09/10/2018
USDINR opened at 73.96 y’day and the pair traded in the 73.77-74.10 range. Spot USDINR closed at 74.07, gain of 31 ps ps for USD as against prior close of 73.76.RBI reference rate was fixed at 73.92. Rupee showed no signs of abatement in weakness. RBI has made it clear that market forces can freely determine exchange rate levels. Oct USD/INR closed at 74.28, gain of 33 ps for USD as compared to prior day’s close of 73.95. Oct Euro/INR closed at 85.38, GBP/INR at 96.86 and Yen/INR at 65.61.
FII’S sold Rs 5395 Cr of Indian Equities in Oct till date . FII’S sold Rs 1591 Cr of Indian debt securities in Oct till date . On a cumulative basis, FII’S have sold Rupees 15017 Cr of Indian Equities till date for this calendar year and have sold Rupees 50892 Cr of Indian debt in this calendar year till date.
Benchmark Nifty climbed 0.31% y’day. DOW climbed 39 points (0.15%) Y’day. Nikkei declined 0.80% and Hang seng declined 1.39% y’day.
Euro is now at 1.1491, Pound at 1.3093,Yen at 113.14.
Commodities: Gold is now at USD 1193 and WT1Crude at USD 74.62.
Interest rates: USD 10 Yr yield is at 3.23% and 3 m libor closed at 2.39%. Indian 10 yr benchmark yield closed at 7.97%.
Economic news: China cut RRR by 100 bps and injected 1.2 trn RMB liquidity. PBOC reinforced that it would maintain the “prudent and neutral” monetary policy, and keep the renminbi (Chinese yuan) movement stable. Global markets declined again y’day on rising US yields.
Data Highlights: – EU sentix investor confidence was reported at 11.4.
Tuesday’s calendar:- No major data.
| USD/INR | 74.10 | 73.76 | |
| EUR/USD | 1.1491 | 1.1530 | 1.1460 |
| GBP/USD | 1.3093 | 1.3133 | 1.3028 |
| USD/JPY | 113.14 | 113.94 | 112.82 |
Daily Support/Resistance table
| CurrencyPairs | Pivot | R1 | R2 | R3 | S1 | S2 | S3 |
| EURO/USD | 1.1495 | 1.1530 | 1.1565 | 1.1600 | 1.1460 | 1.1425 | 1.1390 |
| GBP/USD | 1.3085 | 1.3142 | 1.3190 | 1.3247 | 1.3037 | 1.2980 | 1.2932 |
| USD/JPY | 113.29
|
113.76 | 114.41 | 114.88
|
112.64 | 112.17 | 111.52
|
| USD/INR | 73.98 | 74.19 | 74.31 | 73.86 | 73.65 |
MAJOR SUPPORTS/RESISTANCES AND TREND TABLE
| Curency Pair | Supports | Resistances | Trend | Remarks |
| EURO/USD | 1.13 | 1.1650/1.1820 | DOWN | UP>1.1830 |
| GBP/USD | 1.2925/1.2785 | 1.33 | SIDE | DN<1.2785 |
| USD/JPY | 113.20/111.85 | 114.70 | UP | DN<111.85 |
| USD/INR | 72.90 | UP | SIDE<72.90 | |
| USD/CHF | 0.9830/0.9730 | 1.0070 | UP | DN <0.9730 |
Technicals: Spot closed above 100 and 200 day major moving averages. 20 day moving is at 72.67. 50 day moving average is at 70.81. 200 day moving average is at 67.06. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying bottom at 68.30 . Important support zone is at 72.90/72.40. Spot closed above its average level of the day.
Intra day supports and resistances for Oct contract are:
PP: 74.18,S1:74.05, S2:73.82, R1:74.41, R2:74.54.
Hedging strategy for USD/INR: Hedging decisions be taken according to comfort and accounting rates.
CROSS CURRENCY TECHNICALS:
EURO/USD: The pair is below major moving averages. Next Major resistance is at 1.1820 and later at 1.1960. Major support is at 1.13. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying an important top at 1.1820. Weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.2560.
GBP/USD: Trend is sideways in daily chart. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.33 and weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.4375. The pair is trading below 200 day moving average. Important resistance is at 1.33 and later at 1.3560. Important support is at 1.2925 and later at 1.2785.
USD/YEN: The pair is above major moving averages. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 109.70. Next important support is at 113.20/111.85. Important resistance is at 114.70.
