FX WEEKLY SYNOPSIS

WEEKLY SYNOPSIS: 21/01/2022

Currency Map:

Currency Pairs WEEKLY CLOSE PRIOR WEEK CLOSE % change
USD/INR 74.42 74.15 0.36
EUR/INR 84.42 85.07 -0.76
GBP/INR 101.30 101.78 -0.47
JPY/INR 65.48 65.17 0.47

Brent Crude closed at USD 87.75 VS prior week close of USD 86.35. Gold closed at USD 1832.Nifty closed at 17617 vs prior week close of 18255. 10 Year G-SEC Yield closed at 6.62%.

Major developments: USDINR traded in the 74.16-74.71 range and closed at 74.42 as against prior week close of 74.15. Rupee declined 0.36% w/w. EUR declined 0.76% and GBP declined 0.47% w/w against Rupee. Indian benchmark Equity index declined 3.5 w/w. 10 Year G-SEC Yield closed at 6.62%. 1 year fwd premia is at 4.72% p.a.

The week was bereft of any major economic data/news. Focus is on Indian budget. There are reports that Govt may ease the path of investment in Indian debt market for overseas investors. This is Rupee positive and could trigger big gains for Rupee. Fed rate hikes may have been factored. Steep climb in Crude has kept Rupee’s gains under check. LIC IPO is scheduled by March end. Strong inflows needs to be watched for its impact on Rupee.

In Jan, FII’S have net sold Rs 8054 cr in Equity segment and have net bought Rs 2696 cr of debt. In this financial year, FII’S have net sold Rs 13270 Cr worth of Indian Equities and have bought Rs 5589 Cr worth of Indian debt. In 2020-21 financial Year, FII’S nett bought Rs 2,74,203 Cr of Equities and have sold Rs  42820 Cr in debt.

Global developments: Focus is now on US Fed meeting in coming week. US Yields have jumped since last meeting on Dec 15 th. US Companies earnings are negatively impacting US tech index Nasdaq. Rate hike and subdued results have dragged US and Global markets lower. US personal spending and income data along with GDP data are key data releases to be watched.

Currency range for next week: USDINR: 74.10/73.80( support), 74.60/74.72 (resistance), EURINR: 83.75 (support)/ 85.25 (Resistance), GBP/INR: 100-102.50, JPY/INR:63.50-65.50.

Suggestions: USD Imports can be covered. EURINR exports can be covered at around 85+. GBPINR exports can be covered at 102+

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