• By Goodwill
  • 1,190 Comments
  • January 18, 2024

FX – MORNING UPDATE :

USDINR opened at 83.13 Y’day and the pair traded in the 83.07-83.17 range. Spot USDINR closed at 83.15, gain of 2 ps for USD as against prior close of 83.13.

RBI reference rate was fixed at 83.13 on 17/01Jan USD/INR closed at 83.17 y’day, gain of 1 ps for USD as compared to prior day’s close of 83.16. Jan Euro/INR closed at 90.51, GBP/INR at 105.48 and Yen/INR at 56.41. 1 year USDINR fwd premia was trading at around 1.90% p.a.  FX reserves stood at USD 617 bn, as on Jan 5 th. Reserves declined by USD 5 bn w/w.

PAIRS

RBI REF RATE (17/01)

USDINR

83.13

EURINR

90.25

GBPINR

104.74

JPYINR

56.23

In Jan, FPI’S have bought Rs 1765 Cr of Equities and bought Rs 6546 Cr of debt . In last calendar year, FII’S have net bought Rs 172853 Cr of Equities and have net bought Rs 70489 Cr of debt.

Benchmark Nifty declined 460 points (2.09%) Y’day. US S&P declined 27 points (0.56%) y’day. Nikkei declined 0.32% and Hang Seng declined 3.71% y’day.

Euro is now at 1.0874, Pound at 1.2633, Yen at 147.32.

Commodities: Gold is now at USD 2009 and WT1Crude at USD 72.65/Brent at USD 78.

Interest rates: USD 10 Yr yield is at 4.08% and 3 m libor closed at 5.59%. Indian 10 yr benchmark yield closed at 7.16%.

Economic news: Focus is on ECB meeting.

US retail sales rose 0.6% mom to USD 709.9B in December, above expectation of 0.4% mom. 

ECB President Christine Lagarde said “it’s likely” for a rate cut in the summer, but added that she has to be “reserved”. She emphasized ECB’s data-dependent approach and acknowledged the prevailing uncertainty and certain indicators that are yet to reach desired levels.

UK CPI rose 0.4% mom in December, well above expectation of 0.2% mom. For the 12- month period, CPI accelerated from 3.9% yoy to 4.0% yoy, above expectation of 3.8% yoy.

Fed member expressed that “as long as inflation doesn’t rebound and stay elevated”, he believes Fed will be able to lower the target range for the federal funds rate “this year”. But he also clarified, “Clearly, the timing of cuts and the actual number of cuts in 2024 will depend on the incoming data.”

Data highlights: – US retail sales climbed 0.6% m/m and industrial production climbed 0.1% m/m.

-UK CPI climbed 4% y/y, PPI(output) declined -0.6% m/m and RPI climbed 5.2% y/y.

Thursday’s calendar : – US Weekly jobless claims, building permits and housing starts

USD/INR

 

 

 83.17

83.07

EUR/USD

1.0896

 

1.0885

1.0844

GBP/USD

1.2689

 

1.2698

1.2595

USD/JPY

148

 

148.54

147.07

Daily Support/Resistance table

Currency Pairs

Pivot

R1

R2

R3

S1

S2

S3

EURO/USD

1.0870

1.0896

1.0911

1.0937

1.0855

1.0829

1.0813

GBP/USD

1.2655

1.2715

1.2758

1.2818

1.2612

1.2552

1.2509

USD/JPY

146.70

147.81

148.44

149.56

146.07

144.96

144.33

USD/INR

83.13

83.19

83.23

 

83.09

83.03

 

MAJOR SUPPORTS/RESISTANCES AND TREND TABLE

Currency Pair

Supports

Resistances

Trend

Remarks

EURO/USD

1.0875/1.0760

1.1010/1.1275

SIDE

UP>1.1010

GBP/USD

1.2610

1.2810/1.30

SIDE

DN<1.2610

USD/JPY

142.85/141.70

146.50/147.50

UP

DN<141

USD/INR

82.80

83.15/83.24

SIDE

UP>83.35

USD/CHF

0.8330

0.8650

DN

UP>0.8650

Technicals: Spot closed below 20 and  50 day average but above 200 day moving averages.20 day moving average is at 83.17. 50 day moving average is at 83.24.200 day moving average is at 82.71. Daily MACD is in sell zone. Important support is at 82.80 and important resistance is at 83.17/83.24. Spot closed above the average level of the day.

Intraday supports and resistances for Jan contract are:

PP: 83.16, S1:83.11, S2:83.06, R1:83.21, R2:83.26.             

Hedging strategy: Hedging decisions be taken according to comfort and accounting rates.

However on directional basis, suggest the following:

USD exports be hedged at 83.35/83.40. Imports be hedged at 82.92/82.80 for 3 months.

CROSS CURRENCY TECHNICALS:

EURO/USD: The pair is above major moving averages. Major resistance is at 1.1275. Next major support is at 1.0875/1.0740. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying an important top at 1.1275. Weekly MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.0450.

GBP/USD: The pair is above all major moving averages. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.2810 and weekly MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.25. Important support is at 1.2610/1.25. Important resistance is at 1.2810/1.30.

USD/YEN: The pair is below 200 day moving average. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 140. Important resistance is at 146.50/147.50 and support is at 140.

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