• By Goodwill
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  • May 7, 2024

FX – MORNING UPDATE :

USDINR opened at 83.42 Y’day and the pair traded in the 83.42-83.52 range. Spot USDINR closed at 83.48, gain of 3 ps for USD as against prior close of 83.45.

RBI reference rate was fixed at 83.47 on 06/05May USD/INR closed at 83.60, gain of 7 ps for USD as compared to prior day’s close of 83.53. May Euro/INR closed at 89837, GBP/INR at 104.87 and Yen/INR at 54.37. 1 year USDINR fwd premia was trading at around 1.69% p.a.  FX reserves stood at USD 638 bn, as on April 26 th. Reserves decreased by USD 2.4 bn w/w.

PAIRS

RBI REF RATE (06/05)

USDINR

83.47

EURINR

89.83

GBPINR

104.78

JPYINR

54.28

In May till date, FPI’S have sold Rs 695 Cr of Equities and sold Rs 1458 Cr of debt . In FY 23-24, FII’S have net bought Rs 206279 Cr of Equities and have net bought Rs 123120 Cr of debt.

Benchmark Nifty declined 33 points (0.15%) y’day. US S&P climbed 53 points (1.03%) y’day. Nikkei closed 0.10% lower on 2/5 and Hang Seng was up 0.55% y’day.

Euro is now at 1.0765, Pound at 1.2557, Yen at 154.44.

Commodities: Gold is now at USD 2324 and WT1Crude at USD 78.60/Brent at USD 83.50.

Interest rates: USD 10 Yr yield is at 4.49% and 3 m libor closed at 5.59%. Indian 10 yr benchmark yield closed at 7.11%.

Economic newsEurozone’s PMI services index was finalized at to 53.3 in April, marking a notable improvement from March’s 51.5. PMI Composite was finalized at 51.7, up from the previous month’s 50.3 Both reached the highest levels in 11 months.

Data highlights: – EU PMI(services-final) climbed to 53.3 and sentix investor confidence improved to -3.6.

Tuesday’s calendar : – EU retail sales

-UK PMI(construction)

USD/INR

 

 

 83.52

83.42

EUR/USD

1.0765

 

1.0791

1.0755

GBP/USD

1.2557

 

1.2595

1.2538

USD/JPY

154.44

 

154.29

153.32

Daily Support/Resistance table

Currency Pairs

Pivot

R1

R2

R3

S1

S2

S3

EURO/USD

1.0771

1.0787

1.0807

1.0823

1.0751

1.0735

1.0715

GBP/USD

1.2564

1.2590

1.2621

1.2647

1.2533

1.2507

1.2476

USD/JPY

153.95

154.58

154.91

155.54

153.61

152.99

152.65

USD/INR

83.46

83.51

83.56

 

83.42

83.36

 

 MAJOR SUPPORTS/RESISTANCES AND TREND TABLE

Currency Pair

Supports

Resistances

Trend

Remarks

EURO/USD

1.06/1.0520

1.08/1.0840

DN

UP>1.0845

GBP/USD

1.23/1.2220

1.2540/1.2620

DN

UP>1.2620

USD/JPY

154.80/152

159

UP

SIDE<152

USD/INR

83.35/83.17/83.10

83.70

UP

SIDE<83.35

USD/CHF

0.8950/0.8830

0.9230

UP

SIDE<0.8950

Technicals: Spot closed above major moving averages.20 day moving average is at 83.35. 50 day moving average is at 83.15. 200 day moving average is at 83.04. Daily MACD is in sell zone. Important support is at 83.35/83.17/83.10 and important resistance is at 83.70. Spot closed above the average level of the day.

Intraday supports and resistances for May contract are:

PP: 83.57, S1:83.51, S2:83.43, R1:83.66, R2:83.71.             

Hedging strategy: Hedging decisions be taken according to comfort and accounting rates.

However on directional basis, suggest the following:

USD imports be hedged on decline to 83.17/83.10.

CROSS CURRENCY TECHNICALS:

EURO/USD: The pair is below major moving averages. Major resistance is at 1.08/1.0845. Next major support is at 1.06/1.0520/1.0450. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying an important bottom at 1.06. Weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.1140.

GBP/USD: The pair is below major moving averages. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.23 and weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.2895. Important support is at 1.23/1.2230. Important resistance is at 1.2630.

USD/YEN: The pair is above major moving averages. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 160. Important resistance is at 160 and support is at 151.85/149.

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