24/05/2018
USDINR opened at 68.15 y”day and the pair traded in the 68.12-68.45 range. Spot USDINR closed at 68.42, gain of 38 ps for USD as against prior close of 68.04.RBI reference rate was fixed at 68.21. Rupee declined and RBI stepped in to sell USD at 68.29 early y’day. However, with no follow through sales, Rupee weakened again near the close of the day. Finance Ministry official expressed concern over Rupee. Govt is mulling relief for consumers from high Oil prices. Senior Minister said that Govt is taking a long term view on Oil price and will come with measures in coming days/weeks. May USD/INR closed at 68.45, gain of 37 ps for USD as compared to prior day’s close of 68.08. May Euro/INR closed at 80.19, GBP/INR at 91.21 and Yen/INR at 62.37.
FII’S sold Rs 2335 Cr of Indian Equities in May till date . FII’S also sold 10766 Cr of Indian debt securities in May . On a cumulative basis, FII’S have bought Rupees 6079 Cr of Indian Equities till date for this calendar year and have sold Rupees 24535 Cr of Indian debt in this calendar year till date.
Benchmark Nifty declined 1.01% y’day. DOW declined 178 points (0.72%) y’day.Nikkei declined 1.18% and Hang seng declined 1.82% y’day.
Euro is now at 1.1707 , Pound at 1.3365,Yen at 109.44.
Commodities: Gold is now at USD 1294 and WT1Crude at USD 71.66
Interest rates: USD 10 Yr yield is at 3.07% and 3 m libor closed at 2.36%. Indian 10 yr benchmark yield closed at 7.84%.
Economic news: Global yields fell on safe have purchases due to uncertainity over trade talks, Oil supply and North Korean dialogue. Yen climbed, Pound declined. UK inflation missed expectation and EU PMI dived to 18 month lows. Japanese PMI(mfrg) also missed expectation.
Data Highlights: – US new home sales declined to 662k.
-EU PMI(flash-mfrg) declined to 55.5, PMI(services-flash) declined to 53.9.
-UK CPI declined to 2.4% y/y, PPI(output) was flat at 0.3% m/m and RPI climbed 3.4% y/y.
Thursday’s calendar: -US Weekly jobless claims and existing home sales
-UK retail sales.
| USD/INR | 68.45 | 68.12 | |
| EUR/USD | 1.1707 | 1.1789 | 1.1676 |
| GBP/USD | 1.3365 | 1.3442 | 1.3306 |
| USD/JPY | 109.44 | 110.88 | 109.56 |
Daily Support/Resistance table
| CurrencyPairs | Pivot | R1 | R2 | R3 | S1 | S2 | S3 |
| EURO/USD | 1.1725 | 1.1774 | 1.1838 | 1.1887 | 1.1661 | 1.1612 | 1.1548 |
| GBP/USD | 1.3373 | 1.3440 | 1.3509 | 1.3576 | 1.3304 | 1.3237 | 1.3168 |
| USD/JPY | 110.11
|
110.66 | 111.43 | 111.98
|
109.34 | 108.79 | 108.02
|
| USD/INR | 68.34 | 68.54 | 68.64 | 68.23 | 68.04 |
MAJOR SUPPORTS/RESISTANCES AND TREND TABLE
| Curency Pair | Supports | Resistances | Trend | Remarks |
| EURO/USD | 1.1710 | 1.2150/1.2210 | DN | UP>1.2150 |
| GBP/USD | 1.3450/1.33 | 1.3710/1.3965 | DN | UP>1.3965 |
| USD/JPY | 108.60/107 | 111.50/113.75 | UP | SIDE<108.60 |
| USD/INR | 67.94 | 68.80 | UP | SIDE<67.94 |
| USD/CHF | 0.9735/0.9575 | 1.0040 | UP | DN <0.9575 |
Technicals: Spot closed above 100 and 200 day major moving averages. 20 day moving is at 67.33. 50 day moving average is at 66.06. 200 day moving average is at 64.66. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying bottom at 64.85 . Important support zone is at 67.94 and later at 67.47. Important resistance is at 68.80. Spot closed above its average level of the day.
Intra day supports and resistances for May contract are:
PP: 68.37,S1:68.25, S2:68.06, R1:68.56, R2:68.68.
Hedging strategy for USD/INR: Hedging decisions be taken according to comfort and accounting rates.
CROSS CURRENCY TECHNICALS:
EURO/USD: The pair is below all major moving averages. Next Major resistance is at 1.2150 and later at 1.2210. Major support is at 1.1710. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying an important top at 1.2415. Weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.2560.
GBP/USD: Trend is bearish in daily chart. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.3450 and weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.4375. The pair is trading below all major moving average. Important resistance is at 1.3710 and later at 1.3965. Important support is at 1.3450 and later at 1.33.
USD/YEN: The pair is above 200 day major moving average, but above 50 and 100 day moving averages. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 108.64. Important support is at 108.64. Important resistance is 111.50 and later at 113.75.
