FX – MORNING UPDATE :
USDINR opened at 83.51 on Tuesday and the pair traded in the 83.47-83.62 range. Spot USDINR closed at 83.61, gain of 19 ps for USD as against prior close of 83.42.
RBI reference rate was fixed at 83.50 on 16/04. Apr USD/INR closed at 83.61, gain of 15 ps for USD as compared to prior day’s close of 83.46. Apr Euro/INR closed at 89.02, GBP/INR at 104.15 and Yen/INR at 54.12. 1 year USDINR fwd premia was trading at around 1.59% p.a. FX reserves stood at USD 648 bn, as on April 5 th. Reserves increased by USD 2.5 bn w/w.
|
PAIRS |
RBI REF RATE (16/04) |
|
USDINR |
83.50 |
|
EURINR |
88.56 |
|
GBPINR |
103.67 |
|
JPYINR |
54.04 |
In April, FPI’S have bought Rs 10992 Cr of Equities and sold Rs 3201 Cr of debt . In FY 23-24, FII’S have net bought Rs 206279 Cr of Equities and have net bought Rs 123120 Cr of debt.
Benchmark Nifty declined 125 points (0.56%) on Tuesday. US S&P declined 29 points (0.58%) y’day. Nikkei declined 1.22% and Hang Seng closed flat y’day.
Euro is now at 1.0678, Pound at 1.2470, Yen at 154.25.
Commodities: Gold is now at USD 2374 and WT1Crude at USD 83/Brent at USD 87.50.
Interest rates: USD 10 Yr yield is at 4.59% and 3 m libor closed at 5.59%. Indian 10 yr benchmark yield closed at 7.18%.
Economic news: Rupee declined to 83.61 after stagnating at around 83.45 for a significant period of time. USD’S strength against majors is likely to weigh down on Rupee, but decline will be controlled by RBI.
Eurozone CPI was finalized at 2.4% yoy in March, down from February’s 2.6% yoy. CPI core was finalized at 2.9% yoy, down from prior month’s 3.1% yoy. UK CPI slowed from 3.4% yoy to 3.2% yoy in March, above expectation of 3.1% yoy. CPI core decelerated from 4.5% yoy to 4.2% yoy, above expectation of 4.1% yoy.
Data highlights: — US building permits declined to 1.46 mn, housing starts declined to 1.32 mn and industrial production climbed 0.4% m/m.
-EU and German Zew surveys climbed to 43.9 and 42.9 respectively.
-EU CPI Climbed 2.4% Y/Y.
-UK unemployment rate increased to 4.2% and claimant count change declined to 10.2 k
-UK CPI climbed 3.2% y/y, RPI was up 4.3% y/y and PPI(output) climbed 0.2% m/m.
Thursday’s calendar : -US weekly jobless claims and existing home sales
|
USD/INR |
|
83.62 |
83.47 |
|
|
EUR/USD |
1.0678 |
1.0680 |
1.0605 |
|
|
GBP/USD |
1.2470 |
1.2483 |
1.2416 |
|
|
USD/JPY |
154.25 |
154.76 |
154.16 |
Daily Support/Resistance table
|
Currency Pairs |
Pivot |
R1 |
R2 |
R3 |
S1 |
S2 |
S3 |
|
EURO/USD |
1.0652 |
1.0699 |
1.0726 |
1.0773 |
1.0624 |
1.0578 |
1.0550 |
|
GBP/USD |
1.2448 |
1.2480 |
1.2515 |
1.2547 |
1.2413 |
1.2380 |
1.2346 |
|
USD/JPY |
154.44 |
154.72 |
155.04 |
155.32 |
154.12 |
153.84 |
153.51 |
|
USD/INR |
83.57 |
83.66 |
83.72 |
|
83.52 |
83.42 |
|
MAJOR SUPPORTS/RESISTANCES AND TREND TABLE
|
Currency Pair |
Supports |
Resistances |
Trend |
Remarks |
|
EURO/USD |
1.0520/1.0450 |
1.0725/1.0885 |
DN |
UP>1.0885 |
|
GBP/USD |
1.2430/1.2330 |
1.2535/1.2720 |
DN |
UP>1.2720 |
|
USD/JPY |
152/150.80 |
154.50 |
UP |
SIDE<150.80 |
|
USD/INR |
83.47/83.26/83.17 |
83.70 |
UP |
SIDE<83.17 |
|
USD/CHF |
0.90 |
0.9230 |
UP |
SIDE<0.90 |
Technicals: Spot closed above major moving averages.20 day moving average is at 83.25. 50 day moving average is at 83.07. 200 day moving average is at 82.94. Daily MACD is in buy zone. Important support is at 83.47/83.26/83.17 and important resistance is at 83.70. Spot closed above the average level of the day.
Intraday supports and resistances for April contract are:
PP: 83.57, S1:83.50, S2:83.40, R1:83.67, R2:83.74.
Hedging strategy: Hedging decisions be taken according to comfort and accounting rates.
However on directional basis, suggest the following:
USD imports be hedged on decline to 83.27/83.16.
CROSS CURRENCY TECHNICALS:
EURO/USD: The pair is below major moving averages. Major resistance is at 1.0725/1.0885. Next major support is at 1.0520/1.0450. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying an important top at 1.0885. Weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.1140.
GBP/USD: The pair is below major moving averages. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.2710 and weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.2895. Important support is at 1.2430/1.2340. Important resistance is at 1.2535/1.2720.
USD/YEN: The pair is above major moving averages. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 150.80. Important resistance is at 154.50 and support is at 152/150.80.
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