• By Goodwill
  • 1 Comment
  • October 3, 2023

FX RATES AND USDINR FWDS :

Major developments:

USD is now at 83.20. USDINR opened at 83.19. Fwd premia – 1 year fwd premia is at 1.82% p.a
 
-Rupee’s decline is capped even as USD is resilient against majors.
 
-RBI’S policy statement is to be released on Oct 6 th. RBI is likely to keep rates unchanged.
 
-Indian GST Collection climbed 10% y/y to Rs 1.62 lac Cr.
 
-US Nonfarm payrolls and ISM(services) data are key events from US.
 
-USD gained further against majors as US Yields surged, following better than expected mfrg data.
USDINR View: RBI’S intervention keeps Rupee away from significant decline. On the downside, USDINR may have strong support at 83/82.80. Rupee’s Monthly range (hi/lo) is the lowest in last 15 months. It shows how volatility is being controlled by RBI. Implied volatility is below 3% p.a. now. It used to average 5% and spike to 8% during Rupee weakness. Expect 83-83.70 range for USDINR in Oct.
 
RBI rates
 
Trade Date  1 USD 1 GBP 1 EUR 100 YEN
29-Sep-23 83.06 101.67 87.94 55.81
-USDINR is at 83.20.Prior day’s close was 83.08.
-Indian Equity indices decline.
-Indian 10 year G-SEC yield is at 7.22%.
-USDINR 1 yr fwd premia is at 1.82%.
USDINR @ 83.20, EUR/USD@ 1.0464, GBP/USD @ 1.2066, USD/JPY @ 149.87, EUR/INR @ 87.07, GBP/INR @ 100.40, JPY/INR @ 55.51.
Gold@1820, Brent Crude @ 89.80, Nifty @ 19527(-111), 10 Year G-SEC @ 7.22%.
 
Hedging:
USDINR payables can be hedged at 82.93. Eur receivables can be hedged on rally to 88/88.70.
GBPINR receivables can be hedged closer to 102.40/103.75.
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Comments

  1. Gaza and its Resistance to Israel’s Brutal Attacks
    December 2, 2023

    Very well presented. Every quote was awesome and thanks for sharing the content. Keep sharing and keep motivating others.

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