• By Goodwill
  • 56 Comments
  • December 18, 2023

FX RATES AND USDINR FWDS :

Major developments:

USD is now at 82.94. USDINR opened at 82.97. Fwd premia – 1 year fwd premia is at 1.74% p.a
 
-Indian trade deficit for Nov declined to USD 20.58 bn. Imports declined to 54.48 bn from USD
 
65 in Oct, due to slump in Oil import prices. Exports was at USD 33.90 bn vs USD 33.57 bn in Oct.
 
-FII’S pumped INR 32989 Cr in Dec. 
 
-Focus will be on US Core PCE index, to be released on Friday. This is the most preferred inflation gauge for Fed.
 
-Rupee gained on Friday, due to FII and Corporate inflows.
 
USDINR outlook: Rupee’s appreciation bias may continue as overseas developments and Indian macro factors favor Rupee. Exporters can hedge at around 83.25 and importers can hedge at around 82.80 zone. Fwd premia is expected to climb higher as US Yields retrace more than Indian Yields. 
 
RBI rates
Trade Date  1 USD 1 GBP 1 EUR 100 YEN
15-Dec-23 83.18 106.12 91.36 58.6
 
-USDINR is at 82.93.Prior day’s close was 83.02.
 
-Indian Equity indices decline marginally.
 
-Indian 10 year G-SEC yield is at 7.17%.
 
-USDINR 1 yr fwd premia is at 1.74%.
 
USDINR @ 82.94, EUR/USD@ 1.0911, GBP/USD @ 1.2694, USD/JPY @ 142.22, EUR/INR @ 90.50, GBP/INR @ 105.28, JPY/INR @ 58.32. Gold@2022, Brent Crude @ 77, Nifty @ 21424(-32), 10 Year G-SEC @ 7.17%.
 
Hedging:
USDINR payables can be hedged on dips to 83.24/83.18 .
Eur receivables can be hedged now 
GBPINR receivables can be hedged now.
 
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