30/04/2018
USDINR opened at 66.78 on Friday and the pair traded in the 66.66-66.83 range. Spot USDINR closed at 66.66, loss of 9 ps for USD as against prior close of 66.75.RBI reference rate was fixed at 66.78. May USD/INR closed at 66.87, loss of 7 ps for USD as compared to prior day’s close of 66.94. May Euro/INR closed at 80.99, GBP/INR at 92.25 and Yen/INR at 61.25.
FII’S have sold Rs 5552 Cr of Indian Equities in April till date . FII’S have sold 10035 Cr of Indian debt securities in April . On a cumulative basis, FII’S have bought Rupees 9331 Cr of Indian Equities till date for this calendar year and have sold Rupees 11937 Cr of Indian debt in this calendar year till date.
Benchmark Nifty climbed 0.70% on Friday. DOW declined 11 points (0.05%) on Friday.Nikkei climbed 0.66% and Hang seng climbed 0.91% y’day.
Euro closed the week at 1.2131, Pound at 1.3780,Yen at 109.05.
Commodities: Gold is now at USD 1324 and WT1Crude at USD 68.02.
Interest rates: USD 10 Yr yield is at 2.96% and 3 m libor closed at 2.36%. Indian 10 yr benchmark yield closed at 7.77%.
Economic news: US GDP grew 2.3% annualized in Q1. While that was a slowdown from 2.9% growth in Q4, it beat expectation of 2.0%.Price index rose 2.0%, below expectation of 2.2%. Employment cost index rose 0.8%, above expectation of 0.7%.
Sterling declined as UK Q1 GDP grew merely 0.1% qoq much worse than expectation of 0.3% qoq and prior quarter’s 0.4% qoq. Also, that’s the weakest quarterly growth figure in five years.
BoJ revised up fiscal 2018 real GDP growth forecast to 1.6%, up from 1.4%. Fiscal 2019 GDP growth was also raised to 0.8%, up from 0.7%. On the other hand, Fiscal 2018 core CPI forecast was lowered to 1.3%, down from 1.4%. Fiscal 2019 core CPI, ex-sales tax hike, was kept unchanged at 1.8%.
Data Highlights: – -Japanese unemployment rate was unchanged at 2.5% y/y, industrial production rose 1.2% m/m, retail sales climbed 1% y/y and housing starts.
Monday’s calendar: – US personal income, spending, pending home sales and Chicago PMI
-German retail sales
| USD/INR | 66.94 | 66.70 | |
| EUR/USD | 1.2131 | 1.2133 | 1.2056 |
| GBP/USD | 1.3780 | 1.3934 | 1.3748 |
| USD/JPY | 109.05 | 109.54 | 108.98 |
Daily Support/Resistance table
| CurrencyPairs | Pivot | R1 | R2 | R3 | S1 | S2 | S3 |
| EURO/USD | 1.2106 | 1.2157 | 1.2183 | 1.2079 | 1.2029 | ||
| GBP/USD | 1.3820 | 1.3893 | 1.4006 | 1.3706 | 1.3634 | ||
| USD/JPY | 109.19
|
109.40 | 109.75 |
|
108.84 | 108.63 |
|
| USD/INR | 66.71 | 66.77 | 66.89 | 66.59 | 66.53 |
MAJOR SUPPORTS/RESISTANCES AND TREND TABLE
| Curency Pair | Supports | Resistances | Trend | Remarks |
| EURO/USD | 1.2010/1.1950 | 1.2150/1.2210 | SIDE | UP>1.2210,\DN<1.20 |
| GBP/USD | 1.3710/1.3550 | 1.3965 | UP | DN<1.3550 |
| USD/JPY | 108 | 110.40 | Side | DN<108 |
| USD/INR | 66.45/66.25/66.05 | 66.94/67.40 | UP | SIDE<66.05 |
| USD/CHF | 0.9735/0.9575 | 0.9980 | UP | DN <0.9575 |
Technicals: Spot closed above 100 and 200 day major moving averages. 20 day moving is at 65.64. 50 day moving average is at 65.17. 200 day moving average is at 64.58. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying bottom at 64.85 . Important support zone is at 66.25 and later at 66.05/65.90. Important resistance is at 67.40. Spot closed below its average level of the day.
Intra day supports and resistances for May contract are:
PP: 66.89,S1:66.73, S2:66.60, R1:67.02, R2:67.18
Hedging strategy for USD/INR: Hedging decisions be taken according to comfort and accounting rates.
CROSS CURRENCY TECHNICALS:
EURO/USD: The pair is above 200 day major moving average, but below 20 and 50 day moving averages. Next Major resistance is at 1.2150 and later at 1.2210. Major support is at 1.20/1.1950. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying an important top at 1.2415. Weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.2560.
GBP/USD: Trend is sideways in daily chart. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.4375 and weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.4375. The pair is trading above 200 day major moving average. Important resistance is at 1.3965. Important support is at 1.3710 and later at 1.3550.
USD/YEN: The pair is below 200 day major moving average, but above 50 and 100 day moving averages. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 104.56. Important support is at 108. Important resistance is 110.40.
