FX – WEEKLY UPDATE :
WEEKLY SYNOPSIS: 29/09/2023
Currency Map:
Currency Pairs |
SEP CLOSE |
AUG CLOSE |
% change |
USD/INR |
83.08 |
82.77 |
0.37 |
EUR/INR |
87.94 |
90.22 |
-2.52 |
GBP/INR |
101.67 |
105.09 |
-3.25 |
JPY/INR |
55.81 |
56.63 |
-1.44 |
Brent Crude closed at USD 92 VS prior week close of USD 84. Gold closed at USD 1848. Nifty closed at 19638 vs prior month close of 19253. 10 Year G-SEC Yield closed at 7.21%.
Major developments: USDINR traded in the 82.60-83.33 range in Sep and closed at 83.08, gain of 31 ps for USD as compared to Aug close of 82.77. EUR declined 2.52% m/m and GBP declined 3.25% m/m against Rupee. Indian benchmark Equity index climbed 2% m/m. 10 Year G-SEC Yield closed at 7.21%. 1-year fwd premia is at 1.80% p.a.
FX reserves stood at USD 590 bn as on Sept 22 nd. In Sep, FPI’S have sold Rs 16026 Cr of Equities and bought Rs 768 Cr of debt . In 2022-23 fiscal year, FII’S have net sold Rs 27593 Cr of Equities and have net bought Rs 838 Cr of debt.
USDINR volatility compressed further, aided by RBI intervention at higher levels. Despite steep rally in USD Index and Crude prices, Rupee was not allowed to fall beyond 55 ps on intra month high basis. On a month-to-month close basis, Rupee declined 31 ps. Fwd premia stabilised at around 1.8% p.a.
Indian 10 Year bond yields surged to 7.24% and Equity markets declined after 5% intra month rally in Nifty.
Rupee ‘s sentiment stabilised on news that Indian bonds has been included by JP Morgan in its Emerging bond index which is capitalized at USD 236 bn. Indian bond weightage is likely to be 10%. This implies likely inflows of USD 24 bn. Flows may begin from June 2024 and is likely to be staggered over 10 months. Other institutions like FTSE may also include Indian bonds in its index. This is likely to be positive over a longer period of time.
Indian CAD widened to USD 9.2 bn in Q1, 1.1% of GDP. This is against USD 17.9 bn, 2.1% of GDP in Q1 23. However, CAD was only 1.3 bn, 0.2% of GDP in Q4 23. Trade deficit is likely to widen due to climb in Oil prices.
Indian Core sector grew by 12.1% in Aug. This is the highest reading on 14 months. Cement production, which has a weightage of 5.37 per cent, increased by 18.9 per cent in August, and coal having 10.33 per cent, increased by 17.9 per cent in August, according to government data. Crude Oil production (weightage: 8.98 per cent) increased by 2.1 per cent in August 2023 over August 2022. Electricity generation (weightage: 19.85 per cent) increased by 14.9 per cent in August 2023 over August 2022. Fertilizer, natural gas, petroleum refinery products, and steel increased by 1.8 per cent, 10 per cent, 9.5 per cent, and 10.9 per cent, respectively.
GST Collections climbed 10% y/y to Rs 1.62 lac Cr. Gross receipts from GST in the first half of the current fiscal improved 11% from the year-ago period to ₹9.92 trillion. The average monthly gross collection this fiscal is ₹1.65 trillion, which is 11% more than in the year-ago period.
RBI’S meeting is the focus event in first week of Oct. RBI will maintain status quo.
Hedging advise: Imports be hedged on declined to 82.85. Exports be hedged gradually.
Global developments: USD rally intensified in September, as Fed hinted at higher rates for a longer period, while ECB and BOE hinted that rates have hit peak levels. ECB’S opinion was strengthened by a steep decline in both headline and Core inflation. EU CPI slowed from 5.2% yoy to 4.3% yoy in September, below expectation of 4.5% yoy. CPI core (ex energy, food, alcohol & tobacco) also slowed from 5.3% yoy to 4.5% yoy, below expectation of 4.8% yoy. In US, Core inflation slowed, but headline inflation accelerated due to rally in Crude prices. Core PCE price index slowed from 4.3% yoy to 3.9% yoy, matched expectations.
