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FX – MORNING UPDATE :

FX – MORNING UPDATE :
  • By Goodwill
  • 455 Comments
  • September 8, 2023

FX – MORNING UPDATE :

USDINR opened at 83.13 y’day and the pair traded in the 83.11-83.22 range. Spot USDINR closed at 83.22, gain of 8 ps for USD as against prior close of 83.14. Rupee declined as Oil prices rose and USD Index rallied.

RBI reference rate was fixed at 83.18 on 07/09. Sep USD/INR closed at 83.24, gain of 6 ps for USD as compared to prior day’s close of 83.18. Sep Euro/INR closed at 89.26, GBP/INR at 103.81 and Yen/INR at 56.73. 1 year USDINR fwd premia was trading at around 1.66% p.a.  FX reserves stood at USD 594 bn as on Aug 25 th. FX reserves declined by USD 8 bn.

PAIRS

RBI REF RATE (07/09)

USDINR

83.18

EURINR

89.18

GBPINR

103.96

JPYINR

56.40

In Aug, FPI’S have bought Rs 17041 Cr of Equities and bought Rs 5009 Cr of debt . In 2022-23 fiscal year, FII’S have net sold Rs 27593 Cr of Equities and have net bought Rs 838 Cr of debt.

Benchmark Nifty climbed 116 points (0.59%) y’day. US S&P declined 14 points (0.32%) . Nikkei declined 0.73% and Hang Seng declined 1.32%.

Euro is now at 1.0730, Pound at 1.2506, Yen at 147.59.

Commodities: Gold is now at USD 1950 and WT1Crude at USD 86/Brent at USD 89.50.

Interest rates: USD 10 Yr yield is at 4.29% and 3 m libor closed at 5.65%. Indian 10 yr benchmark yield closed at 7.19%.

Economic news: Rupee continued to be under pressure, tracking broad rally in USD Index.

Pound declined as BOE Governor told UK Parliament that the central bank is closer to terminal rates. Further aggravating the downfall, a BoE survey unveiled a stark decline in businesses’ on-year inflation expectations, thus spotlighting intensified speculation over the path of BoE’s tightening.

Data highlights: – US Weekly jobless claims declined to 216k and building permits declined -1.5% m/m.

EU industrial production declined -2.2% y/y and German industrial production declined -0.8% m/m.

Friday’s calendar : No major data release

USD/INR

 

  

 83.22

83.11

EUR/USD

1.0718

  

1.0731

1.0685

GBP/USD

1.2498

  

1.2508

1.2445

USD/JPY

147.18

  

147.38

146.58

Daily Support/Resistance table

Currency Pairs

Pivot

R1

R2

R3

S1

S2

S3

EURO/USD

1.0706

1.0726

1.0752

1.0772

1.0679

1.0660

1.0633

GBP/USD

1.2476

1.2507

1.2542

1.2573

1.2441

1.2410

1.2375

USD/JPY

147.40

147.76

148.24

148.60

146.92

146.56

146.08

USD/INR

83.18

83.25

83.29

 

83.14

83.07

 

MAJOR SUPPORTS/RESISTANCES AND TREND TABLE

Currency Pair

Supports

Resistances

Trend

Remarks

EURO/USD

1.0635

1.0945/1.1065

DN

UP>1.1070

GBP/USD

1.2350

1.28/1.30/1.3150

DN

UP>1.2820

USD/JPY

144.50/142

151

UP

SIDE<143.90

USD/INR

82.93/82.86/82.78

83.35/83.47/83.68

UP

SIDE<82.78

USD/CHF

0.87/0.8550

0.8820

DN

SIDE>0.8820

Technicals: Spot closed above 50 and 200 day moving averages.20 day moving average is at 82.86. 50 day moving average is at 82.50.200 day moving average is at 82.26. Daily MACD is in buy zone. Important support is at 82.93/82.86/82.78 and important resistance is at 83.35. Spot closed above the average level of the day.

Intraday supports and resistances for Sep contract are:

PP: 83.22, S1:83.15, S2:83.07, R1:83.31, R2:83.37.             

Hedging strategy: Hedging decisions be taken according to comfort and accounting rates.

However on directional basis, suggest the following:

USD exports be hedged at 83.30/83.50. Imports be hedged at 82.80 for 1 month.

CROSS CURRENCY TECHNICALS:

EURO/USD: The pair is below major moving averages. Major resistance is at 1.0945/1.1065/1.1140/1.1275. Next major support is at 1.0635. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying an important top at 1.1275. Weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.1275.

GBP/USD: The pair is still above 200 day moving averages, but below 50 and 100 day averages. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.3145 and weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.3145. Important support is at 1.2350. Important resistance is at 1.2820/1.30/1.3145.

USD/YEN: The pair is above 50 and 200 day major averages. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 137.35. Important resistance is at 151 and support is at 144/142.

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