USDINR opened at 81.91 y’day and the pair traded in the 81.89-82.64 range. Spot USDINR closed at 82.61, gain of 81 ps for USD as against prior close of 81.80.
RBI reference rate was fixed at 82.28 on 06/12. Dec USD/INR closed at 82.49, gain of 53 ps for USD as compared to prior day’s close of 81.96. Dec Euro/INR closed at 86.70, GBP/INR at 100.63 and Yen/INR at 60.61. USDINR fwd premia was trading at around 1.70% p.a. FX reserves stands at USD 550 bn as on Nov 25th. FX reserves rose by USD 2.9 bn as compared to previous week.
|PAIRS||RBI REF RATE (06/12)|
In Nov, FII’S have bought Rs 28042 Cr of Equities till date and have bought Rs 328 Cr of debt till date. In this Calendar Year, FII’S have sold close to Rs 1.18 lac Cr worth of Equities. In 2021-22, FII’S net sold Rs 128897 cr in Equity segment and have net bought Rs 4805 cr of debt. In 2020-21 financial Year, FII’S nett bought Rs 2,74,203 Cr of Equities and have sold Rs 42820 Cr in debt.
Benchmark Nifty declined 58 points (0.31%) y’day. DOW declined 350 points y’day (1.03%). Nikkei climbed 0.24% and Hang Seng declined 0.40% y’day.
Euro is now at 1.0471, Pound at 1.2142, Yen at 137.
Commodities: Gold is now at USD 1785 and WT1Crude at USD 74/Brent at USD 79.50.
Interest rates: USD 10 Yr yield is at 3.54% and 3 m libor closed at 4.77%. Indian 10 yr benchmark yield closed at 7.22%.
Economic news: RBI rate decision will be known early today. RBI is expected to hike rates by 35 bps. USDINR premia declined further to 1.7% p.a. Rupee decline accelerated despite USDINDEX showing signs of further weakness.
World bank upgraded Indian GDP growth forecast to 6.9% in this fiscal, citing higher resilience of economy to Global shocks. Retail inflation is expected to be 7.1%.
US exports of goods and services dropped USD 1.9B over the month in October, while imports rose USD 2.2B. Trade deficit widened from USD -74.1B to USD -78.2B, smaller than expectation of USD -79.4B.
ECB Governing Council member said, “We are very near the neutral rate. There will be another hike or few more hikes.”
US big tech stocks were under pressure led by steep fall in Meta share price. Jitters over Fed’s next week move and guidance weighed down on asset markets. Analysts believe that Fed may be unable to rein in inflation without causing recession as wage pressure continues to tick up.
Data highlights: – German factory orders climbed 0.8% m/m.
-UK PMI(construction) dipped to 50.4.
Wednesday’s calendar : – German industrial production
Daily Support/Resistance table
MAJOR SUPPORTS/RESISTANCES AND TREND TABLE
Technicals: Spot closed above 50, 200 day major moving averages.20 day moving average is at 81.57. 50 day moving average is at 81.89.200 day moving average is at 78.74. Daily MACD is in buy zone. Important support is at 81.95 and important resistance is at 82.70/82.92. Spot closed above its average level of the day.
Intraday supports and resistances for Dec contract are:
PP: 82.38, S1:82.05, S2:81.63, R1:82.81, R2:83.13.
Hedging strategy: Hedging decisions be taken according to comfort and accounting rates.
However on directional basis, suggest the following:
Exports be hedged on rally to 82.70/82.90+.
CROSS CURRENCY TECHNICALS:
EURO/USD: The pair is above 50 and 20 day major moving averages. Major resistance is at 1.0635. Next major support is at 1.0290. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying an important bottom at 0.9535. Weekly MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 0.9535.
GBP/USD: The pair is above 50 and 20 day moving averages. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.1150 and weekly MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.0380. Important support is at 1.2750. Important resistance is at 1.2075/1.19.
USD/YEN: The pair is below 20, 50 and 100 day moving averages. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 152. Important support is at 130.50. Major resistance is at 137.40/140.50/142.25.
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