US Yields rallied to align with Fed’s projections of higher rates for a longer period. 10 Year yield climbed to 4.61%. This triggered decline in Crosses against USD. Euro declined to 1.05, GBP fell to 1.2150 and Yen weakened above 149. US Equity markets declined as higher rates are likely to dent consumer spending in coming quarters.
US Congress passed a stop gap funding bill, which has avoided a possible shutdown.
US appears much more resilient than any other region. Incoming data releases continue to reaffirm the strength of the US economy, while in contrast, Europe is suffering a sharp slowdown in economic growth and China is still dealing with the implosion of its property sector.
This differential in economic growth is increasingly pushing investors towards USD, and the impressive rally in US yields lately has made the dollar even more attractive from an interest rate perspective.
Gold declined steeply and Crude rallied. Crude rally is aided by tighter supply and shrinking US inventory.
Technically, Euro is likely to decline to 1.0250 and GBP is also set for further decline. US Non farm payrolls, to be released on Friday could trigger the next wave of USD rally, if data is better than expected.
Currency technical levels: USDINR: 82.80/82.65 (Supports), 83.30/83.47 (resistance),
EURINR:88.70(Resistance),86.
GBPINR: Supports: 99( supports), Resistance:102.25/103.85(
JPYINR: Resistance:57/59.50, Supports: 54.50 (support).
Hedging advise: USDINR imports be hedged at 82.80 on decline. EUR and GBP exports can be covered on rally to 88.70 and 102.25/103.50+ respectively.
TimothyMes
November 20, 2023tadalafil online australia: tadalafil 10mg coupon – tadalafil price uk
RichardCok
November 21, 2023super kamagra [url=http://kamagra.team/#]buy Kamagra[/url] cheap kamagra
JuliusBleam
November 21, 2023https://sildenafil.win/# generic sildenafil 20mg cost
WilliamNip
November 21, 2023https://edpills.monster/# male ed drugs
TimothyMes
November 21, 2023medicine for erectile: ed pill – new ed drugs
JosephTrile
November 21, 2023best non prescription ed pills: cures for ed – cheap ed drugs
RichardCok
November 21, 2023cost for generic sildenafil [url=https://sildenafil.win/#]canadian pharmacy sildenafil 100mg[/url] price for sildenafil 100 mg
JuliusBleam
November 21, 2023https://sildenafil.win/# sildenafil
TimothyMes
November 22, 2023buy kamagra online usa: Kamagra tablets – buy kamagra online usa
RichardCok
November 22, 2023cheap tadalafil 5mg [url=https://tadalafil.trade/#]tadalafil 30[/url] canada tadalafil generic
JuliusBleam
November 22, 2023https://levitra.icu/# Vardenafil buy online
WilliamNip
November 22, 2023http://kamagra.team/# sildenafil oral jelly 100mg kamagra
TimothyMes
November 22, 2023Levitra 20 mg for sale: Levitra online pharmacy – Vardenafil buy online
JosephTrile
November 23, 2023Levitra online USA fast: Levitra 10 mg best price – Vardenafil price
RichardCok
November 23, 2023Buy Vardenafil online [url=https://levitra.icu/#]Buy Vardenafil 20mg online[/url] Levitra 10 mg buy online
JuliusBleam
November 23, 2023https://edpills.monster/# new ed drugs
Charleskag
November 23, 2023doxycycline buy canada 100mg [url=https://doxycycline.forum/#]doxycycline buy online[/url] doxycycline 100mg for sale
Scottanelo
November 23, 2023cipro for sale: buy ciprofloxacin online – cipro pharmacy
Jamesnal
November 23, 2023https://ciprofloxacin.men/# buy cipro online usa
Scottanelo
November 24, 2023ciprofloxacin generic: Buy ciprofloxacin 500 mg online – ciprofloxacin generic price
Charleskag
November 24, 2023buy cipro [url=http://ciprofloxacin.men/#]buy ciprofloxacin online[/url] ciprofloxacin 500 mg tablet price
VernonBor
November 24, 2023prinzide zestoretic: buy lisinopril online – zestril 10 mg in india
Jamesnal
November 24, 2023https://ciprofloxacin.men/# cipro for sale
Scottanelo
November 24, 2023buy cipro cheap: cipro ciprofloxacin – ciprofloxacin mail online
