28/05/2018

USDINR opened at 68.23 on Friday and the pair traded in the 67.70-68.28 range. Spot USDINR closed at 67.77, loss of 56 ps for USD as against prior close of 68.34.RBI reference rate was fixed at 68.26. Rupee recovered as Crude Oil slipped over USD 2/bbl as reports emerged that Oil supply will be increased by OPEC and Russia. This is the single day’s biggest gain in the last few months. May USD/INR closed at 67.78, loss of 56 ps for USD as compared to prior day’s close of 68.34. May Euro/INR closed at 79.31, GBP/INR at 90.43 and Yen/INR at 61.93.

FII’S sold Rs 4739 Cr of Indian Equities in May till date . FII’S also sold 16046 Cr of Indian debt securities in May . On a cumulative basis, FII’S have bought Rupees 3675 Cr of Indian Equities till date for this calendar year and have sold  Rupees 29816 Cr of Indian debt in this calendar year till date.

Benchmark Nifty climbed 0.87% on Friday. DOW declined 58 points (0.24%) on Friday.Nikkei climbed 0.06%  and Hang seng declined 0.56% y’day.

Euro is now at 1.1650 , Pound at 1.3296,Yen at 109.38.   

Commodities: Gold is now at USD 1301 and WT1Crude at USD 67.48.

Interest rates: USD 10 Yr yield is at 2.93% and 3 m libor closed at 2.36%. Indian 10 yr benchmark yield closed at 7.79%.        

Economic news: WTI crude oil dropped below 70 handle on reports that Saudi Arabia and Russia are going to push for lifting production later in the year. The boost in production from OPEC and non-OPEC countries could add up to as high as 1 million barrels a day.

US President said that the proposed meeting with North Korean leader may still happen as North Korea made conciliatory statement.

Focus is on Indian GDP data for Q4 of last fiscal. Q4 growth could be between 7.1 and 7.5%.

Data Highlights: US Core  durables order climbed 0.9% m/m.

-German Ifo survey index improved to 102.2.

Monday’s calendar: – No major data.

Daily Support/Resistance table

MAJOR SUPPORTS/RESISTANCES AND TREND TABLE

Technicals: Spot closed above 100 and 200 day major moving averages. 20 day moving         is at 67.40. 50 day moving average is at 66.11. 200 day moving average is at 64.66. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying top at 68.42 . Important support zone is at 67.40/67.30 and later at 66.50. Important resistance is  at 68.42. Spot closed below its average level of the day.  

Intra day supports and resistances for May contract are:

PP: 67.91,S1:67.52, S2:67.27, R1:68.16, R2:68.55.

Hedging strategy for USD/INR: Hedging decisions be taken according to comfort and accounting rates.

CROSS CURRENCY TECHNICALS:

EURO/USD: The pair is below all major moving averages. Next Major resistance is at 1.1820 and later at 1.1960. Major support is at 1.1550. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying an important top at 1.2415. Weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.2560.

GBP/USD: Trend is bearish in daily chart. Daily MACD  is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.3618 and weekly MACD is  in sell zone, implying important top at 1.4375. The pair is trading below all major moving average. Important resistance is at 1.3450 and later at 1.3550. Important support is at 1.3040.        

USD/YEN: The pair is below 200 day major moving average, but above 50 and 100 day moving averages. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 111.40. Important support is at 108.60. Important resistance is  111.40 and later at 113.75.