FX – MORNING UPDATE :
USDINR opened at 83.20 y’day and the pair traded in the 83.19-83.27 range. Spot USDINR closed at 83.27, gain of 8 ps for USD as against prior close of 83.19.
RBI reference rate was fixed at 83.25 on 09/10. Oct USD/INR closed at 83.34, gain of 7 ps for USD as compared to prior day’s close of 83.27. Oct Euro/INR closed at 87.88, GBP/INR at 101.48 and Yen/INR at 56.11. 1 year USDINR fwd premia was trading at around 1.83% p.a. FX reserves declined by USD 3 bn and stood at USD 587 bn as on Sept 29 th.
|
PAIRS |
RBI REF RATE (09/10) |
|
USDINR |
83.25 |
|
EURINR |
87.79 |
|
GBPINR |
101.59 |
|
JPYINR |
55.81 |
In Oct, FPI’S have sold Rs 5132 Cr of Equities and bought Rs 1222 Cr of debt . In 2022-23 fiscal year, FII’S have net sold Rs 27593 Cr of Equities and have net bought Rs 838 Cr of debt.
Benchmark Nifty declined 141 points (0.72%) on Friday. US S&P climbed 27 points (0.63%) . Nikkei declined 0.87% and Hang Seng climbed 0.23%.
Euro is now at 1.0578, Pound at 1.2252, Yen at 148.36.
Commodities: Gold is now at USD 1864 and WT1Crude at USD 86/Brent at USD 88.
Interest rates: USD 10 Yr yield is at 4.64% and 3 m libor closed at 5.65%. Indian 10 yr benchmark yield closed at 7.33%.
Economic news: Oil gapped up higher. US 10 Year yield has moved in tandem with Oil price in last 3 months. Geo political risks arising out of Israel-Hamas conflict could trigger Oil price rise again as it may be used as a strategic tool by Oil producing nations. Higher Oil prices and higher US fiscal deficit could keep yields longer and will cap US Equities rally.
Fed member said theat the central bank would need to “proceed carefully” given the recent rise in yields. 10 Year yields declined and USD softened against majors.
Indian CPI, IIP and US CPI are key data events for the week.
Data highlights: – EU sentix investor confidence was reported at -21.9.
Tuesday’s calendar : UK’S BOE minutes
|
USD/INR |
|
83.27 |
83.19 |
|
|
EUR/USD |
1.0578 |
1.0580 |
1.0519 |
|
|
GBP/USD |
1.2252 |
1.2252 |
1.2163 |
|
|
USD/JPY |
148.36 |
149.23 |
148.39 |
Daily Support/Resistance table
|
Currency Pairs |
Pivot |
R1 |
R2 |
R3 |
S1 |
S2 |
S3 |
|
EURO/USD |
1.0559 |
1.0599 |
1.0620 |
1.0660 |
1.0538 |
1.0498 |
1.0477 |
|
GBP/USD |
1.2221 |
1.2281 |
1.2311 |
1.2370 |
1.2192 |
1.2133 |
1.2103 |
|
USD/JPY |
148.62 |
148.95 |
149.55 |
149.88 |
148.01 |
147.69 |
147.08 |
|
USD/INR |
83.24 |
83.29 |
83.32 |
|
83.21 |
83.16 |
|
MAJOR SUPPORTS/RESISTANCES AND TREND TABLE
|
Currency Pair |
Supports |
Resistances |
Trend |
Remarks |
|
EURO/USD |
1.0450/1.0250 |
1.0630/1.0740 |
DN |
SIDE>1.0740 |
|
GBP/USD |
1.2040/1.18 |
1.2275/1.2440/1.25 |
DN |
SIDE>1.2275 |
|
USD/JPY |
147.50/146.50 |
150 |
UP |
SIDE<146.50 |
|
USD/INR |
83.03/82.80 |
83.35/83.47 |
UP |
SIDE<82.78 |
|
USD/CHF |
0.9025/0.89 |
0.9250/0.9450 |
UP |
SIDE<0.89 |
Technicals: Spot closed above 50 and 200 day moving averages.20 day moving average is at 83.13. 50 day moving average is at 82.90.200 day moving average is at 82.42. Daily MACD is in sell zone. Important support is at 82.80 and important resistance is at 83.35. Spot closed above the average level of the day.
Intraday supports and resistances for Oct contract are:
PP: 83.32, S1:83.29, S2:83.24, R1:83.37, R2:83.40.
Hedging strategy: Hedging decisions be taken according to comfort and accounting rates.
However on directional basis, suggest the following:
USD exports be hedged at 83.30/83.50. Imports be hedged at 82.80/82.75 for 1 month.
CROSS CURRENCY TECHNICALS:
EURO/USD: The pair is below major moving averages. Major resistance is at 1.0740/1.0945. Next major support is at 1.0450/1.0250. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying an important bottom at 1.0450. Weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.1275.
GBP/USD: The pair is below 50 and 200 day averages. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.2035 and weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.3145. Important support is at 1.2035/1.18. Important resistance is at 1.2440/1.2495.
USD/YEN: The pair is above 50 and 200 day major averages. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 150.20. Important resistance is at 150.20 and support is at 147.50/146.50.