FX – MORNING UPDATE :
USDINR opened gap down at 83.37 y’day and the pair traded in the 83.27-83.37 range. Spot USDINR closed at 83.31, loss of 36 ps for USD as against prior close of 83.67.
RBI reference rate was fixed at 83.35 on 26/03. Apr USD/INR closed at 83.36, loss of 36 ps for USD as compared to prior day’s close of 83.72. Apr Euro/INR closed at 90.54, GBP/INR at 105.51 and Yen/INR at 55.46. 1 year USDINR fwd premia was trading at around 1.57% p.a. FX reserves stood at USD 642 bn, as on March 15 th. Reserves climbed USD 6 bn w/w.
|
PAIRS |
RBI REF RATE (26/03) |
|
USDINR |
83.35 |
|
EURINR |
90.43 |
|
GBPINR |
105.45 |
|
JPYINR |
55.08 |
In March, FPI’S bought Rs 35926 Cr of Equities and bought Rs 13439 Cr of debt . In last calendar year, FII’S have net bought Rs 172853 Cr of Equities and have net bought Rs 70489 Cr of debt.
Benchmark Nifty declined 92 points (0.42%) y’day. US S&P declined 14 points (0.28%) y’day. Nikkei climbed 0.51% and Hang Seng declined 0.53% y’day.
Euro is now at 1.0825, Pound at 1.2616, Yen at 151.76.
Commodities: Gold is now at USD 2178 and WT1Crude at USD 81/Brent at USD 85.73.
Interest rates: USD 10 Yr yield is at 4.23% and 3 m libor closed at 5.59%. Indian 10 yr benchmark yield closed at 7.09%.
Economic news: Rupee recovered to 83.35 from last week close of 83.67. It remains to be seen whether the pair will go back to 83 after March end. FX Swap delivery by RBI was the single most contributory factor to last week spike to 83.70.
US durable goods orders rose 1.4% mom to USD 277.9B in February, above expectation of 1.3% mom.
Data highlights: – US New home sales declined to 662k, durables order climbed 1.4% m/m.
-US House price index climbed 6.6% y/y and consumer confidence declined to 104.7.
Wednesday’s calendar : – UK BOE Minutes
|
USD/INR |
|
83.37 |
83.27 |
|
|
EUR/USD |
1.0825 |
1.0865 |
1.0824 |
|
|
GBP/USD |
1.2616 |
1.2668 |
1.2622 |
|
|
USD/JPY |
151.76 |
151.62 |
151.21 |
Daily Support/Resistance table
|
Currency Pairs |
Pivot |
R1 |
R2 |
R3 |
S1 |
S2 |
S3 |
|
EURO/USD |
1.0826 |
1.0850 |
1.0740 |
|
1.0783 |
1.0759 |
|
|
GBP/USD |
1.2685 |
1.2719 |
1.2837 |
|
1.2567 |
1.2533 |
|
|
USD/JPY |
151.16 |
152.05 |
152.66 |
|
150.55 |
149.66 |
|
|
USD/INR |
83.31 |
83.36 |
83.41 |
|
83.25 |
83.21 |
|
MAJOR SUPPORTS/RESISTANCES AND TREND TABLE
|
Currency Pair |
Supports |
Resistances |
Trend |
Remarks |
|
EURO/USD |
1.09 |
1.07 |
DN |
UP>1.10 |
|
GBP/USD |
1.2515 |
1.28/1.29 |
DN |
UP>1.2805 |
|
USD/JPY |
149/146.50/144.35 |
152.50 |
UP |
SIDE<149 |
|
USD/INR |
83.20 |
83.47/83.70/84.10 |
SIDE |
UP>83.50 |
|
USD/CHF |
0.8890/0.8725 |
0.91 |
UP |
DN<0.8725 |
Technicals: Spot closed above major moving averages.20 day moving average is at 82.95. 50 day moving average is at 83. 200 day moving average is at 82.89. Daily MACD is in buy zone. Important support is at 83.20 and important resistance is at 83.47/83.70. Spot closed below the average level of the day.
Intraday supports and resistances for April contract are:
PP: 83.39, S1:83.17, S2:82.98, R1:83.58, R2:83.80.
Hedging strategy: Hedging decisions be taken according to comfort and accounting rates.
However on directional basis, suggest the following:
USD imports be hedged on decline to 83.35.
CROSS CURRENCY TECHNICALS:
EURO/USD: The pair is below major moving averages. Major resistance is at 1.09/1.10. Next major support is at 1.07. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying an important support at 1.07. Weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.1140.
GBP/USD: The pair is between major moving averages. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.29 and weekly MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.2517. Important support is at 1.2515. Important resistance is at 1.28/1.29.
USD/YEN: The pair is above major moving averages. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 146.50. Important resistance is at 152.50 and support is at 149/146.50.
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