WEEKLY SYNOPSIS (21/06/19)
|Currency Pairs||WEEKLY CLOSE||PRIOR WEEK CLOSE||% change|
Major highlights: Rupee gained 22 ps last week . Trading range was 69.43-69.97.
-Rupee was boosted by dovish US Fed statement. EURO gained against USD and Crude
climbed on Friday. Gold is close to USD 1400.
-Indian CPI climbed 3.07% in May. IIP climbed 3.6% in April. Trade deficit expanded to USD
15.35 bn in May.
-FII’S were net sellers of Rs 118 Cr of Indian Equities in June till date . FII’S have
bought Rs 8047 Cr of Indian debt securities in June till date . FII’S have nett invested Rs
77765 Cr in Indian Equity and have nett bought Rs 10725 Cr in debt markets in this calendar
year till date.
-Crude climbed as Saudi Arabia insisted on status quo in production cut. US-Iran tensions
also spiked Crude.
-Indian Equity indices remained volatile and Nifty ended the week at 11724.
-Indian RBI MPC minutes showed that members were concerned about economic
momentum, implying further rate cuts in Aug.
-Global developments were dominated by US Fed decision and US-China trade talks.
-US- China trade optimism fuelled rally in riskier assets. US President said that he will be
holding talks with his Chinese counterpart at G-20 meeting.
-US Fed lowered inflation forecast and turned cautious on rates. Markets expect 25 bps rate
cut by Fed in July or Sept meeting, though Fed plots indicate shallow rate cut in 2020.
-ECB Chief indicated possibility of further rate cut or asset purchases.
Next week important events: -G-20 summit meeting and US-China trade talks.
Projected range for coming week: USDINR: 69.10-69.90, EURINR:78-79.50, GBPINR:87.30-90.50, JPYINR: 0.6250-0.6350.
Suggestions: Hedge USD receivables on rally to 70. USD payables can be hedged
on decline to 69.25 levels. EUR Receivables can be hedged at 79-79.50.