24/04/2018
USDINR opened gap up at 66.22 Y’day and the pair traded in the 66.14-66.48 range. USDINR closed at 66.47, gain of 35 ps for USD as against prior close of 66.12.RBI reference rate was fixed at 66.22. April USD/INR closed at 66.48, gain of 35 ps for USD as compared to prior day’s close of 66.13. April Euro/INR closed at 81.33, GBP/INR at 92.73 and Yen/INR at 61.41.
Rupee continued to weaken as bearish sentiment was unabated. There were only buying bids in all nationalised banks. RBI did not intervene.
FII’S have sold Rs 4181 Cr of Indian Equities in April till date . FII’S have sold 3586 Cr of Indian debt securities in April . On a cumulative basis, FII’S have bought Rupees 10702 Cr of Indian Equities till date for this calendar year and have sold Rupees 5487 Cr of Indian debt in this calendar year till date.
Benchmark Nifty climbed 0.2% y’day. DOW declined 201 points (0.82%) on Friday.Nikkei declined 0.33% and Hang seng declined 0.54% y’day.
Euro is now at 1.2288, Pound at 1.4002,Yen at 107.66.
Commodities: Gold is now at USD 1337 and WT1Crude at USD 68.28.
Interest rates: USD 10 Yr yield is at 2.95% and 3 m libor closed at 2.29%. Indian 10 yr benchmark yield closed at 7.74%.
Economic news: USD rallied against majors as US 10 Year Yields is close to 3%. Euro decline could be attributed to downward growth shift in manufacturing activity since the beginning of this calendar year.
Data Highlights: – US existing home sales
-EU PMI(mfrg-flash) dipped to 56 and PMI(services- flash) climbed to 55.
Tuesday’s calendar: – -US new home sales, house price index and consumer confidence.
-German Ifo survey.
| USD/INR | 66.48 | 66.14 | |
| EUR/USD | 1.2288 | 1.2353 | 1.2250 |
| GBP/USD | 1.4002 | 1.4087 | 1.4000 |
| USD/JPY | 107.66 | 107.86 | 107.40 |
Daily Support/Resistance table
| CurrencyPairs | Pivot | R1 | R2 | R3 | S1 | S2 | S3 |
| EURO/USD | 1.2297 | 1.2344 | 1.2400 | 1.2241 | 1.2194 | ||
| GBP/USD | 1.4029 | 1.4059 | 1.4116 | 1.3971 | 1.3942 | ||
| USD/JPY | 107.64
|
107.88 | 108.10 |
|
107.42 | 107.18 |
|
| USD/INR | 66.36 | 66.59 | 66.70 | 66.24 | 66.02 |
MAJOR SUPPORTS/RESISTANCES AND TREND TABLE
| Curency Pair | Supports | Resistances | Trend | Remarks |
| EURO/USD | 1.2210/1.2150/1.2090 | 1.2415/1.2475/1.2555 | SIDE | SIDE<1.2150 |
| GBP/USD | 1.3965/1.3710 | 1.4345 | UP | DN<1.3710 |
| USD/JPY | 104.50 | 108 | DN | SIDE>108 |
| USD/INR | 65.90/65.30 | 66.70 | UP | SIDE<65.90 |
| USD/CHF | 0.9575 | 0.9925 | UP | DN <0.9575 |
Technicals: Spot closed above 100 and 200 day major moving averages. 20 day moving is at 65.30. 50 day moving average is at 64.97. 200 day moving average is at 64.45. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying bottom at 64.85 . Important support zone is at 65.90 and later at 65.30. Important resistance is at 66.70. Spot closed above its average level of the day.
Intra day supports and resistances for April contract are:
PP: 66.38,S1:66.27, S2:66.05, R1:66.60, R2:66.71
Hedging strategy for USD/INR: Hedging decisions be taken according to comfort and accounting rates.
CROSS CURRENCY TECHNICALS:
EURO/USD: The pair is above 100 and 200 day major moving averages, but below 20 and 50 day moving averages. Next Major resistance is at 1.2415 and later at 1.2475. Major support is at 1.2150. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying an important top at 1.2415. Weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.2560.
GBP/USD: Trend is sideways in daily chart. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.4375 and weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.4375. The pair is trading above 200 day major moving average. Important resistance is at 1.4375. Important support is at 1.3915 and later at 1.3715.
USD/YEN: The pair is below major moving averages. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 104.56. Important support is at 104.56. Important resistance is at 108 and later at 110.40.
