USDINR opened at 71.14 on Thursday and the pair traded in the 70.67-71.19 range. Spot USDINR closed at 70.67, loss of 79 ps for USD as against prior close of 71.46. FX market was closed on Friday. RBI reference rate was fixed at 71.17. Rupee continued its strength since its lows of 74.45 on Oct 12 th. FII inflows in Nov and declining Crude prices have contributed to Rupee strength. Nov USD/INR closed at 70.69, loss of 79 ps for USD as compared to prior day’s close of 71.48. Nov Euro/INR closed at 80.70, GBP/INR at 91 and Yen/INR at 62.59.

FII’S have invested Rs 9578 Cr in Indian Equities in Nov till date . FII’S have bought Rs 2191 Cr of Indian debt securities in Nov till date . On a cumulative basis, FII’S have sold Rupees 27666 Cr of Indian Equities till date for this calendar year and have sold  Rupees 57128 Cr of Indian debt in this calendar year till date.

Benchmark Nifty declined 0.69% on Thursday. DOW declined 178 points (0.73%). Nikkei climbed 0.65% and Hang seng index declined 0.35% on Friday.

Euro closed the week at 1.1336, Pound at 1.2813,Yen at 112.97.

Commodities: Gold is now at USD 1227 and WT1Crude at USD 50.45/Brent at USD 59.30.

Interest rates: USD 10 Yr yield is at 3.05% and 3 m libor closed at 2.39%. Indian 10 yr benchmark yield closed at 7.71%.        

Economic news: Crude Oil price crashed 6% in thin trading session on Thanksgiving day. Brent Crude is struggling to hold to USD 60. There are reports that US President will successfully prevent OPEC supply cut. He has used Saudi’s discomfiture in a political episode to his advantage. Focus will be on G-20 meeting and trade talks between US and Chinese heads of state.

ECB minutes acknowledged that “recent data and survey results had been generally somewhat weaker than expected”.                                                                 

However, the minutes also noted that incoming data were “still considered consistent with an ongoing broad-based expansion of the euro area economy” as embodied in September staff projections. On external risks ECB policymakers “considered that the uncertainties related to global factors remained prominent, and the risks related to the external environment were assessed to be tilted to the downside.” Risks include “rising protectionism, vulnerabilities in emerging markets and financial market volatility.”                          

Data highlights :- EU PMI(mfrg) dipped to 51.5 and PMI(services) declined to 53.1.

Monday’s calendar:- German Ifo survey

Daily Support/Resistance table

MAJOR SUPPORTS/RESISTANCES AND TREND TABLE

Technicals: Spot closed above 100 and 200 day major moving averages. 20 day moving         is at 72.72. 50 day moving average is at 72.87. 200 day moving average is at 68.41. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying top at 74.47 . Important support zone is at 69.80. Spot closed below its average level of the day.  

Intra day supports and resistances for Nov contract are:

PP: 70.86,S1:70.50, S2:70.31, R1:71.05, R2:71.41.                                                              

Hedging strategy for USD/INR: Hedging decisions be taken according to comfort and accounting rates.

CROSS CURRENCY TECHNICALS:

EURO/USD: The pair is below major moving averages. Next Major resistance is at 1.1500 and later at 1.1620. Major support is at 1.12. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying an important bottom at 1.1215. Weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.1805.

GBP/USD: The pair is below 200 day moving average.Trend is sideways in daily chart. Daily MACD  is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.3175 and weekly MACD is  in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.2665. Important resistance is at 1.3175 and later at 1.33. Important support is at 1.2660.

USD/YEN: The pair is above major moving averages. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 114.20. Next important support is at 112.30/111.35. Important resistance is at  114.20/114.40