FX MORNING UPDATE

07/12/2018

                                                                                     

USDINR opened higher at 70.79 y’day and the pair traded in the 70.75-71.14 range. Spot USDINR closed at 70.90, gain of 43 ps for USD as against prior close of 70.47. RBI reference rate was fixed at 71.03. Nov USD/INR closed at 71.04, gain of 40 ps for USD as compared to prior day’s close of 70.64. Nov Euro/INR closed at 80.69, GBP/INR at 90.58 and Yen/INR at 63.611.

FII’S have invested Rs 10721 Cr in Indian Equities in Nov . FII’S have bought Rs 2115 Cr of Indian debt securities in Nov till date . On a cumulative basis, FII’S have sold Rupees 26536 Cr of Indian Equities till date for this calendar year and have sold  Rupees 57204 Cr of Indian debt in this calendar year till date.

Benchmark Nifty declined 1.69% y’day. DOW climbed 287 points (1.13%). Nikkei declined 1.91% and Hang seng declined 2.47% y’day.

Euro is now at 1.1375, Pound at 1.2774,Yen at 112.72.    

Commodities: Gold is now at USD 1244 and WT1Crude at USD 51.33 /Brent at USD 59.80.

Interest rates: USD 10 Yr yield is at 2.92% and 3 m libor closed at 2.39%. Indian 10 yr benchmark yield closed at 7.42%.        

Economic news: Global stocks declined as markets interpreted arrest of Chinese HUAWEI executive by US as serious setback to trade truce entered last week by US and China. US and Global yields declined as markets are worried over future Global growth rate due to trade issues. OPEC tentatively agreed an oil-output cut on Thursday but is waiting to hear from non-OPEC heavyweight Russia before deciding the exact volume of production reduction aimed at propping up crude prices.

                                                                                                                       

Data highlights : -:- US ISM (non mfrg) climbed to 60.7, beige book and ADP employment report showed 179k pvt sector jobs added last month.

-US Weekly jobless claims climbed to 231k and factory orders declined -2.1% m/m.   

Friday’s calendar:- US nonfarm payrolls

-EU GDP (revised)                 

USD/INR   71.14 70.75
EUR/USD 1.1375 1.1412 1.1322
GBP/USD 1.2774 1.2809 1.2701
USD/JPY 112.72 113.16 112.24

Daily Support/Resistance table

CurrencyPairs Pivot R1 R2 R3 S1 S2 S3
EURO/USD 1.1370 1.1418 1.1460 1.1508 1.1328 1.1280 1.1238
GBP/USD 1.2763 1.2825 1.2871 1.2933 1.2717 1.2655 1.2609
USD/JPY 112.71

 

113.18 113.63 114.10

 

112.26 111.79 111.34

 

USD/INR 70.93 71.11 71.32   70.72 70.54

 

 

 

 

                                                                                                                                               

MAJOR SUPPORTS/RESISTANCES AND TREND TABLE

Curency Pair Supports Resistances Trend Remarks
EURO/USD 1.1215 1.1500/1.1620 DOWN SIDE>1.15
GBP/USD 1.2660 1.3175/1.33 DOWN UP>1.3050
USD/JPY 112.30/111/35 114.20 UP DN<111.35
USD/INR 69.10 70.35/71 SIDE UP>71
USD/CHF 0.9845 1.0130 UP  DN <0.9845

Technicals: Spot closed below 20,50 and 100 day movong averages but still above 200 day major moving average. 20 day moving average is at 71.40. 50 day moving average is at 72.55. 200 day moving average is at 68.60. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying bottom at 69.50 . Important support zone is at 69.50. Spot closed below its average level of the day.  

Intra day supports and resistances for DEC contract are:

PP: 71.06,S1:70.81, S2:70.59, R1:71.28, R2:71.53.                                                              

Hedging strategy for USD/INR: Hedging decisions be taken according to comfort and accounting rates.

CROSS CURRENCY TECHNICALS:

EURO/USD: The pair is below major moving averages. Next Major resistance is at 1.1500 and later at 1.1620. Major support is at 1.12. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying an important bottom at 1.1215. Weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.1805.

GBP/USD: The pair is below 200 day moving average.Trend is sideways in daily chart. Daily MACD  is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.3175 and weekly MACD is  in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.2665. Important resistance is at 1.3175 and later at 1.33. Important support is at 1.2660.

USD/YEN: The pair is above major moving averages. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 112.30. Next important support is at 112.30/111.35. Important resistance is at  114.20/114.40.

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