Major developments:

USD is now at 82.47. USDINR opened at 82.31. Fwd premia – 1 year fwdpremia is at 2.33% p.a. 
-Rupee declines, despite softness in USD Index.
US CPI moderated to 0.4% m/m, after climbing 0.5% m/m in Jan.
-Focus is on US PPI, retail sales.
-US Banking fears ebbed. Risk on mode was evident y’day as inflation showed signs of cooling and banking fears faded.
-Expectation is for a pause in Fed’s March 22 nd meeting.
-If Fed signals slow down in rate hikes, USD may be sold off and Equity markets may climb steeply.
-Crude Oil fell steeply as demand estimate was lowered.
USDINR may face steep resistance in the 82.60-82.90 zone. If risk sentiment returns, Rupee could gain. RBI’S action on either side may keep the pair in the 81-83 zone. Exports can be hedged if spot+ fwd premia nears 82.95.

RBI ref rate: 

-USDINR is at 82.41 .Prior day’s close was 82.13.
-Indian Equity indices decline.

-Indian 10 year G-SEC yield is at 7.35%.
-USDINR 1 yr fwd premia is at 2.33%.

USDINR @ 82.41, EUR/USD@ 1.0703, GBP/USD @ 1.2154, USD/JPY @ 133.85, EUR/INR @ 88.27, GBP/INR @ 100.15, JPY/INR @ 61.55.
Gold@1908, Brent Crude @ 80, Nifty @ 17080(-75), 10 Year G-SEC @ 7.35%.

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