03/05/2018

USDINR opened at 66.78 y’day and the pair traded in the 66.64-66.78 range. Spot USDINR closed at 66.67, gain of 1 ps for USD as against prior close of 66.68.RBI reference rate was fixed at 66.66. May USD/INR closed at 66.86, loss of 1 ps for USD as compared to prior day’s close of 66.87. May Euro/INR closed at 80.38, GBP/INR at 91.29 and Yen/INR at 60.93.

FII’S have sold Rs 5552 Cr of Indian Equities in April till date . FII’S have sold 10035 Cr of Indian debt securities in April . On a cumulative basis, FII’S have bought Rupees 9331 Cr of Indian Equities till date for this calendar year and have sold  Rupees 11937 Cr of Indian debt in this calendar year till date.

Benchmark Nifty declined 0.2% y’day. DOW declined 174 points (0.72%) Y’day.Nikkei declined 0.16%  and Hang seng declined 0.27% y’day.

Euro is now at 1.2076, Pound at 1.3761,Yen at 109.36.    

Commodities: Gold is now at USD 1310 and WT1Crude at USD 67.81.

Interest rates: USD 10 Yr yield is at 2.96% and 3 m libor closed at 2.36%. Indian 10 yr benchmark yield closed at 7.73%.        

Economic news: Indian Core sector growth slowed to 4.1% in March as against 5.4% in Feb. For the full 2017-18 fiscal, Core sector grew by 4.2% as against 4.8% in previous Year. GST Collections hit 1 lac Cr in April, Last Year collection was 7.4 lac Cr. Auto sales climbed 12% in April.

Fed policy meeting ended with no change as expected while the central bank expressed confidence that recent rise in inflation to near target would be sustained, leaving it on track to raise borrowing costs in June. Fed also emphasized the inflation target was “symmetric”, suggesting it was not inclined to speed up its tightening plans.

Data Highlights: –  US personal income grew 0.3% m/m, spending climbed 0.4% m/m, Core PCE index climbed 0.2% m/m,pending home sales climbed 0.4% m/m and Chicago PMI declined to 57.6.

-US ISM (mfrg) was less than expected at 57.3and construction spending declined -1.7% m/m,  US ADP employment report showed pvt sector added 204 k jobs.

-EU PMI(mfrg) was reported at 56.2.

-UK PMI(mfrg) declined to 53.9. PMI(construction) climbed to 52.5.

Thursday’s calendar: – US Weekly jobless claims and ISM(non mfrg)

-EU CPI and PPI

Daily Support/Resistance table

MAJOR SUPPORTS/RESISTANCES AND TREND TABLE

Technicals: Spot closed above 100 and 200 day major moving averages. 20 day moving         is at 65.65. 50 day moving average is at 65.21. 200 day moving average is at 64.58. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying bottom at 64.85 . Important support zone is at 66.25 and later at 66.05/65.90. Important resistance is  at 67.40. Spot closed below its average level of the day.  

Intra day supports and resistances for May contract are:

PP: 66.90,S1:66.81, S2:66.75, R1:66.95, R2:67.05

Hedging strategy for USD/INR: Hedging decisions be taken according to comfort and accounting rates.

CROSS CURRENCY TECHNICALS:

EURO/USD: The pair is above 200 day major moving average, but below 20 and 50 day moving averages. Next Major resistance is at 1.2150 and later at 1.2210. Major support is at 1.20/1.1950. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying an important top at 1.2415. Weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.2560.

GBP/USD: Trend is sideways in daily chart. Daily MACD  is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.4375 and weekly MACD is  in sell zone, implying important top at 1.4375. The pair is trading above 200 day major moving average. Important resistance is at 1.3965. Important support is at 1.3710 and later at 1.3550.      

USD/YEN: The pair is below 200 day major moving average, but above 50 and 100 day moving averages. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 104.56. Important support is at 108. Important resistance is  110.40.