FX – MORNING UPDATE :
USDINR opened at 83.34 on Friday and the pair traded in the 83.33-83.38 range. Spot USDINR closed at 83.38, gain of 5 ps for USD as against prior close of 83.33. Market was closed y’day.
RBI reference rate was fixed at 83.3675 on 24/11. Nov USD/INR closed at 83.38 on Friday, gain of 3 ps for USD as compared to prior day’s close of 83.35. Nov Euro/INR closed at 90.96, GBP/INR at 104.68 and Yen/INR at 55.79. 1 year USDINR fwd premia was trading at around 1.60% p.a. FX reserves stood at USD 595 bn as on Nov 17 th. FX reserves climbed USD 5 bn.
|
PAIRS |
RBI REF RATE (24/11) |
|
USDINR |
83.3675 |
|
EURINR |
90.93 |
|
GBPINR |
104.44 |
|
JPYINR |
55.85 |
In Nov, FPI’S have bought Rs 811 Cr of Equities and bought Rs 11599 Cr of debt . In 2022-23 fiscal year, FII’S have net sold Rs 27593 Cr of Equities and have net bought Rs 838 Cr of debt.
Benchmark Nifty declined 7 points (0.04%) on Friday. US S&P declined 9 points (0.20%) y’day. Nikkei declined 0.62% and Hang Seng declined 0.22% y’day.
Euro is now at 1.0961, Pound at 1.2642, Yen at 148.12.
Commodities: Gold is now at USD 2017 and WT1Crude at USD 75/Brent at USD 80.
Interest rates: USD 10 Yr yield is at 4.40% and 3 m libor closed at 5.64%. Indian 10 yr benchmark yield closed at 7.27%.
Economic news: Indian Q2 GDP is to be released on Nov 30 th. Last week,
US Core PCE, Spending and ISM(mfrg) data are key focus events for the coming week. These datasets are expected to play a significant role in shaping the current narrative of falling inflation and a stabilizing economy, which is expected to lead to soft landing.
Data highlights: – New home sales declined to 679k.
Tuesday’s calendar : – US House price index and consumer confidence
|
USD/INR |
|
83.38 |
83.33 |
|
|
EUR/USD |
1.0961 |
1.0960 |
1.0925 |
|
|
GBP/USD |
1.2642 |
1.2645 |
1.2591 |
|
|
USD/JPY |
148.12 |
149.68 |
148.37 |
Daily Support/Resistance table
|
Currency Pairs |
Pivot |
R1 |
R2 |
R3 |
S1 |
S2 |
S3 |
|
EURO/USD |
1.0948 |
1.0971 |
1.0983 |
1.1006 |
1.0936 |
1.0913 |
1.0901 |
|
GBP/USD |
1.2624 |
1.2657 |
1.2678 |
1.2711 |
1.2603 |
1.2570 |
1.2549 |
|
USD/JPY |
148.82 |
149.27 |
150.13 |
150.59 |
147.96 |
147.51 |
146.65 |
|
USD/INR |
83.36 |
83.39 |
83.41 |
|
83.34 |
83.31 |
|
MAJOR SUPPORTS/RESISTANCES AND TREND TABLE
|
Currency Pair |
Supports |
Resistances |
Trend |
Remarks |
|
EURO/USD |
1.0850/1.0760 |
1.0960 |
UP |
SIDE<1.0850 |
|
GBP/USD |
1.2440/1.2375 |
1.2745 |
UP |
SIDE<1.2440 |
|
USD/JPY |
147 |
151.75 |
UP |
SIDE<147 |
|
USD/INR |
83.03/82.80 |
83.47 |
UP |
SIDE<83.02 |
|
USD/CHF |
0.8745 |
0.8950/0.9115 |
DN |
UP>0.8950 |
Technicals: Spot closed above 50 day average and 200 day moving averages.20 day moving average is at 83.28. 50 day moving average is at 83.21.200 day moving average is at 82.55. Daily MACD is in buy zone. Important support is at 83.03/82.80 and important resistance is at 83.48. Spot closed above the average level of the day.
Intraday supports and resistances for Nov contract are:
PP: 83.37, S1:83.35, S2:83.32, R1:83.40, R2:83.42.
Hedging strategy: Hedging decisions be taken according to comfort and accounting rates.
However on directional basis, suggest the following:
USD exports be hedged at 83.40/83.50. Imports be hedged at 83.05 for 3 months.
CROSS CURRENCY TECHNICALS:
EURO/USD: The pair is above all major moving averages. Major resistance is at 1.0960. Next major support is at 1.0850/1.0760. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying an important bottom at 1.0450. Weekly MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.0450.
GBP/USD: The pair is above all major moving averages. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.2035 and weekly MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.2035. Important support is at 1.2440/1.2375. Important resistance is at 1.2745.
USD/YEN: The pair is above 50 and 200 day major averages. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 151.75. Important resistance is at 151.75 and support is at 147.