FX – MORNING UPDATE :
USDINR opened at 83.35 y’day and the pair traded in the 83.33-83.38 range. Spot USDINR closed at 83.38, gain of 4 ps for USD as against prior close of 83.34.
RBI reference rate was fixed at 83.36 on 07/12. Dec USD/INR closed at 83.41 y’day, gain of 5 ps for USD as compared to prior day’s close of 83.36. Dec Euro/INR closed at 89.89, GBP/INR at 104.96 and Yen/INR at 57.65. 1 year USDINR fwd premia was trading at around 1.62% p.a. FX reserves stood at USD 598 bn as on Nov 24 th. FX reserves climbed USD 3 bn.
|
PAIRS |
RBI REF RATE (07/12) |
|
USDINR |
83.36 |
|
EURINR |
89.73 |
|
GBPINR |
104.67 |
|
JPYINR |
56.99 |
In Nov, FPI’S have bought Rs 16651 Cr of Equities and bought Rs 14106 Cr of debt . In 2022-23 fiscal year, FII’S have net sold Rs 27593 Cr of Equities and have net bought Rs 838 Cr of debt.
Benchmark Nifty declined 36 points (0.16%) y’day. US S&P climbed 36 points (0.80% y’day. Nikkei declined 1.77% and Hang Seng climbed 0.80% y’day.
Euro is now at 1.0787, Pound at 1.2591, Yen at 143.12.
Commodities: Gold is now at USD 2033 and WT1Crude at USD 70/Brent at USD 75.
Interest rates: USD 10 Yr yield is at 4.17% and 3 m libor closed at 5.64%. Indian 10 yr benchmark yield closed at 7.25%.
Economic news: RBI’s bi-monthly monetary policy decision will be known today.
US employment data awaited later today. Eurozone GDP growth in Q3 was finalized at 0.1% qoq.
JPY gained on signal from BOJ that it will be ending its negative interest rate soon.
Data highlights: – US Weekly jobless claims was reported at 220k. Building permits climbed 2.3% m/m.
-German Industrial production declined -0.4% m/m.
Friday’s calendar : – US nonfarm payrolls
|
USD/INR |
|
83.38 |
83.33 |
|
|
EUR/USD |
1.0787 |
1.0818 |
1.0755 |
|
|
GBP/USD |
1.2591 |
1.2614 |
1.2543 |
|
|
USD/JPY |
143.12 |
147.32 |
141.71 |
Daily Support/Resistance table
|
Currency Pairs |
Pivot |
R1 |
R2 |
R3 |
S1 |
S2 |
S3 |
|
EURO/USD |
1.0788 |
1.0821 |
1.0851 |
1.0884 |
1.0758 |
1.0725 |
1.0695 |
|
GBP/USD |
1.2582 |
1.2621 |
1.2653 |
1.2692 |
1.2550 |
1.2511 |
1.2480 |
|
USD/JPY |
144.39 |
147.07 |
150 |
152.68 |
141.46 |
138.78 |
135.85 |
|
USD/INR |
83.36 |
83.40 |
83.42 |
|
83.34 |
83.30 |
|
MAJOR SUPPORTS/RESISTANCES AND TREND TABLE
|
Currency Pair |
Supports |
Resistances |
Trend |
Remarks |
|
EURO/USD |
1.0735/1.0665 |
1.0960/1.1018 |
SIDE |
UP>1.1018 |
|
GBP/USD |
1.2560/1.2448 |
1.2745 |
UP |
SIDE<1.2440 |
|
USD/JPY |
141.50 |
149.70/151.75 |
DN |
UP>149.70 |
|
USD/INR |
83.03/82.80 |
83.47 |
UP |
SIDE<83.02 |
|
USD/CHF |
0.8745 |
0.8950 |
DN |
UP>0.8950 |
Technicals: Spot closed above 50 day average and 200 day moving averages.20 day moving average is at 83.31. 50 day moving average is at 83.26.200 day moving average is at 82.62. Daily MACD is in buy zone. Important support is at 83.03/82.80 and important resistance is at 83.48. Spot closed above the average level of the day.
Intraday supports and resistances for Dec contract are:
PP: 83.39, S1:83.37, S2:83.33, R1:83.43, R2:83.45.
Hedging strategy: Hedging decisions be taken according to comfort and accounting rates.
However on directional basis, suggest the following:
USD exports be hedged at 83.45/83.50. Imports be hedged at 83.05 for 3 months.
CROSS CURRENCY TECHNICALS:
EURO/USD: The pair is above all major moving averages. Major resistance is at 1.0960/1.1018. Next major support is at 1.0820/1.0735/1.0665. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying an important top at 1.1018. Weekly MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.0450.
GBP/USD: The pair is above all major moving averages. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.2035 and weekly MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.2035. Important support is at 1.2528/1.2440/1.2375. Important resistance is at 1.2745.
USD/YEN: The pair is below all major averages. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 151.75. Important resistance is at 149.70/151.75 and support is at 141.50.
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