USDINR opened at 67.33 y’day and the pair traded in the 67.22-67.43 range. Spot USDINR closed at 67.30, gain of 4 ps for USD as against prior close of 67.26.RBI reference rate was fixed at 67.38.  This is the third consecutive day of close lower than open. May USD/INR closed at 67.44, gain of 2 ps for USD as compared to prior day’s close of 67.42. May Euro/INR closed at 80.23, GBP/INR at 91.20 and Yen/INR at 61.50.

FII’S sold Rs 6467 Cr of Indian Equities in April . FII’S also sold 11868 Cr of Indian debt securities in April . On a cumulative basis, FII’S have bought Rupees 7979 Cr of Indian Equities till date for this calendar year and have sold  Rupees 15023 Cr of Indian debt in this calendar year till date.

Benchmark Nifty declined 0.23% y’day. DOW climbed 182 points (0.75%) Y’day.Nikkei climbed 0.39%  and Hang seng climbed 0.89% y’day.

Euro is now at 1.1915 , Pound at 1.3526,Yen at 109.47    

Commodities: Gold is now at USD 1320 and WT1Crude at USD 71.27.

Interest rates: USD 10 Yr yield is at 3.00% and 3 m libor closed at 2.36%. Indian 10 yr benchmark yield closed at 7.71%.        

Economic news: BOE left rates and asset purchases unchanged at 0.5% and GBP 435 bn. Growth was revised lower to 1.4% for 2018 from earlier estimate of 1.8%. Inflation forecast was revised lower to 2.4% from 2.7%. BOE minutes suggested that, “although business investment is still restrained by Brexit-related uncertainties, it is being supported, like exports, by strong global demand and accommodative financial conditions. Household consumption growth remains subdued, in line with the modest growth in real income over the forecast period”.



Data Highlights: – US Weekly jobless claims declined to 211k and CPI climbed 0.2% m/m, lower than expected.


-UK industrial production climbed 0.1% m/m and manufacturing production declined -0.1% m/m.


Friday’s calendar: – No major releases.

USD/INR   67.43 67.22
EUR/USD 1.1915 1.1946 1.1845
GBP/USD 1.3526 1.3618 1.3460
USD/JPY 109.47 110 109.33

Daily Support/Resistance table

CurrencyPairs Pivot R1 R2 R3 S1 S2 S3
EURO/USD 1.1902 1.1959 1.2003 1.2060 1.1858 1.1801 1.1757
GBP/USD 1.3533 1.3606 1.3691 1.3764 1.3448 1.3375 1.3290
USD/JPY 109.59


109.85 110.26 110.52


109.18 108.92 108.51


USD/INR 67.31 67.41 67.53   67.19 67.09  


Curency Pair Supports Resistances Trend Remarks
EURO/USD 1.1910/1.1710 1.2150/1.2210 DN UP>1.2210
GBP/USD 1.3460/1.33 1.3710/1.3965 DN UP>1.3965
USD/JPY 108/107 110 UP SIDE<108
USD/INR 66.94/66.50 67.45 UP SIDE<66.94
USD/CHF 0.9735/0.9575 1.0040 UP  DN <0.9575

Technicals: Spot closed above 100 and 200 day major moving averages. 20 day moving         is at 66.33. 50 day moving average is at 65.48. 200 day moving average is at 64.58. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying bottom at 64.85 . Important support zone is at 66.94 and later at 66.50. Important resistance is  at 67.45. Spot closed below its average level of the day.  

Intra day supports and resistances for May contract are:

PP: 67.45,S1:67.33, S2:67.22, R1:67.56, R2:67.68

Hedging strategy for USD/INR: Hedging decisions be taken according to comfort and accounting rates.


EURO/USD: The pair is below all major moving averages. Next Major resistance is at 1.2150 and later at 1.2210. Major support is at 1.1910 and later at 1.1710. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying an important top at 1.2415. Weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.2560.

GBP/USD: Trend is bearish in daily chart. Daily MACD  is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.4375 and weekly MACD is  in sell zone, implying important top at 1.4375. The pair is trading below all major moving average. Important resistance is at 1.3710 and later at 1.3965. Important support is at 1.3460 and later at 1.33.   

USD/YEN: The pair is below 200 day major moving average, but above 50 and 100 day moving averages. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 104.56. Important support is at 108. Important resistance is  110.

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