. 20 day moving is at 68.06. 50 day moving average is at 67.70. 200 day moving average is at 65.32. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying bottom at 66.85 . Important support zone is at 67.80 and later at 66.85. Important resistance is at 69.10. Spot closed above its average level of the day.
Intra day supports and resistances for July contract are:
PP: 69.04,S1:68.90, S2:68.71, R1:69.23, R2:69.37.
Hedging strategy for USD/INR: Hedging decisions be taken according to comfort and accounting rates.
CROSS CURRENCY TECHNICALS:
EURO/USD: The pair is below all major moving averages. Next Major resistance is at 1.1850 and later at 1.1960. Major support is at 1.1508. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying an important bottom at 1.1508. Weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.2560.
GBP/USD: Trend is bearish in daily chart. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.3050 and weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.4375. The pair is trading below all major moving averages. Important resistance is at 1.3475 and later at 1.3550. Important support is at 1.3050.
USD/YEN: The pair is above major moving averages. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 109.35. Next important support is at 108.10. Important resistance is 110.92 and later at 111.40.
