• By Goodwill
  • 15 Comments
  • November 30, 2023

FX RATES AND USDINR FWDS :

Major developments:

USD is now at 83.33. USDINR opened at 83.35. Fwd premia – 1 year fwd premia is at 1.52% p.a
 
-Indian GDP is to be released today. Q2 GDP is expected to have climbed by 6.8%.
 
-Rupee trades steady.
 
-US Q3 GDP grew at the fastest pace in 2 years with consumer spending climbing 3.6% at annual rate.
 
-US PCE, ISM and spending data will dominate the narrative regarding future rate path.
USDINR outlook: RBI has been selling USD at higher levels, but accepting modest decline. On Oct end USDINR was at 83.26. If Rupee closes below 83.40, it confirms the view that RBI is tolerant to Rupee decline aligned with fwd curve plus few ps. Dollar buying demand is evident as premia is insignificant for near term. FII’S have been net buyers in both Equity and debt segments in Nov. Rupee can gain modestly if FII inflows surface due to MSCI 
rebalancing. RBI could keep Rupee in the 83.25-83.45 range for some more weeks.
RBI rates
Trade Date  1 USD 1 GBP 1 EUR 100 YEN
29-Nov-23 83.31 105.92 91.64 56.59
 
-USDINR is at 83.33.Prior day’s close was 83.29.
-Indian Equity indices dips marginally.
-Indian 10 year G-SEC yield is at 7.26%.
-USDINR 1 yr fwd premia is at 1.52%.
USDINR @ 83.33, EUR/USD@ 1.0970, GBP/USD @ 1.27, USD/JPY @ 147.11, EUR/INR @ 91.47, GBP/INR @ 105.82, JPY/INR @ 56.64. Gold@2043, Brent Crude @ 83, Nifty @ 20062(-35), 10 Year G-SEC @ 7.26%.
 
Hedging:
USDINR payables can be hedged on dips to 83.25 . Eur receivables can be hedged now 
GBPINR receivables can be hedged now.
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    February 28, 2024

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    February 29, 2024

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