FX RATES AND USDINR FWDS

Major developments:

USD is now at 82.81. USDINR opened at 82.65. Fwd premia – 1 year fwd

premia is at 2.05% p.a. 

USDINR fwd premia has climbed from below 1.75% to 2.05%. Indian

Repo rate is 6.25% and US Fed funds rate is 4.25%.

Expect US Fed rates to move higher to 5.25% in next 6 months and Indian repo rate could move by 50 to 75 bps in next 6 months.

This implies fwds to hover in the 1.5% to 2.25% p.a. range.

RBI ref rate:

-USDINR is at 82.81 .Prior day’s close was 82.70.

-Indian Equity indices decline.

-Indian 10 year G-SEC yield is at 7.32%.

-USDINR 1 yr fwd premia is at 2.05%.

USDINR @ 82.81, EUR/USD@ 1.0611, GBP/USD @ 1.2138, USD/JPY @ 133.16, EUR/INR @ 87.86, GBP/INR @ 100.51, JPY/INR @ 62.21

Gold@1800, Brent Crude @ 80, Nifty @ 18236(-184), 10 Year G-SEC @ 7.34%.

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