FX – WEEKLY UPDATE :
WEEKLY SYNOPSIS: 13/10/2023
Currency Map:
|
Currency Pairs |
WEEK CLOSE |
PRIOR WEEK CLOSE |
% change |
|
USD/INR |
83.28 |
83.24 |
|
|
EUR/INR |
87.76 |
87.68 |
|
|
GBP/INR |
101.52 |
101.29 |
0.22 |
|
JPY/INR |
55.60 |
55.88 |
-0.50 |
Brent Crude closed at USD 90.50 VS prior week close of USD 84.50. Gold closed at USD 1932. Nifty closed at 19751 vs prior week close of 19653. 10 Year G-SEC Yield closed at 7.32%.
Major developments: USDINR traded in the 83.12-83.30 range last week and closed at 83.28, gain of 4 ps for USD as compared to prior week close of 83.24. EUR closed flat w/w and GBP climbed 0.22 w/w against Rupee. Indian benchmark Equity index closed higher by 0.5% w/w. 10 Year G-SEC Yield closed at 7.32%. 1-year fwd premia is at 1.73% p.a.
FX reserves declined by USD 3 bn and stood at USD 584 bn as on Oct 6 th. In Oct, FPI’S have sold Rs 6916 Cr of Equities and bought Rs 3146 Cr of debt . In 2022-23 fiscal year, FII’S have net sold Rs 27593 Cr of Equities and have net bought Rs 838 Cr of debt.
USDINR volatility continues to remain subdued, aided by RBI intervention at higher levels. Fwd premia declined to 1.72%. Rupee remains rock steady despite higher Oil prices, steep climb in USD index and FPI outflows. Fall in FX reserves by around USD 3 bn, indicates RBI’S efforts to stem Rupee fall. Considering convergence of negative factors and the possibility of expansion in Middle East conflict, RBI may be pressed to allow decline in Rupee to 83.70 levels.
India’s Sept CPI inflation eased to 5.02%. Food inflation eased to 6.56% . CPI was at 6.83% in Aug. This is the lowest reading in last 3 months. IIP climbed 10.3% in Aug. Mfrg sector climbed 9.3%, mining grew by 12,3%, Power sector climbed 15.3%. IIP has climbed 6.1% in Apr-Aug period.
Hedging advise: Imports be hedged. Exports be hedged gradually.
Global developments: Safe haven assets like Gold soared on Middle East tension. Oil climbed past USD 90. Equity markets steered clear of any big decline despite deep worries. Higher inflation is persistent and looks threatened again by Oil prices. Fed rate expectations and how long will higher rates be maintained seems to weigh down on Crosses and Equities. Though economic data is pivotal, it may be temporarily overshadowed by expansion of conflict in Middle East.
Fed officials pointed to uncertainties around the economy, oil prices and financial markets as supporting “the case for proceeding carefully in determining the extent of additional policy firming that may be appropriate,” according to the minutes released on Wednesday from the Sept. 19-20 meeting.
The relatively higher yields have prompted some Fed officials to acknowledge that higher longer-term yields may be helping to achieve their policy objective. The tone of the minutes, economic projections and policy guidance was hawkish with Fed members expecting rates to be kept higher for even longer. This was reflected in a shallower path of expected rate cuts.
On inflation front, CPI held steady. However, PPI accelerated.
Focus shifts to US retail sales and Israel-Hamas conflict.
Currency technical levels: USDINR: 83.10 (Supports), 83.30/83.47 (resistance),
EURINR:88.40/89.10(Resistance)
GBPINR: Supports: 100.25/99( supports), Resistance:102.50/103.50(
JPYINR: Resistance:56.50/59.50, Supports: 55.40/54.50 (support).
Hedging advise: USDINR imports be hedged on decline. EUR and GBP exports can be covered on rally to 88.50 and 102.50/103.50+ respectively.