FX RATES AND USDINR FWDS :
Major developments:
USD is now at 83.22. USDINR opened at 83.21. Fwd premia – 1 year fwd premia is at 1.81% p.a.
-US Dollar movement against majors was stable y’day, despite Israel-Hamas war.
-Indian CPI, IIP and US CPI are important data events for the week.
USDINR View: RBI’S intervention keeps Rupee away from significant decline. On the downside, USDINR may have strong support at 83/82.80. Rupee’s Monthly range (hi/lo) is the lowest in last 15 months. It shows how volatility is being controlled by RBI. Implied volatility is below 3% p.a. now. It used to average 5% and spike to 8% during Rupee weakness. Expect 83-83.70 range for USDINR in Oct.
RBI rates
| Trade Date | 1 USD | 1 GBP | 1 EUR | 100 YEN |
| 9-Oct-23 | 83.25 | 101.59 | 87.79 | 55.81 |
-USDINR is at 83.22.Prior day’s close was 83.27.
-Indian Equity indices decline.
-Indian 10 year G-SEC yield is at 7.37%.
-USDINR 1 yr fwd premia is at 1.81%.
USDINR @ 83.22, EUR/USD@ 1.0561, GBP/USD @ 1.2225, USD/JPY @ 148.75, EUR/INR @ 87.88, GBP/INR @ 101.73, JPY/INR @ 55.96.
Gold@1860, Brent Crude @ 87.75, Nifty @ 19616(+104), 10 Year G-SEC @ 7.37%.
Hedging:
USDINR payables can be hedged at 83. Eur receivables can be hedged on rally to 88/88.70.
GBPINR receivables can be hedged closer to 102.40/103.75.
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