17/05/2018
USDINR opened at 68.13 Y’day and the pair traded in the 67.75-68.13 range. Spot USDINR closed at 67.79, loss of 30 ps for USD as against prior close of 68.09.RBI reference rate was fixed at 67.82. Rupee gained as RBI sold USD along with foreign banks. Rupee is down 7.5% since Jan this Year. May USD/INR closed at 67.88, loss of 33 ps for USD as compared to prior day’s close of 68.21. May Euro/INR closed at 80.05, GBP/INR at 91.60 and Yen/INR at 61.64.
FII’S sold Rs 1535 Cr of Indian Equities in May till date . FII’S also sold 6460 Cr of Indian debt securities in May . On a cumulative basis, FII’S have bought Rupees 6879 Cr of Indian Equities till date for this calendar year and have sold Rupees 20229 Cr of Indian debt in this calendar year till date.
Benchmark Nifty declined 0.6% y’day. DOW climbed 62 points (0.25%) y’day.Nikkei declined 0.44% and Hang seng declined 0.13% y’day.
Euro is now at 1.1830 , Pound at 1.3561,Yen at 110.14.
Commodities: Gold is now at USD 1292 and WT1Crude at USD 71.70.
Interest rates: USD 10 Yr yield is at 3.10% and 3 m libor closed at 2.36%. Indian 10 yr benchmark yield closed at 7.90%.
Economic news: Japanese GDP contracted -0.2% qoq in Q1, worse than expectation of 0.0% qoq. On annualized basis,GDP contracted -0.6% versus expectation of -0.1%. Euro declined on populist demands from Italian political parties on EU treaty. On the Geo political front, North korea threatened to walk away from discussion if US imposes any nuclear disarmament treaty on its own.
Data Highlights: – US building permits was reported at 1.35 mn, housing starts dipped to 1.29 mn. Industrial production climbed 0.7% m/m.
-EU Core CPI climbed 0.7% y/y.
Thursday’s calendar: – US weekly jobless claims and Phily Fed mfrg index.
| USD/INR | 68.13 | 67.75 | |
| EUR/USD | 1.1830 | 1.1939 | 1.1817 |
| GBP/USD | 1.3561 | 1.3551 | 1.3456 |
| USD/JPY | 110.14 | 110.41 | 110.04 |
Daily Support/Resistance table
| CurrencyPairs | Pivot | R1 | R2 | R3 | S1 | S2 | S3 |
| EURO/USD | 1.1811 | 1.1858 | 1.1901 | 1.1948 | 1.1768 | 1.1721 | 1.1678 |
| GBP/USD | 1.3518 | 1.3580 | 1.3613 | 1.3675 | 1.3485 | 1.3423 | 1.3390 |
| USD/JPY | 110.27
|
110.50 | 110.64 | 110.87
|
110.13 | 109.90 | 109.76
|
| USD/INR | 67.89 | 68.03 | 68.27 | 67.65 | 67.51 |
MAJOR SUPPORTS/RESISTANCES AND TREND TABLE
| Curency Pair | Supports | Resistances | Trend | Remarks |
| EURO/USD | 1.1710 | 1.2150/1.2210 | DN | UP>1.2210 |
| GBP/USD | 1.3460/1.33 | 1.3710/1.3965 | DN | UP>1.3965 |
| USD/JPY | 108/107 | 110 | UP | SIDE<108 |
| USD/INR | 67.47/67.10 | 68.13/68.80 | UP | SIDE<67.10 |
| USD/CHF | 0.9735/0.9575 | 1.0040 | UP | DN <0.9575 |
Technicals: Spot closed above 100 and 200 day major moving averages. 20 day moving is at 66.80. 50 day moving average is at 65.76. 200 day moving average is at 64.66. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying bottom at 64.85 . Important support zone is at 67.47 and later at 67.10. Important resistance is at 68.80. Spot closed below its average level of the day.
Intra day supports and resistances for May contract are:
PP: 68.01,S1:67.72, S2:67.56, R1:68.17, R2:68.46
Hedging strategy for USD/INR: Hedging decisions be taken according to comfort and accounting rates.
CROSS CURRENCY TECHNICALS:
EURO/USD: The pair is below all major moving averages. Next Major resistance is at 1.2150 and later at 1.2210. Major support is at 1.1710. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying an important top at 1.2415. Weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.2560.
GBP/USD: Trend is bearish in daily chart. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.4375 and weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.4375. The pair is trading below all major moving average. Important resistance is at 1.3710 and later at 1.3965. Important support is at 1.3460 and later at 1.33.
USD/YEN: The pair is below 200 day major moving average, but above 50 and 100 day moving averages. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 110.05. Important support is at 108. Important resistance is 110.