Charleskag
November 25, 2023п»їcipro generic [url=https://ciprofloxacin.men/#]ciprofloxacin without insurance[/url] cipro 500mg best prices
Jamesnal
November 25, 2023http://ciprofloxacin.men/# ciprofloxacin generic
VernonBor
November 25, 2023cost of lisinopril 10 mg: zestril 10mg – generic zestril
Scottanelo
November 25, 2023can you buy zithromax over the counter: buy cheap generic zithromax – zithromax cost
Charleskag
November 25, 2023buy amoxicillin online mexico [url=http://amoxicillin.best/#]purchase amoxicillin online[/url] amoxicillin script
Jamesnal
November 26, 2023http://ciprofloxacin.men/# buy cipro
Scottanelo
November 26, 2023doxycycline 100mg cap: doxycycline buy online us – buy cheap doxycycline uk
Charleskag
November 26, 2023lisinopril medicine [url=https://lisinopril.auction/#]buy lisinopril online[/url] lisinopril 25 mg tablet
Jamesnal
November 26, 2023https://lisinopril.auction/# cost of prinivil
VernonBor
November 26, 2023where can i get zithromax over the counter: buy zithromax online fast shipping – where can you buy zithromax
Scottanelo
November 27, 2023buy zestril 20 mg online: Lisinopril 10 mg Tablet buy online – buy cheap lisinopril 40mg
Charleskag
November 27, 2023lisinopril 49 mg [url=http://lisinopril.auction/#]prescription for lisinopril[/url] lisinopril 5 mg buy
Jamesnal
November 27, 2023https://lisinopril.auction/# buy lisinopril online no prescription india
RichardIcold
November 27, 2023canadian pharmacy online: safe canadian pharmacies – canadian discount pharmacy
RobertGLUND
November 27, 2023mexico drug stores pharmacies: mexico drug stores pharmacies – mexico pharmacies prescription drugs
Jamestek
November 27, 2023https://canadiandrugs.store/# canadian pharmacy no rx needed
RobertGLUND
November 28, 2023legitimate canadian pharmacy online: safe online pharmacy – thecanadianpharmacy
RichardIcold
November 28, 2023india pharmacy mail order: online pharmacy india – top online pharmacy india
DanielIdowl
November 28, 2023best online pharmacies without prescription [url=http://buydrugsonline.top/#]online pharmacy no prescription[/url] canadian drug stores online
Jamestek
November 28, 2023http://mexicopharmacy.store/# medication from mexico pharmacy
RobertGLUND
November 29, 2023canada drugs online pharmacy: buy prescription drugs online without doctor – online pharmacy
RichardIcold
November 29, 2023buying prescription drugs in mexico: mexican pharmaceuticals online – mexico drug stores pharmacies
Jamestek
November 29, 2023http://mexicopharmacy.store/# mexico pharmacies prescription drugs
Michaelvam
November 29, 2023can i order generic clomid pills: Buy Clomid Shipped From Canada – cost of generic clomid tablets
MichaelTek
November 29, 2023http://paxlovid.club/# paxlovid buy
Michaelvam
November 30, 2023cost of clomid for sale: Buy Clomid Shipped From Canada – how can i get clomid prices
MichaelTek
November 30, 2023https://paxlovid.club/# paxlovid cost without insurance
Donaldliz
November 30, 2023https://wellbutrin.rest/# wellbutrin 150 mg generic
buy paxlovid online [url=http://paxlovid.club/#]Paxlovid without a doctor[/url] paxlovid for sale
Michaelvam
November 30, 2023neurontin 300 mg coupon: gabapentin best price – neurontin gel
MichaelTek
November 30, 2023https://clomid.club/# how to buy cheap clomid no prescription
MathewDrypE
November 30, 2023Paxlovid buy online http://paxlovid.club/# paxlovid pharmacy
Michaelvam
December 1, 2023drug neurontin: generic gabapentin – neurontin price in india
MichaelTek
December 1, 2023http://clomid.club/# where buy cheap clomid
Michaelvam
December 2, 2023order wellbutrin online uk: buy wellbutrin – wellbutrin adhd
MichaelTek
December 2, 2023http://gabapentin.life/# neurontin 50 mg
MichaelTek
December 2, 2023http://gabapentin.life/# neurontin 1800 mg
Michaelvam
December 2, 2023wellbutrin price: Wellbutrin online with insurance – purchase wellbutrin sr