Indianomics: Experts discuss COVID-19 impact on economy:
WPI in double digits:
Market in surge mood due to slight reduction in spread and vaccines.
Markets may be cheerful because they are forward-looking but economists are worried about ‘the here and the now’, and now a series of downgrades is being seen to gross domestic product (GDP) forecast because economists have some idea where the COVID – at least current curve – may be peaking.
The latest downgrade has come from Citi. The brokerage house believes that India’s gross value added (GVA) will be nearly 9.2 percent versus its original projection of 11.6 percent for the current year. HSBC too had cut the expected GVA number to 7 percent versus its earlier projection of 10.2 percent.
Citi is expecting a 2.4 percent cut, HSBC is expecting a 3.2 percent cut and Nomura is expecting a 1.8 percent cut in its GDP forecast for FY22.
Pranjul Bhandari, Chief India Economist of HSBC; Sajjid Chinoy, Chief India Economist of JPMorgan, and Samiran Chakraborty, Chief Economist at Citi, discussed this further.
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