• By Goodwill
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  • March 1, 2024

FX – MORNING UPDATE :

USDINR opened at 82.89 y’day and the pair traded in the 82.88-82.94 range. Spot USDINR closed at 82.91, gain of 4 ps for USD as against prior close of 82.87. Rupee gained 14 ps in Feb to close at 82.91 as against 83.05 in Jan end.

RBI reference rate was fixed at 82.92 on 29/02Feb USD/INR closed at 82.97, unchanged for USD as compared to prior day’s close of 82.97. Feb Euro/INR closed at 89.99, GBP/INR at 105.04 and Yen/INR at 55.61. 1 year USDINR fwd premia was trading at around 1.74% p.a.  FX reserves stood at USD 616 bn, as on Feb 16 th.

PAIRS

RBI REF RATE (29/02)

USDINR

82.92

EURINR

89.86

GBPINR

105.03

JPYINR

55.36

In Feb, FPI’S sold Rs 201 Cr of Equities and bought Rs 19826 Cr of debt . In last calendar year, FII’S have net bought Rs 172853 Cr of Equities and have net bought Rs 70489 Cr of debt.

Benchmark Nifty climbed 31 points (0.14%) y’day. US S&P climbed 26 points (0.52%) y’day. Nikkei is up 1.7% and Hang Seng is up 0.13% in early trade today.

Euro is now at 1.0819, Pound at 1.2631, Yen at 150.37.

Commodities: Gold is now at USD 2045 and WT1Crude at USD 78.50/Brent at USD 82.10.

Interest rates: USD 10 Yr yield is at 4.25% and 3 m libor closed at 5.59%. Indian 10 yr benchmark yield closed at 7.07%.

Economic news: Indian Q3 GDP stunned expectations to climb by 8.4%. Q2 GDP was revised upwards to 8.1% and Q1 GDP was also revised upwards to 8.2%. CSO expects FY 24 growth at 7.6% as against RBI estimate of 7%. Mfrg climbed 11.6% y/y, construction climbed 9.5%. Trade, transport and hotel services climbed 6.7% Agri sector contracted 0.8% due to poor rainfall in some areas. India’s economic growth during the December quarter has emerged as a surprise for economists who were expecting a contraction in its growth due to a nominal decline in government spending, slow growth of the industrial output, and an uneven monsoon in the third quarter. However, a strong construction and manufacturing sector helped the nation in outperforming the experts’ expectations.

Private consumption grew only by 3.6%. Govt consumption contracted 3.2%. Gross fixed capital formation grew by 32.4% in Q3. Investment growth outpaced consumption growth.

Core sector grew by 3.6% in Jan, lowest in 15 months.

US headline PCE price index slowed from 2.6% yoy to 2.4% yoy. Core PCE price index slowed from 2.9% yoy to 2.8% yoy. Both matched expectations. US personal income rose USD 233.7B or 1.0% mom in January, well above expectation of 0.5% mom. Personal spending rose USD 43.9B or 0.2% mom, matched expectations.

Data highlights: – US House price index climbed 6.1% y/y, core durables order declined -0.3% m/m and consumer confidence declined to 106.7.

-US Weekly jobless claims climbed to 215k. Personal spending climbed 0.2% m/m, income rose 1% m/m. Core PCE index climbed 0.4% m/m. Pending home sales declined 4.9% m/m.

-German retail sales declined -0.4% m/m.

 Friday’s calendar : – US ISM(mfrg), construction spending

-EU Core CPI (flash) and PMI(mfrg-flash)

-UK PMI(mfrg-flash)

USD/INR

 

 

 82.94

82.88

EUR/USD

1.0819

 

1.0857

1.0795

GBP/USD

1.2631

 

1.2683

1.2611

USD/JPY

150.37

 

150.70

149.21

Daily Support/Resistance table

Currency Pairs

Pivot

R1

R2

R3

S1

S2

S3

EURO/USD

1.0818

1.0841

1.0880

1.0903

1.0779

1.0756

1.0717

GBP/USD

1.2639

1.2667

1.2711

1.2739

1.2595

1.2567

1.2523

USD/JPY

149.96

150.71

151.45

152.21

149.22

148.47

147.73

USD/INR

82.91

82.94

82.97

 

82.88

82.85

 

MAJOR SUPPORTS/RESISTANCES AND TREND TABLE

Currency Pair

Supports

Resistances

Trend

Remarks

EURO/USD

1.07

1.0890

SIDE

UP>1.0890

GBP/USD

1.2515

1.2710/1.2830

SIDE

UP>1.2710

USD/JPY

148.80/146.85

151/152

UP

SIDE<146.85

USD/INR

82.80

82.96/83.12

SIDE

UP>83.12

USD/CHF

0.8730/0.8620

0.8850

UP

DN<0.8620

Technicals: Spot closed below 20 and 50 day average but above 200 day moving averages.20 day moving average is at 82.96. 50 day moving average is at 83.07.200 day moving average is at 82.82. Daily MACD is in sell zone. Important support is at 82.80 and important resistance is at 82.96/83.12. Spot closed  at the average level of the day.

Intraday supports and resistances for Feb contract are:

PP: 82.89, S1:82.86, S2:82.84, R1:82.91, R2:82.94.             

Hedging strategy: Hedging decisions be taken according to comfort and accounting rates.

However on directional basis, suggest the following:

USD exports be hedged at 83.05/83.12. Imports be hedged at 82.80 for 2 months.

CROSS CURRENCY TECHNICALS:

EURO/USD: The pair is between major moving averages. Major resistance is at 1.0890. Next major support is at 1.07. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying an important support at 1.07. Weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.1140.

GBP/USD: The pair is between major moving averages. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.25 and weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.2829. Important support is at 1.25. Important resistance is at 1.2710/1.2830.

USD/YEN: The pair is above all major moving averages. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 150.90. Important resistance is at 150.90/152 and support is at 148.80/146.85.

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