30/05/2018

USDINR opened at 67.61 y’day and the pair traded in the 67.61-67.98 range. Spot USDINR closed at 67.86, gain of 43 ps for USD as against prior close of 67.43.RBI reference rate was fixed at 67.82 Rupee declined after last two days of massive gain. The pair is very volatile. Rupee declined due to inflows tapering off on account of US bank holiday. June USD/INR closed at 68.09, gain of 46 ps for USD as compared to prior day’s close of 67.63. June Euro/INR closed at 78.72, GBP/INR at 90.31 and Yen/INR at 62.61.

FII’S sold Rs 4739 Cr of Indian Equities in May till date . FII’S also sold 16046 Cr of Indian debt securities in May . On a cumulative basis, FII’S have bought Rupees 3675 Cr of Indian Equities till date for this calendar year and have sold  Rupees 29816 Cr of Indian debt in this calendar year till date.

Benchmark Nifty declined 0.52% y’day. DOW declined 391 points (1.58%) Y’day.Nikkei declined 0.55%  and Hang seng declined 1% y’day.

Euro is now at 1.1529, Pound at 1.3253,Yen at 108.61     

Commodities: Gold is now at USD 1299 and WT1Crude at USD 66.48.

Interest rates: USD 10 Yr yield is at 2.77% and 3 m libor closed at 2.36%. Indian 10 yr benchmark yield closed at 7.76%.        

Economic news: Euro plunged and then recovered mildly as political crisis in Italy weighed. China’s PBoC Governor said that the authority will ensure gradual, steady efforts to financial sector reforms. Global stocks fell, rattled by Italian political developments. Italian Yields spiked higher, even as safe haven demand pushed US yields lower. U.S.-China trade tensions also added to the somber mood in markets.

Focus is on Indian GDP data to be released tomorrow.

Data Highlights: US S&P house price index climbed 6.8% y/y. Consumer confidence dipped to 128.

Wednesday’s calendar: – US ADP employment report, trade balance

-German retail sales and UK retail sales

Daily Support/Resistance table

MAJOR SUPPORTS/RESISTANCES AND TREND TABLE

Technicals: Spot closed above 100 and 200 day major moving averages. 20 day moving         is at 67.57. 50 day moving average is at 66.28. 200 day moving average is at 64.66. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying top at 68.42 . Important support zone is at 67.30 and later at 66.50. Important resistance is  at 68.42. Spot closed above its average level of the day.  

Intra day supports and resistances for May contract are:

PP: 67.91,S1:67.52, S2:67.27, R1:68.16, R2:68.55.

Hedging strategy for USD/INR: Hedging decisions be taken according to comfort and accounting rates.

CROSS CURRENCY TECHNICALS:

EURO/USD: The pair is below all major moving averages. Next Major resistance is at 1.1820 and later at 1.1960. Major support is at 1.1550. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying an important top at 1.2415. Weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.2560.

GBP/USD: Trend is bearish in daily chart. Daily MACD  is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.3618 and weekly MACD is  in sell zone, implying important top at 1.4375. The pair is trading below all major moving average. Important resistance is at 1.3450 and later at 1.3550. Important support is at 1.3040.        

USD/YEN: The pair is below 200 day major moving average, but above 50 and 100 day moving averages. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 111.40. Important support is at 108.60. Important resistance is  111.40 and later at 113.75.                                  

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