05/10/2018
USDINR opened higher at 73.59 y’day and the pair traded in the 73.50-73.80 range. Spot USDINR closed at 73.57, gain of 23 ps ps for USD as against prior close of 73.34.RBI reference rate was fixed at 73.75. Rupee sunk further as Crude prices climbed to 4 year highs and US Yields rallied steeply. USD’S rally against EM Currencies also contributed to Rupee weakness. Oct USD/INR closed at 73.74, gain of 14 ps for USD as compared to prior day’s close of 73.60. Oct Euro/INR closed at 85, GBP/INR at 95.89 and Yen/INR at 64.63.
FII’S sold Rs 7924 Cr of Indian Equities in Sept . FII’S sold Rs 9858 Cr of Indian debt securities in Sept . On a cumulative basis, FII’S have sold Rupees 7923 Cr of Indian Equities till date for this calendar year and have sold Rupees 48631 Cr of Indian debt in this calendar year till date.
Benchmark Nifty declined 2.39% y’day. DOW declined 200 points (0.75%) Y’day. Nikkei declined 0.56% and Hang seng declined 1.73% y’day.
Euro is now at 1.1507, Pound at 1.3016,Yen at 113.93.
Commodities: Gold is now at USD 1202 and WT1Crude at USD 74.70.
Interest rates: USD 10 Yr yield is at 3.29% and 3 m libor closed at 2.39%. Indian 10 yr benchmark yield closed at 8.16%.
Economic news: Govt announced cut in duty of Petro products by Rs 1.50 and Oil marketing companies will bear Rs 1 burden. Consumers will get a minimum relief of Rs 2.50. Central Govt has requested state govts to offer relief in VAT. RBI policy announcement is expected today afternoon. The meeting assumes significance against the backdrop of IL&FS fiasco and steep depreciation of Rupee.
Data Highlights: – US weekly jobless claims declined to 207k and factory orders climbed 2.3% m/m.
Friday’s calendar:- US nonfarm payrolls and trade balance
| USD/INR | 73.80 | 73.50 | |
| EUR/USD | 1.1507 | 1.1542 | 1.1463 |
| GBP/USD | 1.3016 | 1.3039 | 1.2923 |
| USD/JPY | 113.93 | 114.53 | 113.64 |
Daily Support/Resistance table
| CurrencyPairs | Pivot | R1 | R2 | R3 | S1 | S2 | S3 |
| EURO/USD | 1.1507 | 1.1551 | 1.1586 | 1.1630 | 1.1472 | 1.1428 | 1.1393 |
| GBP/USD | 1.2995 | 1.3067 | 1.3111 | 1.3183 | 1.2951 | 1.2879 | 1.2835 |
| USD/JPY | 114.02
|
114.40 | 114.91 | 115.29
|
113.51 | 113.13 | 112.62
|
| USD/INR | 73.62 | 73.75 | 73.92 | 73.44 | 73.32 |
MAJOR SUPPORTS/RESISTANCES AND TREND TABLE
| Curency Pair | Supports | Resistances | Trend | Remarks |
| EURO/USD | 1.1525/1.13 | 1.1820 | SIDE | DN<1.1525 |
| GBP/USD | 1.3045/1.2990 | 1.33 | SIDE | DN<1.2990 |
| USD/JPY | 111.85/109.70 | 114.70 | UP | DN<109.70 |
| USD/INR | 71.50/70.70 | 72.95 | UP | SIDE<71.50 |
| USD/CHF | 0.9640/0.9540 | 0.9870/1.0070 | UP | DN <0.9540 |
Technicals: Spot closed above 100 and 200 day major moving averages. 20 day moving is at 72.45. 50 day moving average is at 70.61. 200 day moving average is at 66.89. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying bottom at 68.30 . Important support zone is at 72.90/72.40. Spot closed below its average level of the day.
Intra day supports and resistances for Oct contract are:
PP: 73.81,S1:73.59, S2:73.45, R1:73.95, R2:74.17.
Hedging strategy for USD/INR: Hedging decisions be taken according to comfort and accounting rates.
CROSS CURRENCY TECHNICALS:
EURO/USD: The pair is below major moving averages. Next Major resistance is at 1.1820 and later at 1.1960. Major support is at 1.1525 and later at 1.13. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying an important top at 1.1820. Weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.2560.
GBP/USD: Trend is sideways in daily chart. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.33 and weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.4375. The pair is trading below 200 day moving average. Important resistance is at 1.33 and later at 1.3560. Important support is at 1.3010/1.2960 and later at 1.2785.
USD/YEN: The pair is above major moving averages. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 109.70. Next important support is at 111.85/109.70. Important resistance is at 114.70.
