FX RATES AND USDINR FWDS

Major developments:

USD is now at 79.07. USDINR opened at 78.97. Today, the pair could trade in the 78.97-79.15 Zone.  

1 year fwd premia is at 2.95% p.a. Govt announced imposition of export duty on Petrol by Rs 6 and Rs 13 on Diesel.

Export duty was also levied on ATF. Govt said that the above measure is to increase domestic supplies as output is diverted for exports due to higher international realisations.

 Import duty on Gold has been hiked from 7.5% to 12.5% to curb demand as trade deficit is expanding.

The above measures cannot be considered as Rupee positives as lower exports of Crude products can balance fall in Gold imports, if at all it happens.

There is a strong possibility that demand for both for inelastic to some extent. The move could shore up Govt revenues and could help Govt to reduce excise duties on domestic petro prices, if need arises again. 

Indian imports of Crude from Russia has overtaken imports from Saudi.

With this coming at discount, one fails to understand the impact of international crude on Rupee, atleast to the extent of Russian imports. 

-USDINR is at 79.07 .Prior day’s close was 78.97.

-Indian Equity indices decline.

-Indian 10 year G-SEC yield is at 7.40%.

-USDINR 1 yr fwd premia is at 2.95%.

 USDINR @ 79.07, EUR/USD 1.0460, GBP/USD @ 1.2124, USD/JPY @ 134.87, EUR/INR @ 82.72, GBP/INR @ 95.88

 JPY/INR @ 58.64.

 Gold@1801, WTI Crude @ 105.50, Nifty @ 15610(-170), 10 Year G-SEC @ 7.40%.

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