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Sensex down 400 pts, Nifty at 17,100; metals, realty hit.
All sectoral indices in the red
All eyes on Russia. Calibrate positions carefully.
The BSE Sensex fell 59 points to 57,833 on Friday, while the Nifty50 declined 28.30 points to 17,276. Share Market LIVE Updates: Indian equities fell on Monday while Asian shares pared losses after presidents Joe Biden and Vladimir Putin agreed to hold a summit to and resolve the Ukraine crisis. Warnings that Russia could invade its neighbour had sent markets spiralling in the past week
The standoff, along with the worry that tightening Federal Reserve monetary policy could choke growth in the world’s biggest economy, raise the likelihood of more swings in markets in an already volatile year.
The market is stuck in a range which is between 17200 and 17500. Until we do not get past either level, we will not witness a meaningful move. A break of either side will result in a 300-400 point move”
It is advisable not to trade aggressively and should avoid carrying positions overnight. As far as levels are concerned, we witnessed some nervousness around 17450 – 17500. So if bulls have to regain any strength, they need to surpass these levels with some authority.
On the flipside, 17000 followed by 16800 is to be seen as make or break levels. In case of any aberration on the global front, the market will have to face challenging times after sliding below this sacrosanct support. Let’s be hopeful and keep a close watch on all these developments.
Oil slips on Ukraine summit plan, prospect of Iran nuclear deal
Oil prices fell on Monday on a plan for U.S. President Joe Biden and Russia’s Vladimir Putin to hold a summit on the Ukraine crisis and on prospects of a nuclear deal between Iran and world powers in the next week or two.
The index saw elevated volatility last week amid escalated geopolitical issues and spike in crude oil prices. In the process, the Nifty managed to hold the key support threshold of 16800 for fourth time in last two months while absorbing host of negative news, highlighting inherent strength. As a result, weekly price action formed a small bull candle with shadows on either side, indicating rise in volatility while sustaining above key support of 16800
Key point to highlight is that, in the ongoing corrective move (since mid-January 2022) the index has failed to sustain above previous week’s high. Therefore, in the coming expiry week, a decisive close above last week’s high (17490) along with cool off in India VIX (that gauges market sentiment) would be the key monitorable that would set the stage for a gradual move towards 17800 in coming weeks as it is confluence of: a) 61.8% retracement of mid-January decline (18350-16836), is at 17772 b) February high is placed at 17794
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