FX – MORNING UPDATE :
USDINR opened at 83.32 on Thursday and the pair traded in the 83.32-83.41 range. Spot USDINR closed at 83.38, gain of 5 ps for USD as against prior close of 83.33.
RBI reference rate was fixed at 83.37 on 28/03. Apr USD/INR closed at 83.44, gain of 4 ps for USD as compared to prior day’s close of 83.40. Apr Euro/INR closed at 90.18, GBP/INR at 105.35 and Yen/INR at 55.44. 1 year USDINR fwd premia was trading at around 1.57% p.a. FX reserves stood at USD 642.36 bn, as on March 22 nd.
|
PAIRS |
RBI REF RATE (28/03) |
|
USDINR |
83.37 |
|
EURINR |
90.22 |
|
GBPINR |
105.29 |
|
JPYINR |
55.09 |
In March, FPI’S bought Rs 32927 Cr of Equities and bought Rs 13818 Cr of debt . In FY 23-24, FII’S have net bought Rs 206279 Cr of Equities and have net bought Rs 123120 Cr of debt.
Benchmark Nifty climbed 203 points (0.92%) on Thursday. US S&P closed flat (0%) on Friday. Nikkei climbed 0.04% and Hang Seng declined 1% on Friday.
Euro is now at 1.0793, Pound at 1.2624, Yen at 151.38.
Commodities: Gold is now at USD 2233 and WT1Crude at USD 83/Brent at USD 87.
Interest rates: USD 10 Yr yield is at 4.22% and 3 m libor closed at 5.59%. Indian 10 yr benchmark yield closed at 7.07%.
Economic news: Rupee declined 1.46% against USD in FY23-24. USDINR closed at 83.38 as against 82.18 in March 2023. The fall matches with fwds premia, indicating RBI’S inclination to limit Rupee decline to fwd curve. RBI has intervened at both sides of the market to keep the pair in a very tight range. The pair’s range was 81.61-83.70 in FY 23-24. Rupee also declined only 1% against Euro in FY23-23. The pair ended at 89.94 as against 89.05 in March 2023. Rupee declined 3.84% against GBP to end at 105.22 as against 101.32 in March 2023.
Indian Feb Core sector grew by 6.7%, up from Jan reading of 4.1%. Coal production climbed 11.6%, Crude production grew by 7.9%, fertilizer production climbed 9.5%, steel sector grew by 8.4%.
US PCE price index rose 0.3% mom below expectation of of 0.4% mom. Core PCE price index (excluding food and energy) rose 0.3% mom, matched expectations. Over the 12-month period, PCE price index accelerated from 2.4% yoy to 2.5% yoy, matched expectations. Core PCE price index slowed from upwardly revised 2.9% yoy to 2.8% yoy, matched expectations
Data highlights: – US Weekly jobless claims was reported at 210k, pending home sales climbed 1.6% m/m.
-US Personal income climbed 0.3% m/m, spending rose more than expected by 0.8% m/m, Core PCE index climbed 0.3% m/m, as expected.
-German retail sales declined -1.9% m/m.
-UK GDP(final) declined -0.3% q/q.
Monday’s calendar : – US ISM(mfrg) and construction spending.
|
USD/INR |
|
83.41 |
83.32 |
|
|
EUR/USD |
1.0793 |
1.0806 |
1.0768 |
|
|
GBP/USD |
1.2624 |
1.2645 |
1.2609 |
|
|
USD/JPY |
151.38 |
151.50 |
151.18 |
Daily Support/Resistance table
|
Currency Pairs |
Pivot |
R1 |
R2 |
R3 |
S1 |
S2 |
S3 |
|
EURO/USD |
1.0789 |
1.0810 |
1.0827 |
|
1.0772 |
1.0751 |
|
|
GBP/USD |
1.2626 |
1.2643 |
1.2662 |
|
1.2607 |
1.2590 |
|
|
USD/JPY |
151.35 |
151.52 |
151.67 |
|
151.20 |
151.03 |
|
|
USD/INR |
83.37 |
83.42 |
83.46 |
|
83.33 |
83.28 |
|
MAJOR SUPPORTS/RESISTANCES AND TREND TABLE
|
Currency Pair |
Supports |
Resistances |
Trend |
Remarks |
|
EURO/USD |
1.09 |
1.0835/1.0865 |
DN |
UP>1.0875 |
|
GBP/USD |
1.2575 |
1.2670/1.28 |
DN |
SIDE>1.2670 |
|
USD/JPY |
149/146.50/144.35 |
152.50 |
UP |
SIDE<149 |
|
USD/INR |
83.20 |
83.47/83.70/84.10 |
UP |
SIDE<83. |
|
USD/CHF |
0.8890/0.8725 |
0.91 |
UP |
DN<0.8725 |
Technicals: Spot closed above major moving averages.20 day moving average is at 83.01. 50 day moving average is at 83. 200 day moving average is at 82.91. Daily MACD is in buy zone. Important support is at 83.20 and important resistance is at 83.47/83.70. Spot closed above the average level of the day.
Intraday supports and resistances for April contract are:
PP: 83.42, S1:83.38, S2:83.32, R1:83.48, R2:83.52.
Hedging strategy: Hedging decisions be taken according to comfort and accounting rates.
However on directional basis, suggest the following:
USD imports be hedged on decline to 83.20.
CROSS CURRENCY TECHNICALS:
EURO/USD: The pair is below major moving averages. Major resistance is at 1.09/1.10. Next major support is at 1.07. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying an important support at 1.07. Weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.1140.
GBP/USD: The pair is between major moving averages. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.29 and weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.2895. Important support is at 1.2575. Important resistance is at 1.28/1.29.
USD/YEN: The pair is above major moving averages. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 146.50. Important resistance is at 152.50 and support is at 149/146.50.
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