FX – MORNING UPDATE :

USDINR opened at 82.73 y’day and the pair traded in the 82.66-82.78 range. Spot USDINR closed at 82.76, gain of 3 ps for USD as against prior close of 82.73.

RBI reference rate was fixed at 82.68 on 11/03. Mar USD/INR closed at 82.76, gain of 8 ps for USD as compared to prior day’s close of 82.68. Mar Euro/INR closed at 90.53, GBP/INR at 106.22 and Yen/INR at 56.58. 1 year USDINR fwd premia was trading at around 1.70% p.a.  FX reserves stood at USD 625 bn, as on March 1 st. Reserves climbed USD 6 bn w/w.

PAIRS	RBI REF RATE (11/03)
USDINR	82.68
EURINR	90.44
GBPINR	106.24
JPYINR	56.25

In March, FPI’S bought Rs 9652 Cr of Equities and bought Rs 3532 Cr of debt . In last calendar year, FII’S have net bought Rs 172853 Cr of Equities and have net bought Rs 70489 Cr of debt.

Benchmark Nifty declined 161 points (0.09%) on Thursday. US S&P declined 6 points (0.11%) y’day. Nikkei was down 2.11% and Hang Seng climbed 1.43% y’day.

Euro is now at 1.0928, Pound at 1.2817, Yen at 146.99.

Commodities: Gold is now at USD 2181 and WT1Crude at USD 78/Brent at USD 82.

Interest rates: USD 10 Yr yield is at 4.10% and 3 m libor closed at 5.59%. Indian 10 yr benchmark yield closed at 7.01%.

Economic news:  Japanese GDP indicates a modest growth of 0.1% qoq, a positive swing from the preliminary estimate of -0.1% qoq contraction. On annualized basis, GDP expanded by 0.4%, contrasting sharply with initial reports of -0.4% decline.

ECB Governing Council member said that he favors June for the first rate cut because upside inflation risks are still “alive and kicking”.“Rushing isn’t smart and beneficial,”  warning that a premature move would risk undermining the ECB’s credibility.

Market awaits US CPI data.

Data highlights: – No major data release.

Tuesday’s calendar : – US CPI

-UK unemployment rate.

USD/INR			82.78	82.66
EUR/USD	1.0928		1.0949	1.0914
GBP/USD	1.2817		1.2862	1.2795
USD/JPY	146.99		147.16	146.49

Daily Support/Resistance table

Currency Pairs	Pivot	R1	R2	R3	S1	S2	S3
EURO/USD	1.0931	1.0948	1.0966	1.0983	1.0913	1.0896	1.0878
GBP/USD	1.2825	1.2855	1.2892	1.2922	1.2788	1.2758	1.2721
USD/JPY	146.80	147.11	147.47	147.78	146.44	146.13	145.76
USD/INR	82.73	82.81	82.85		82.68	82.61

MAJOR SUPPORTS/RESISTANCES AND TREND TABLE

Currency Pair	Supports	Resistances	Trend	Remarks
EURO/USD	1.0875/1.0830	1.0990/1.1040	UP	DN<1.0830
GBP/USD	1.2710/1.2580	1.29/1.2975	UP	DN<1.2580
USD/JPY	146/144.35	149.20/151	SIDE	DN<144.35
USD/INR	82.60	82.95	DN	SIDE>82.95
USD/CHF	0.8675	0.89	UP	DN<0.8675

Technicals: Spot closed below major moving averages.20 day moving average is at 82.92. 50 day moving average is at 83.03.200 day moving average is at 82.88. Daily MACD is in sell zone. Important support is at 82.60 and important resistance is at 82.95/83.12. Spot closed above the average level of the day.

Intraday supports and resistances for March contract are:

PP: 82.73, S1:82.67, S2:82.60, R1:82.81, R2:82.86.             

Hedging strategy: Hedging decisions be taken according to comfort and accounting rates.

However on directional basis, suggest the following:

USD exports be hedged at 82.85/82.95. Imports be hedged at 82.60 for 1 month.

CROSS CURRENCY TECHNICALS:

EURO/USD: The pair is above major moving averages. Major resistance is at 1.0995/1.1040. Next major support is at 1.0875/1.0830. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying an important support at 1.07. Weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.1140.

GBP/USD: The pair is above major moving averages. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.2517 and weekly MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.2517. Important support is at 1.2517. Important resistance is at 1.29/1.2995.

USD/YEN: The pair is below 50 day, but still above 200 day moving averages. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 150.90. Important resistance is at 149.20/150.90 and support is at 146/144.35.