FX – WEEKLY UPDATE :
WEEKLY SYNOPSIS: 25/08/2023 Currency Map:
| Currency Pairs | WEEK CLOSE | PRIOR CLOSE | % change |
| USD/INR | 82.65 | 83.10 | -0.54 |
| EUR/INR | 89.16 | 90.43 | -1.40 |
| GBP/INR | 103.93 | 105.74 | -1.71 |
| JPY/INR | 56.58 | 57.21 | -1.13 |
Brent Crude closed at USD 84.80 VS prior week close of USD 84.80. Gold closed at USD 1943. Nifty closed at 19265 vs prior week close of 19310. 10 Year G-SEC Yield closed at 7.20%.
Major developments: USDINR traded in the 82.36-83.13 range last week and closed at 82.65, loss of 45 ps for USD as compared to prior week close of 83.10. EUR declined 1.40% w/w and GBP declined 1.71% w/w against Rupee. Indian benchmark Equity index declined 0.23% w/w. 10 Year G-SEC Yield closed at 7.20%. 1-year fwd premia is at 1.62% p.a.
FX reserves stood at USD 594 bn as on Aug 18 th. FX reserves declined by USD 8 bn.
In Aug, FPI’S have bought Rs 11464 Cr of Equities and bought Rs 5692 Cr of debt . In 2022-23 fiscal year, FII’S have net sold Rs 27593 Cr of Equities and have net bought Rs 838 Cr of debt.
Rupee recovered on RBI intervention, IPO inflows and direction to banks to curb arbitrage trading of USDINR between NDF and Indian OTC markets. On squaring off of positions, Rupee gained to 82.35 and finally closed at 82.65.
Indian Q1 GDP data is due for release in coming week.
Considering RBI’S proactive stance, USDINR pair could still get stuck in a tight range. However, with USD gaining against majors, the lower range of the pair could be lifted from 81.70 to 82.25 and upper range may be tolerated till 83.30/83.50.
Hedging advise: Imports be hedged on declined to 82.35. Exports be hedged on rally to 83.15+.
Global developments: USD strength seems to be intensifying as EU and UK economic situation turns gloomier. Analysts were surprised by deep contraction in EU and UK services sector, which has been supporting overall economy for the past few quarters.
UK PMI Composite fell from 50.8 to 47.9, a 31-month low, and first contraction since January. Euro zone Composite PMI declined to 47.0, its lowest in 33 months. EU GDP is now expected to contract. German Bundesbank paints a sobering picture of the German economy, as factors hampering growth include tepid foreign demand combined with escalating financing costs. The bank foresees the economic output remaining largely stagnant for the summer quarter. ECB Chairwoman reiterated that “It’s critically important that inflation expectations remain anchored at 2 per cent.” Lagarde reinforced that the ECB is “deliberately, decisively data-dependent” and committed to taking decisions one meeting at a time.
Even US PMI data declined. PMI Composite fell from 52.0 to 50.4. The survey shows that the service sector-led acceleration of growth in the second quarter has faded, accompanied by a further fall in factory output.
Despite stalling of US economic growth, growth differentials remain in favor of US. This should support USD in near term.
In a symposium speech, Fed Chairman Powell maintained that they “are prepared to raise rates further if appropriate” and reiterated the pledge to “hold policy at a restrictive level until we are confident that inflation is moving sustainably down toward our objective.” On easing of inflation, Powell took a conservative stance by emphasizing that “two months of good data are only the beginning of what it will take to build confidence.”
Fed fund futures are currently still pointing to a hold in September, with 80% chance. Yet, in the wake of Powell’s address, the odds favoring a 25bps rate hike either in November or December rose above the 50% mark.
Technically, EURUSD is on the verge of breaking 200 day moving average support. If that happens, EURUSD could decline to 1.06 initially. GBPUSD is still above 200 day average, which is now at 1.24. Expect GBPUSD to trade in the 1.24-1.2775 range.
Currency technical levels: USDINR: 82.35/82.20 (Supports), 82.70/82.86/83.14 (resistance),
EURINR:90.20(Resistance),88.
GBPINR: Supports: 102( supports), Resistance:105.50(Resistance).
JPYINR: Resistance:57.75, Supports: 54.50 (support).
Hedging advise: USDINR imports be hedged at 82.35 on decline. EUR and GBP exports can be covered on rally to 90 and 105+ respectively.