10/05/2018
USDINR opened gap up at 67.36 y’day and the pair traded in the 67.23-67.47 range. Spot USDINR closed at 67.26, gain of 19 ps for USD as against prior close of 67.07.RBI reference rate was fixed at 67.38. Rupee recovered to 67.23 after hitting 67.47 as RBI sold USD through nationalized banks. Rupee opened lower as US annulled Iran nuclear deal. However, there was optimism on FDI flows from Wal-Mart-Flipkart deal. May USD/INR closed at 67.42, gain of 19 ps for USD as compared to prior day’s close of 67.23. May Euro/INR closed at 80.22, GBP/INR at 91.68 and Yen/INR at 61.52.
FII’S sold Rs 6467 Cr of Indian Equities in April . FII’S also sold 11868 Cr of Indian debt securities in April . On a cumulative basis, FII’S have bought Rupees 7979 Cr of Indian Equities till date for this calendar year and have sold Rupees 15023 Cr of Indian debt in this calendar year till date.
Benchmark Nifty climbed 0.22% y’day. DOW climbed 182 points (0.75%) Y’day.Nikkei declined 0.44% and Hang seng climbed 0.44% y’day.
Euro is now at 1.1865 , Pound at 1.3568,Yen at 109.71
Commodities: Gold is now at USD 1313 and WT1Crude at USD 71.73.
Interest rates: USD 10 Yr yield is at 3.00% and 3 m libor closed at 2.36%. Indian 10 yr benchmark yield closed at 7.71%.
Economic news: IMF report projects Indian GDP to grow at 7.4% in this year and accelerate further to 7.8% as the economy has recovered from demonetisation and GST introduction.
US based Wal mart announced acquistion of flip kart for USD 16 bn, which includes new Equity infusion of USD 2 bn. Wal Mart now owns 77% of flip kart. This is the largest acquistion for Wal Mart.
BOE rate decision and US CPI are the focus events for the day.
Data Highlights: – US PPI climbed 0.1% m/m.
Thursday’s calendar: – US Weekly jobless claims and CPI
-UK industrial and manufacturing production and BOE meet.
| USD/INR | 67.47 | 67.23 | |
| EUR/USD | 1.1865 | 1.1897 | 1.1823 |
| GBP/USD | 1.3568 | 1.3606 | 1.3500 |
| USD/JPY | 109.71 | 109.87 | 109 |
Daily Support/Resistance table
| CurrencyPairs | Pivot | R1 | R2 | R3 | S1 | S2 | S3 |
| EURO/USD | 1.1856 | 1.1889 | 1.1930 | 1.1963 | 1.1815 | 1.1782 | 1.1741 |
| GBP/USD | 1.3550 | 1.3600 | 1.3657 | 1.3707 | 1.3493 | 1.3443 | 1.3386 |
| USD/JPY | 109.57
|
110.14 | 110.44 | 111.01
|
109.27 | 108.70 | 108.40
|
| USD/INR | 67.32 | 67.41 | 67.56 | 67.17 | 67.08 |
MAJOR SUPPORTS/RESISTANCES AND TREND TABLE
| Curency Pair | Supports | Resistances | Trend | Remarks |
| EURO/USD | 1.1910/1.1710 | 1.2150/1.2210 | DN | UP>1.2210 |
| GBP/USD | 1.3460/1.33 | 1.3710/1.3965 | DN | UP>1.3965 |
| USD/JPY | 108/107 | 110 | UP | SIDE<108 |
| USD/INR | 66.50/66.25/66.05 | 66.94/67.40 | UP | SIDE<66.05 |
| USD/CHF | 0.9735/0.9575 | 1.0040 | UP | DN <0.9575 |
Technicals: Spot closed above 100 and 200 day major moving averages. 20 day moving is at 66.10. 50 day moving average is at 65.43. 200 day moving average is at 64.58. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying bottom at 64.85 . Important support zone is at 66.50 and later at 66.25/65.90. Important resistance is at 67.40. Spot closed below its average level of the day.
Intra day supports and resistances for May contract are:
PP: 67.48,S1:67.33, S2:67.24, R1:67.57, R2:67.72
Hedging strategy for USD/INR: Hedging decisions be taken according to comfort and accounting rates.
CROSS CURRENCY TECHNICALS:
EURO/USD: The pair is below all major moving averages. Next Major resistance is at 1.2150 and later at 1.2210. Major support is at 1.1910 and later at 1.1710. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying an important top at 1.2415. Weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.2560.
GBP/USD: Trend is bearish in daily chart. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.4375 and weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.4375. The pair is trading below all major moving average. Important resistance is at 1.3710 and later at 1.3965. Important support is at 1.3460 and later at 1.33.
USD/YEN: The pair is below 200 day major moving average, but above 50 and 100 day moving averages. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 104.56. Important support is at 108. Important resistance is 110.
