Major developments:
USD is now at 78.73. USDINR opened at 78.67. Today, the pair could trade in the 78.50-78.84 Zone.
1 year fwd premia is at 3.08% p.a. US employment data, BOE meeting and Opec decision on production are key events for the week.
RBI MPC meeting will conclude on Aug 5th and rate decision will be known on 5 th Aug. RBI is expected to hike rates between 30-50bps.
Indian trade deficit expanded to USD 31 bn in July, due to flattish exports and steep climb in imports.
Exports was at 35.24 bn, almost same as July 2021. This is due to curb in exports of petroleum ,steel and Wheat. Imports surged 43.5% to USD 66.25 bn.
India’s merchandise imports in April -July 2022-23 was $256.43 billion with an increase of 48.12% over $173.12 billion in April -July 2021-22. Exports in Apr-July is at USD 156.41 bn.
Export target for this fiscal is at USD 470 bn. Trade deficit in June was at USD 26.18 bn.Fed members were hawkish y’day and their statement pushed yields higher. USD gained on hawkish comments.
RBI REF RATES:
-USDINR is at 78.73 .Prior day’s close was 78.71
-Indian Equity indices decline.
-Indian 10 year G-SEC yield is at 7.23%.
-USDINR 1 yr fwd premia is at 3.09%.
USDINR @ 78.73, EUR/USD 1.0179, GBP/USD @ 1.2173, USD/JPY @ 133.02, EUR/INR @ 80.14, GBP/INR @ 95.85, JPY/INR @ 59.18.
Gold@1784, Brent Crude @ 100.50, Nifty @ 17268(-76), 10 Year G-SEC @ 7.23%.
