FX – MORNING UPDATE :
USDINR opened at 83.03 y’day and the pair traded in the 83.03-83.16 range. Spot USDINR closed at 83.13, gain of 20 ps for USD as against prior close of 82.93.
RBI reference rate was fixed at 83.10 on 25/09. Sep USD/INR closed at 83.13, gain of 18 ps for USD as compared to prior day’s close of 82.95. Sep Euro/INR closed at 88.45, GBP/INR at 101.79 and Yen/INR at 55.97. 1 year USDINR fwd premia was trading at around 1.76% p.a. FX reserves stood at USD 593 bn as on Sept 15 th.
|
PAIRS |
RBI REF RATE (25/09) |
|
USDINR |
83.10 |
|
EURINR |
88.45 |
|
GBPINR |
101.70 |
|
JPYINR |
56.01 |
In Sep, FPI’S have sold Rs 11422 Cr of Equities and bought Rs 125 Cr of debt . In 2022-23 fiscal year, FII’S have net sold Rs 27593 Cr of Equities and have net bought Rs 838 Cr of debt.
Benchmark Nifty closed flat (0.00%) y’day. US S&P climbed 17 points (0.40%) . Nikkei climbed 0.95% and Hang Seng declined 1.97%.
Euro is now at 1.0586, Pound at 1.2208, Yen at 148.82.
Commodities: Gold is now at USD 1915 and WT1Crude at USD 89.60/Brent at USD 91.60.
Interest rates: USD 10 Yr yield is at 4.56% and 3 m libor closed at 5.65%. Indian 10 yr benchmark yield closed at 7.14%.
Economic news: Rupee declined on month end demand.
Germany’s Ifo Business Climate Index for September recorded a slight dip, moving from 85.8 to 85.7, though it outperformed expectation of 85.2.
US GDP and Core PCE index are important data events for the week.
Data highlights: – German Ifo survey dipped to 85.7.
Tuesday’s calendar : US new home sales and House price index
|
USD/INR |
|
83.16 |
83.03 |
|
|
EUR/USD |
1.0586 |
1.0655 |
1.0575 |
|
|
GBP/USD |
1.2208 |
1.2250 |
1.2194 |
|
|
USD/JPY |
148.82 |
148.99 |
148.29 |
Daily Support/Resistance table
|
Currency Pairs |
Pivot |
R1 |
R2 |
R3 |
S1 |
S2 |
S3 |
|
EURO/USD |
1.0607 |
1.0639 |
1.0687 |
1.0719 |
1.0559 |
1.0527 |
1.0478 |
|
GBP/USD |
1.2219 |
1.2244 |
1.2275 |
1.2300 |
1.2188 |
1.2163 |
1.2131 |
|
USD/JPY |
148.70 |
149.11 |
149.39 |
149.80 |
148.41 |
148.01 |
147.72 |
|
USD/INR |
83.10 |
83.18 |
83.23 |
|
83.04 |
82.97 |
|
MAJOR SUPPORTS/RESISTANCES AND TREND TABLE
|
Currency Pair |
Supports |
Resistances |
Trend |
Remarks |
|
EURO/USD |
1.05 |
1.0740 |
DN |
SIDE>1.0740 |
|
GBP/USD |
1.21 |
1.2550/1.2620 |
DN |
SIDE>1.2550 |
|
USD/JPY |
145.90 |
151 |
UP |
SIDE<145.90 |
|
USD/INR |
82.80 |
83.35/83.47 |
UP |
SIDE<82.78 |
|
USD/CHF |
0.8820 |
0.9150 |
UP |
SIDE<0.8820 |
Technicals: Spot closed above 50 and 200 day moving averages.20 day moving average is at 82.99. 50 day moving average is at 82.68.200 day moving average is at 82.37. Daily MACD is in buy zone. Important support is at 82.80 and important resistance is at 83.35. Spot closed above the average level of the day.
Intraday supports and resistances for Sep contract are:
PP: 83.10, S1:83.04, S2:82.97, R1:83.18, R2:83.23.
Hedging strategy: Hedging decisions be taken according to comfort and accounting rates.
However on directional basis, suggest the following:
USD exports be hedged at 83.30/83.50. Imports be hedged at 82.80/82.65 for 1 month.
CROSS CURRENCY TECHNICALS:
EURO/USD: The pair is below major moving averages. Major resistance is at 1.0740/1.0945. Next major support is at 1.05. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying an important top at 1.1275. Weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.1275.
GBP/USD: The pair is below 50 and 200 day averages. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.3145 and weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.3145. Important support is at 1.21. Important resistance is at 1.2550/1.2620.
USD/YEN: The pair is above 50 and 200 day major averages. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 144.40. Important resistance is at 151 and support is at 145.90/144.40.