FX – MORNING UPDATE :

USDINR opened at 83.36 Y’day and the pair traded in the 83.34-83.44 range. Spot USDINR closed at 83.41, gain of 3  ps for USD as against prior close of 83.38.

RBI reference rate was fixed at 83.36 on 02/04. Apr USD/INR closed at 83.47, gain of 3 ps for USD as compared to prior day’s close of 83.44. Apr Euro/INR closed at 89.82, GBP/INR at 104.94 and Yen/INR at 55.31. 1 year USDINR fwd premia was trading at around 1.57% p.a.  FX reserves stood at USD 642.36 bn, as on March 22 nd.

In March, FPI’S bought Rs 32927 Cr of Equities and bought Rs 13818 Cr of debt . In FY 23-24, FII’S have net bought Rs 206279 Cr of Equities and have net bought Rs 123120 Cr of debt.

Benchmark Nifty closed flat (0%) y’day. US S&P declined 38 points (0.72%) y’day. Nikkei climbed 0.06% and Hang Seng climbed 2.36% y’day.

Euro is now at 1.0770, Pound at 1.2571, Yen at 151.59.

Commodities: Gold is now at USD 2278 and WT1Crude at USD 85/Brent at USD 89.

Interest rates: USD 10 Yr yield is at 4.35% and 3 m libor closed at 5.59%. Indian 10 yr benchmark yield closed at 7.11%.

Economic news: March GST collections climbed 11.6% to 1.78 lac Cr.

Global yields surged on strong manufacturing data. US ISM and UK PMI entered into expansion mode. Crude prices also climbed higher on the back of string economic data. Better than expected economic data could delay rate cuts.

US nonfarm payrolls is the important event for the week.

Data highlights: – US ISM(mfrg) climbed to 50.3 and construction spending declined -0.3% m/m.

-US factory orders climbed 1.4% m/m.

-EU PMI(mfrg) climbed to 46.1.

-UK PMI(mfrg) climbed to 50.3.

Wednesday’s calendar : – US ADP employment report

-EU CPI

 Daily Support/Resistance table

MAJOR SUPPORTS/RESISTANCES AND TREND TABLE

Technicals: Spot closed above major moving averages.20 day moving average is at 83.02. 50 day moving average is at 83.02. 200 day moving average is at 82.91. Daily MACD is in buy zone. Important support is at 83.27/83.20 and important resistance is at 83.47/83.70. Spot closed above the average level of the day.

Intraday supports and resistances for April contract are:

PP: 83.45, S1:83.40, S2:83.34, R1:83.51, R2:83.56.             

Hedging strategy: Hedging decisions be taken according to comfort and accounting rates.

However on directional basis, suggest the following:

USD imports be hedged on decline to 83.27.

CROSS CURRENCY TECHNICALS:

EURO/USD: The pair is below major moving averages. Major resistance is at 1.09/1.10. Next major support is at 1.07. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying an important support at 1.07. Weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.1140.

GBP/USD: The pair is between major moving averages. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.29 and weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.2895. Important support is at 1.2575. Important resistance is at 1.28/1.29.

USD/YEN: The pair is above major moving averages. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 146.50. Important resistance is at 152.50 and support is at 149/146.50.

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