FX RATES AND USDINR FWDS :
Major developments:
USD is now at 83.20. USDINR opened at 83.19. Fwd premia – 1 year fwd premia is at 1.82% p.a.
-Rupee’s decline is capped even as USD is resilient against majors.
-RBI’S policy statement is to be released on Oct 6 th. RBI is likely to keep rates unchanged.
-Indian GST Collection climbed 10% y/y to Rs 1.62 lac Cr.
-US Nonfarm payrolls and ISM(services) data are key events from US.
-USD gained further against majors as US Yields surged, following better than expected mfrg data.
USDINR View: RBI’S intervention keeps Rupee away from significant decline. On the downside, USDINR may have strong support at 83/82.80. Rupee’s Monthly range (hi/lo) is the lowest in last 15 months. It shows how volatility is being controlled by RBI. Implied volatility is below 3% p.a. now. It used to average 5% and spike to 8% during Rupee weakness. Expect 83-83.70 range for USDINR in Oct.
RBI rates
| Trade Date | 1 USD | 1 GBP | 1 EUR | 100 YEN |
| 29-Sep-23 | 83.06 | 101.67 | 87.94 | 55.81 |
-USDINR is at 83.20.Prior day’s close was 83.08.
-Indian Equity indices decline.
-Indian 10 year G-SEC yield is at 7.22%.
-USDINR 1 yr fwd premia is at 1.82%.
USDINR @ 83.20, EUR/USD@ 1.0464, GBP/USD @ 1.2066, USD/JPY @ 149.87, EUR/INR @ 87.07, GBP/INR @ 100.40, JPY/INR @ 55.51.
Gold@1820, Brent Crude @ 89.80, Nifty @ 19527(-111), 10 Year G-SEC @ 7.22%.
Hedging:
USDINR payables can be hedged at 82.93. Eur receivables can be hedged on rally to 88/88.70.
GBPINR receivables can be hedged closer to 102.40/103.75.
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