FX WEEKLY UPDATE

WEEKLY SYNOPSIS: 20/11/2020

Currency Map:

Currency Pairs WEEKLY CLOSE PRIOR WEEK CLOSE % change
USD/INR 74.15 74.60 -0.60
EUR/INR 87.92 88.26 -0.38
GBP/INR 98.45 98.44 0
JPY/INR 71.40 71.29 0.15

Brent Crude closed at USD 45.11VS prior week close of USD 42.70. Gold closed at USD 1870.

Nifty closed at 12859 vs prior week close of 12780.

10 Year G-SEC Yield closed at 5.88%.

Major developments: USDINR traded in the 74.09-74.63 range and closed at 74.15 as against prior week close of 74.69, gainof 0.60% for Rupee w/w. EUR declined 0.38% and GBP closed flat against Rupee. Indian benchmark Equity indices climbed 0.60% w/w basis. 10 Year G-SEC Yield closed at 5.88%.

Rupee gained on strong inflows. RBI’S USD buying may have stemmed Rupee gains at 74.10. FII inflow was very robust. FII’S added Rs 15000 Cr Equity investment last week. FII’S nett bought Rs 45732 Cr of Indian Equities in Oct . FII’S nett bought Rs 1304 Cr of Indian debt securities in Oct . In this financial year, FII’S have nett bought Rs 142210 Cr of Equities and have sold Rs  29728 Cr in debt. In FY 19-20, FII’s have sold Rs 10200 Cr of Equities and 47393 cr of debt.Indian FX reserves stands at USD 572 bn as on Nov 13 th.

Indian Equity indices extended their rally, notwithstanding surge in Global corona cases.

Global developments:COVID concerns took center stage as US and Europe witnessed surge in new cases and hospitalisations. In the midst of this, US retail sales data growth expanded, but slowed in momentum. Housing data was upbeat. Focus is on US FOMC minutes and consumer spending data.

Important developments in coming week: US Personal income, spending, durables data and FOMC minutes.

Currency range forecast: USDINR:73.80(support)-74.90/75.30(Resistance), EURINR: 87.40(support), GBPINR: 97/96(support), JPYINR: 70-72.(contd.,)

Suggestion: Cover USD import payables on decline to 73.95/73.75. USD receivables can be hedged later+.EURINR payables can be hedged on decline to 87.45. GBPINR receivables hedging can be done on rally to 99levels.

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