16/10/2018
USDINR opened higher at 73.80 y’day and the pair traded in the 73.78-74.07 range. Spot USDINR closed at 73.83, gain of 27 ps ps for USD as against prior close of 73.56.RBI reference rate was fixed at 73.97. Rupee wobbled and recovered toward close as trade deficit declined to 5 month lows. Oct USD/INR closed at 73.93, gain of 23 ps for USD as compared to prior day’s close of 73.70. Oct Euro/INR closed at 85.78, GBP/INR at 97.42 and Yen/INR at 66.16.
FII’S have sold Rs 11236 Cr of Indian Equities in Oct till date . FII’S have sold Rs 7976 Cr of Indian debt securities in Oct till date . On a cumulative basis, FII’S have sold Rupees 25858 Cr of Indian Equities till date for this calendar year and have sold Rupees 57277 Cr of Indian debt in this calendar year till date.
Benchmark Nifty climbed 0.38% y’day. DOW climbed 287 points (1.15%) on Friday. Nikkei declined 1.87% and Hang seng climbed 0.06% y’day.
Euro is now at 1.1574, Pound at 1.3144,Yen at 111.95.
Commodities: Gold is now at USD 1229 and WT1Crude at USD 71.84.
Interest rates: USD 10 Yr yield is at 3.14% and 3 m libor closed at 2.39%. Indian 10 yr benchmark yield closed at 7.98%.
Economic news: Indian trade deficit narrowed to 5 month low of USD 13.98 bn. Exports declined 2.5% y/y to USD 27.95 bn and imports expanded 10.45% in Sept to USD 41.9 bn. Imports has climbed 16.6% in Apr-Sept period over last year.
Trade Data highlights: Crude imports climbed 33.6% to USD 10.9 bn in September
-Gold imports surged 51.4% to USD 5.69 bn.
-Electronic items climbed 11.4% to USD 5.7 bn.
Data Highlights: – US retail sales climbed less than expected by 0.1% m/m and NY mfrg index climbed to 21.1.
Tuesday’s calendar:- US industrial production and TIC purchases
-EU Zew and German Zew surveys
-UK claimant count change and unemployment rate
| USD/INR | 74.07 | 73.78 | |
| EUR/USD | 1.1574 | 1.1606 | 1.1543 |
| GBP/USD | 1.3144 | 1.3182 | 1.3102 |
| USD/JPY | 111.95 | 112.21 | 111.62 |
Daily Support/Resistance table
| CurrencyPairs | Pivot | R1 | R2 | R3 | S1 | S2 | S3 |
| EURO/USD | 1.1577 | 1.1611 | 1.1640 | 1.1674 | 1.1548 | 1.1514 | 1.1485 |
| GBP/USD | 1.3146 | 1.3190 | 1.3226 | 1.3270 | 1.3110 | 1.3066 | 1.3030 |
| USD/JPY | 111.89
|
112.16 | 112.48 | 111.75
|
111.57 | 111.30 | 110.98
|
| USD/INR | 73.89 | 74 | 74.18 | 73.71 | 73.60 |
MAJOR SUPPORTS/RESISTANCES AND TREND TABLE
| Curency Pair | Supports | Resistances | Trend | Remarks |
| EURO/USD | 1.13 | 1.1820 | DOWN | UP>1.1830 |
| GBP/USD | 1.2925/1.2785 | 1.33 | SIDE | DN<1.2785 |
| USD/JPY | 111.85/110.50 | 114.70 | UP | SIDE<111.85 |
| USD/INR | 73.40/72.95 | 74.50 | UP | SIDE<72.90 |
| USD/CHF | 0.9770/0.9450 | 1.0070 | UP | DN <0.9730 |
Technicals: Spot closed above 100 and 200 day major moving averages. 20 day moving is at 73.13. 50 day moving average is at 71.34. 200 day moving average is at 67.30. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying bottom at 68.30 . Important support zone is at 73.40/72.90. Spot closed below its average level of the day.
Intra day supports and resistances for Oct contract are:
PP: 73.99,S1:73.77, S2:73.62, R1:74.15, R2:74.36.
Hedging strategy for USD/INR: Hedging decisions be taken according to comfort and accounting rates.
CROSS CURRENCY TECHNICALS:
EURO/USD: The pair is below major moving averages. Next Major resistance is at 1.1820 and later at 1.1960. Major support is at 1.13. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying an important top at 1.1820. Weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.2560.
GBP/USD: Trend is sideways in daily chart. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.2925 and weekly MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.2665. The pair is trading below 200 day moving average. Important resistance is at 1.33 and later at 1.35. Important support is at 1.2925 and later at 1.2785.
USD/YEN: The pair is above major moving averages. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 114.56. Next important support is at 111.85/110.55. Important resistance is at 114.60.
