04/10/2018
USDINR opened higher at 73.24 y’day and the pair traded in the 72.92-73.41 range. Spot USDINR closed at 73.34, gain of 43 ps ps for USD as against prior close of 72.91.RBI reference rate was fixed at 73.03. Rupee sunk further as Crude prices climbed steeply. USD’S rally against EM Currencies also contributed to Rupee weakness. Oct USD/INR closed at 73.60, gain of 45 ps for USD as compared to prior day’s close of 73.15. Oct Euro/INR closed at 85.13, GBP/INR at 95.56 and Yen/INR at 64.76.
FII’S sold Rs 7924 Cr of Indian Equities in Sept . FII’S sold Rs 9858 Cr of Indian debt securities in Sept . On a cumulative basis, FII’S have sold Rupees 7923 Cr of Indian Equities till date for this calendar year and have sold Rupees 48631 Cr of Indian debt in this calendar year till date.
Benchmark Nifty declined 1.36% y’day. DOW climbed 122 points (0.46%) Y’day. Nikkei declined 0.66% and Hang seng declined 0.13% y’day.
Euro is now at 1.1471, Pound at 1.2931,Yen at 114.25.
Commodities: Gold is now at USD 1211 and WT1Crude at USD 75.22.
Interest rates: USD 10 Yr yield is at 3.06% and 3 m libor closed at 2.36%. Indian 10 yr benchmark yield closed at 8.02%.
Economic news: USD rallied against Euro and other majors as US data was strong. US 10 Year Treasury yield spiked to 3.18% .Brent Crude breached USD 86. Focus is on RBI policy announcement scheduled on Friday. This is significant considering the steep decline in Rupee and default by IL&FS.
Data Highlights: – US ISM(non mfrg) climbed to 61.6 and ADP employment report reported 230k job additions in private sector.
-EU PMI(services) was reported at 54.7 and retail sales declined -0.2% m/m.
-UK PMI(services) dipped to 53.9.
Thursday’s calendar:- US weekly jobless claims and factory orders.
| USD/INR | 73.41 | 72.92 | |
| EUR/USD | 1.1471 | 1.1593 | 1.1464 |
| GBP/USD | 1.2931 | 1.3022 | 1.2925 |
| USD/JPY | 114.25 | 114.55 | 113.52 |
Daily Support/Resistance table
| CurrencyPairs | Pivot | R1 | R2 | R3 | S1 | S2 | S3 |
| EURO/USD | 1.1511 | 1.1558 | 1.1640 | 1.1687 | 1.1429 | 1.1382 | 1.1300 |
| GBP/USD | 1.2962 | 1.2999 | 1.3059 | 1.3096 | 1.2902 | 1.2865 | 1.2805 |
| USD/JPY | 114.19
|
114.86 | 115.22 | 115.89
|
113.83 | 113.16 | 112.80
|
| USD/INR | 73.22 | 73.52 | 73.71 | 73.03 | 72.73 |
MAJOR SUPPORTS/RESISTANCES AND TREND TABLE
| Curency Pair | Supports | Resistances | Trend | Remarks |
| EURO/USD | 1.1525/1.13 | 1.1820 | SIDE | DN<1.1525 |
| GBP/USD | 1.3045/1.2990 | 1.33 | SIDE | DN<1.2990 |
| USD/JPY | 111.85/109.70 | 114.70 | UP | DN<109.70 |
| USD/INR | 71.50/70.70 | 72.95 | UP | SIDE<71.50 |
| USD/CHF | 0.9640/0.9540 | 0.9870/1.0070 | UP | DN <0.9540 |
Technicals: Spot closed above 100 and 200 day major moving averages. 20 day moving is at 72.33. 50 day moving average is at 70.51. 200 day moving average is at 66.89. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying bottom at 68.30 . Important support zone is at 72.90/72.40. Important resistance is at 72.95 and later at 73.45. Spot closed above its average level of the day.
Intra day supports and resistances for Oct contract are:
PP: 73.47,S1:73.28, S2:72.96, R1:73.79, R2:73.98.
Hedging strategy for USD/INR: Hedging decisions be taken according to comfort and accounting rates.
CROSS CURRENCY TECHNICALS:
EURO/USD: The pair is below major moving averages. Next Major resistance is at 1.1820 and later at 1.1960. Major support is at 1.1525 and later at 1.13. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying an important top at 1.1820. Weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.2560.
GBP/USD: Trend is sideways in daily chart. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.33 and weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.4375. The pair is trading below 200 day moving average. Important resistance is at 1.33 and later at 1.3560. Important support is at 1.3010/1.2960 and later at 1.2785.
USD/YEN: The pair is above major moving averages. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 109.70. Next important support is at 111.85/109.70. Important resistance is at 114.70.
