FX – MORNING UPDATE :

USDINR opened at 83.27 y’day and the pair traded in the 83.23-83.36 range. Spot USDINR closed at 83.35, gain of 9 ps for USD as against prior close of 83.26.

RBI reference rate was fixed at 83.33 on 20/11. Nov USD/INR closed at 83.37, gain of 11 ps for USD as compared to prior day’s close of 83.26. Nov Euro/INR closed at 91.06, GBP/INR at 103.93 and Yen/INR at 56.31. 1 year USDINR fwd premia was trading at around 1.56% p.a.  FX reserves stood at USD 590.32 bn as on Nov 10 th.  

In Nov, FPI’S have bought Rs 1866 Cr of Equities and bought Rs 11531 Cr of debt . In 2022-23 fiscal year, FII’S have net sold Rs 27593 Cr of Equities and have net bought Rs 838 Cr of debt.

Benchmark Nifty declined 38 points (0.19%) y’day. US S&P climbed 33 points (0.74%) . Nikkei declined 0.64% and Hang Seng climbed 1.66%.

Euro is now at 1.0916, Pound at 1.2461, Yen at 149.59.

Commodities: Gold is now at USD 1992 and WT1Crude at USD 77/Brent at USD 82.

Interest rates: USD 10 Yr yield is at 4.41% and 3 m libor closed at 5.64%. Indian 10 yr benchmark yield closed at 7.23%.

Economic news: Rupee declined 9 ps as foreign fund outflows weighed on Rupee. Rupee has been declining despite fall in USD index and downtrend in Crude prices.

German Central bank report says that headline inflation at 3.0% and core inflation at 4.2% are “still well above historical average.” The Bundesbank anticipates that the inflation rate is “likely to fluctuate around its current value in the coming months,” indicating ongoing price stability concerns.The report forecasts that a slight economic recovery is “only expected after the turn of the year”.

ECB member expressed skepticism regarding market expectations of an early easing of monetary policy. His comments highlight a crucial divergence between market forecasts and ECB’s potential policy path in the face of ongoing inflationary pressures.

Data highlights: – No major data release.

Tuesday’s calendar : – US Existing home sales

Daily Support/Resistance table

MAJOR SUPPORTS/RESISTANCES AND TREND TABLE

Technicals: Spot closed above 50 day average and 200 day moving averages.20 day moving average is at 83.24. 50 day moving average is at 83.19.200 day moving average is at 82.55. Daily MACD is in sell zone. Important support is at 83.03/82.80 and important resistance is at 83.48. Spot closed above the average level of the day.

Intraday supports and resistances for Nov contract are:

PP: 83.33, S1:83.27, S2:83.19, R1:83.39, R2:83.43.             

Hedging strategy: Hedging decisions be taken according to comfort and accounting rates.

However on directional basis, suggest the following:

USD exports be hedged at 83.40/83.50. Imports be hedged at 83.05 for 3 months.

CROSS CURRENCY TECHNICALS:

EURO/USD: The pair is above all major moving averages. Major resistance is at 1.0960. Next major support is at 1.0830/1.0760. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying an important bottom at 1.0450. Weekly MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.0460.

GBP/USD: The pair is below 100 but above 50 and  200 day averages. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.2035 and weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.3145. Important support is at 1.2250. Important resistance is at 1.2510.

USD/YEN: The pair is above 50 and 200 day major averages. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 152. Important resistance is at 152 and support is at 146.