29/06/2018

USDINR opened gap up at 68.89 y’day and the pair traded in the 68.72-69.09 range. Spot USDINR closed at 68.79, gain of  19 ps for USD as against prior close of 68.60.RBI reference rate was fixed at 68.94. Rupee declined tracking further rally in Crude. Equity indices also declined on F&O settlement day. RBI’S intervention helped Rupee to recover from life time lows of 69.09. July USD/INR closed at 69.03, gain of 14 ps for USD as compared to prior day’s close of 68.89. July Euro/INR closed at 80.12, GBP/INR at 90.46 and Yen/INR at 62.70.

FII’S have sold Rs 3697 Cr of Indian Equities in June till date . FII’S have sold 10738 Cr of Indian debt securities in June till date . On a cumulative basis, FII’S have sold Rupees 258 Cr of Indian Equities till date for this calendar year and have sold  Rupees 42051 Cr of Indian debt in this calendar year till date.

Benchmark Nifty declined 0.77% y’day. DOW climbed 98 points (0.41%) y’day.Nikkei declined 0.01%  and Hang seng climbed 0.50% y’day.

Euro is now at 1.1634, Pound at 1.3112,Yen at 110.68.    

Commodities: Gold is now at USD 1250 and WT1Crude at USD 73.19.

Interest rates: USD 10 Yr yield is at 2.85% and 3 m libor closed at 2.36%. Indian 10 yr benchmark yield closed at 7.93%.        

Economic news: US Q1 growth was finalized at 2.0%, revised down from 2.2% and missed expectation of 2.2%. GDP price index was revised up to 2.2%, from 1.9%.

In its monthly bulletin, ECB noted that “euro area economic expansion remains solid and broad-based across countries and sectors, despite recent weaker than expected data and indicators.” In the June Euro system macroeconomic projections, annual real GDP growth is projected to be at 2.1% in 2018, 1.9% in 2019 and 1.7% in 2020. HICP inflation is projected to be at 1.7% in 2018, 2019 and 2020.

On the global scale, ECB noted, that “following a year of strong and highly synchronized growth, global momentum slowed somewhat in the early part of 2018.” While, growth is expected to rebound in near term, it warned that “the implementation of higher trade tariffs, amid ongoing discussions of further protectionist measures, represents a risk to the global economic outlook.”

 Data Highlights : US weekly jobless claims was reported at 227k.

-EU GDP(final) and German Gfk consumer confidence climbed to 10.7.

Friday’s calendar: US personal income, spending, Core PCE index and Chicago PMI

-EU CPI(flash)

-Japanese CPI, unemployment rate and industrial production   

Daily Support/Resistance table

MAJOR SUPPORTS/RESISTANCES AND TREND TABLE

Technicals: Spot closed above 100 and 200 day major moving averages. 20 day moving is at 67.75. 50 day moving average is at 67.43. 200 day moving average is at 65.20. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying bottom at 66.85 . Important support zone is at 68.45 and later at 67.70. Important resistance is at 69.10. Spot closed below its average level of the day.  

Intra day supports and resistances for July contract are:

PP: 69.10,S1:68.87, S2:68.73, R1:69.25, R2:69.47.                                                               

Hedging strategy for USD/INR: Hedging decisions be taken according to comfort and accounting rates.

CROSS CURRENCY TECHNICALS:

EURO/USD: The pair is below all major moving averages. Next Major resistance is at 1.1850 and later at 1.1960. Major support is at 1.1508. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying an important top at 1.1850. Weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.2560.

GBP/USD: Trend is bearish in daily chart. Daily MACD  is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.31 and weekly MACD is  in sell zone, implying important top at 1.4375. The pair is trading below all major moving averages. Important resistance is at 1.3475 and later at 1.3550. Important support is at 1.31.           

USD/YEN: The pair is above major moving averages. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 110.92. Important support is at 108.10. Important resistance is 110.92 and later at 111.40.